Take a Chance On: Bud Norris
August 29th, 2010
DraftGuru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
Owned in only 12% of Yahoo! Leagues and 6% of ESPN Leagues, Bud Norris has recently been ignored by many fantasy owners. Though his overall stats (6-7, 5.03 ERA, 1.43 ERA) may have led to his low ownership numbers, Norris is coming on strong when fantasy owners need him the most. Despite struggling with his command the first part of the season, Norris has been excellent since coming off the DL due to a biceps injury in late June. Before the injury, Norris was 2-5 with a 6.80 ERA, with rates of 5.35 BB/9 and 11.12 K/9. Despite getting knocked around for 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his first start off the DL, Norris has gone 4-2 with a 3.91 ERA, 2.74 BB/9 and 8.09 K/9. Though his K rate is down, 8.09 is still a solid figure and considering his walk rate has fallen by 2.5 per game, the trade-off of strikeouts seems to be worth it. Norris has been at his best in August, going 3-0 with a 3.58 ERA and great overall command (3.44 K/BB).
Bud Norris - Icon SMI
Norris’ strong second half can be partly attributed to his bad luck in the first half. With BABIP of 0.415 and 0.389 in April in May vs. 0.283 and 0.256 in July and August, Norris’ BABIP is now right in line with his career average (0.331 vs. 0.330). His LOB% rate was also on the low end in April in May with 60.6% and 57.5% compared to the league average of 72%. His current 63.8% rate is still below the average and also below his career average, so don’t be surprised to see his August success translate to September. With some good luck, a decreasing walk rate, decreasing LD% and increasing GB%, Norris is looking like a solid option not only for the remainder of the season, but also as a potential sleeper for next season.
As always, feel free to send an questions/comments via email: draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com or hit up the message board below.
Flip That Two Start Pitcher – Week 22
August 29th, 2010
DoubleDown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
The rules are simple: Find SP’s with two starts in the upcoming scoring period that are generally available in 50% or more in mixed leagues. For the purposes of this experiment we will be using the percentages supplied on www.cbssports.com. Our goal is to maximize value for the coming week and then dump him for next week’s choice. An ideal performance under these circumstances would be 1 Win, 10 K’s, and an ERA of 4.25 or better. Flips can be a risky proposition and should only be completed with the assistance of Double Down or under close supervision of another Fantasy Baseball Geek.
This week Dustin Moseley (Owned 13%) becomes one of the least owned flips to date at 13%. When your goal is notching wins using any Yankee starter is a good idea, so Moseley fits the bill. The two starts fell into his lap via some rotation restructuring. He has a 4-2 record and has not really had any terrible outings to date. Start #1 will be at home against the luckiest pitcher in the world, Trevor Cahill, and the A’s on 8/30. Cahill sports a silly and downright unsustainable BABIP of .217. He is a stud and CY Young award candidate DD you are nuts? The Yankees punished him for a loss and 6 runs over 6 innings earlier this season and I expect the beating to continue on the 30th. Start #2 will be at home against Marc Rzepczynski on 9/4. Marc Rz….whatever his name is got lit up by the Yankees in his last outing giving up 8 hits and 6 runs in 3 innings. All of the evidence presented to you should tell you to be green and to Flip That Two-Start Pitcher.
Whether you love me or hate me I am usually right. Follow me on Twitter @DDGeek and keep the emails coming: doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
TWO START PITCHERS WEEK 22
August 28th, 2010
Free Agent Trends – Week 22
August 27th, 2010
DoubleDown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
Week 21 is almost completed and we have some things to discuss for the week ahead. Let’s review the players seeing their fantasy ownership on the move.
Most Added:
Omar Infante is a fantasy goldmine down the stretch as he is on fire and is eligible almost everywhere depending on your leagues rules (possibly 2B, SS, 3B, and OF). Infante is now officially an everyday player following a sizzling July where he hit .429 for the month. He has not slowed down torching August with a .362 AVG, 5 HR, 10 RBI, and 3 SB’s. Infante is legit and should be added in all formats. Owners should love the versatility to plug him into your lineups wherever you have a need.
Omar Infante - Icon SMI
Coco Crisp always looked like a 20/20 candidate, but it has just never happened. It probably never will, but he is healthy again and providing solid production of late. In July he delivered a weak AVG, but chipped in 10 SB’s. In August he is hitting .322 with 3 HR and 9 SB’s. He is a must in AL only and would be a fine 5th OF in deeper mixed formats while he is rolling.
Yuniesky Betancourt is on fire this month whacking 6 jacks with a .324 AVG. DD actually has no interest in recommending him in anything other than AL only. This is the type of situation where all of the good he is capable of has just occurred, so you will be picking him up for the regression to his mean…which is mediocrity.
Chase Headley is currently a nice value play in NL only with 3B and OF eligibility. DD really likes him as a breakout in 2011. His stats this season have been solid as he is on pace for 13 HR, 20 SB’s, and 92 R. At just 26 years of age his best years are right in front of him and I still expect him to press 20/20 with room for even more power by 2012.
Wilson Betemit is a decent enough player, but he is a lot like Betancourt. At this point you just missed the good stuff he provided and now he will revert back to the mean of being a below league average option at 3B. Take a pass people.
Rich Harden is one of those guys with nasty stuff and a DL record to make you nauseous. He recently returned from the DL with shoulder tendinitis. DD likes him in AL only on the road, but is he now a 5 inning pitcher throwing in a hitter’s paradise. His stats on the season are also weak. Harden is a definite mixed league streamer, but if he is facing a good lineup at home you might be in for the old cornhole.
Eric Young, Jr. is healthy and forcing his way into the Rockies lineup. DD would add him in all formats as a 2B or MI because of his prolific speed. EY2 is an absolute burner who over the course of a full season could challenge for the SB crown.
Ivan Nova is a great name. Sounds like either a superhero or adult movie star. Sometimes it is tough to distinguish between the two. Nova is likely getting a spot start against the White Sox on Sunday for the Yankees. DD would certainly add him in AL only, but everyone should temper expectations and be careful as he has an inconsistent minor league record and does not project as a top of the line starter.
Koji Uehara finds himself in the closer committee in Baltimore and has notched 2 of them thus far. The team is atrocious and he does not have the official manager endorsement, so you had better be pretty desperate for saves to have him active. If you are the Closer on a team that features Ty Wiggington as your #3 hitter you are in for a long season waiting for saves.
Cameron Maybin fits the DD mold to a T. He was a prospect that was in the eyes of many in front of both Andrew McCutchen and Dexter Fowler in the toolsy CF pecking order. Flash forward a couple of years and he has lost some of his luster. Maybin is loaded with tools, however, and the Fish will run him out there on most days for the remainder of this season. He has speed, power, will be hitting leadoff, and gets my endorsement for NL only and very deep mixed leagues. DD will be all over him as a 2011 post hype sleeper.
Most Dropped:
Jeremy Hellickson was demoted to the minors to prepare to pitch in relief in September for the Rays. This removes most of his value for this season, but he remains an elite pitching prospect to target on draft day 2011.
Edinson Volquez is potentially going to be out of the Reds rotation as he has been roughed up during his last couple of starts. He had TJ surgery about a year ago and the trend is for pitchers to take closer to 2 years to come all the way back. That would mean he will be a potential steal on draft day 2011.
Javier Vazquez was superb for Atlanta last season, but has stunk up the joint for the Bronx Bombers in his return to the Big Apple. He is temporarily out of the rotation and his decreased velocity coupled with ineffectiveness make him a suspect option for the duration of 2010.
Whether you love me or hate me I am usually right. Follow me on Twitter @DDGeek and keep the emails coming: doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
Potential September Call-ups
August 26th, 2010
DraftGuru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
As rosters expand in September, different teams use this roster expansion for different reasons. A team bound for the playoffs may use the additional roster spots to spell their starters over the last few weeks. A playoff contender can add some additional pitching and bench depth in order to throw fresh arms when needed and a bottom-feeder can call-up prospects to measure how ‘major league ready’ they may be. Below is a short, but meaningful, list of some potential September call-ups to keep an eye on in the coming weeks:
Mark Trumbo - Icon SMI
Jordan Lyles (HOU, SP): Coming into 2010, Lyles was ranked the #3 overall prospect for the Astros and their top overall pitching prospect. Though offered a scholarship to play wide receiver for the University of South Carolina, Lyles was selected as a supplemental 1st round pick by the Astros in 2008. Lyles pitched in Rookie League and Low A ball in his in first season in 2008. In 2009, he pitched exclusively in Low A, putting up a 3.24 ERA with 10.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 1.19 WHIP. Entering 2010, Lyles had yet to turn 20 years old, but started the year at AA, skipping High A all together. After posting a 7-9 record with 3.12 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 rates, Lyles was promoted to AAA. Thus far in AAA, Lyles had two rough starts (6 IP, 8 H, 4 ER; 4 IP, 11 H, 5 ER), but looked solid in his last outing (6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER). Lyles claimed the title of being the youngest pitcher in the Pacific Coast League (AAA) this season by making his debut at the age of 19, a mark held earlier this season by Madison Bumgarner. The overall scouting report on Lyles is that his tall frame (6 foot 4, 185 lbs) and overall athleticism (see: football scholarship) helps him maintain a repetitive, fluid delivery that helps his overall command of pitches. Manager Brad Mills and GM Ed Wade have both made indications as recently as a few weeks ago that Lyles could potentially make his major league debut this season. It’s been speculated that Lyles could even potentially break camp in 2011 as the Astros 5th starter at the age of 20. Of course, there are many variables that can factor into that decision, but any time a team is even considering bringing up a 19 year old pitcher with the talent of Lyles, owners in keeper fantasy leagues need to take note.
Mark Trumbo (LAA, 1B): Over the past few seasons, Trumbo has established himself as the prototypical power hitting first baseman. Last season at AA over 137 games, Trumbo hit 0.291 with 15 HR, 88 RBI. This season, in 50 less AB at AAA, Trumbo is hitting the same (0.291), but is up to 30 HR, 104 RBI, 90 runs with an OPS of 0.911. Though Trumbo has struggled with his plate discipline over the past few seasons (100 K vs. 37 walks last year; 115 K vs. 53 walks this season), Trumbo has improved his walk rates in July (11.1%) and August (18.8%) showing more patience than in the past. With the Angels all but out of the playoff picture, manager Mike Scioscia has been hesitant to call on Trumbo. However, with Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera now splitting duties at 1B and rosters set to expand, don’t be surprised to see the 24 year old Trumbo in a Halos uniform in the next few weeks.
Brandon Allen (ARI, LF): Primarily a 1B in the minors, Allen has made the transition to LF this season, playing a total of 30 games for AAA Reno, committing only 1 error with 44 put-outs. Though he’s set to play LF this season when he gets called up, GM Jerry DiPoto has indicated Allen’s primary position will probably end up being 1B in the long run. Allen has continued to mash in the minors this season, hitting 25 HR with 80 RBI, 72 runs and 0.948 OPS at AAA. This follows seasons of 29/ 75/ 87/ 0.922 and 20/ 75/ 78/ 0.876 in under 135 games both seasons. Only 24, Allen has tremendous power upside and though he has more value in keeper leagues, he could still provide some pop down the stretch if given everyday AB (which seems likely considering Allen is “definitely in our plans” according to DiPoto).
Yunesky Maya (WAS, SP): A somewhat under the radar signing by the Nationals at the end of July, the 28 year old Cuban defector signed with the Nats for a reported $4 million over 6 years. In his last season in the Cuban National Series (equivalent of MLB) in 2008-2009, Maya was 13-4 with 7 complete games, a 2.22 ERA and finished second to only Aroldis Chapman (130) in K’s with 119, earning the equivalent of the Cy Young Award. In three appearances thus far in the minors, Maya’s given up 7 earned runs in 11 innings. However, 6 of those runs came in his last appearance over 4 innings. Of the other 7 innings he’s pitched, he gave up only 3 hits and 1 run with 5 K’s and 2 walks. Despite a blister issue on his throwing hand (right), Maya is slated to make one more start at a higher level, either AA or AAA, then be called up on September 1. Teamed with fellow Cuban defector Livan Hernandez, the transition should be much easier for Maya than other Cuban players, so don’t be surprised if he has some success early on.
Of course, there are many other September call-ups that could make an impact both down the stretch and in the future. Any other prospects you’re interested in seeing? Hit up the message board below to let your thoughts be heard.
As always, feel free to send any questions/comments via email: draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
Fantasy Football Preview!
August 26th, 2010
WWW.BIG2SHOW.COM has all of your fantasy football previews
And we are now on YouTube http://bit.ly/ddA4LT
We cover every position and have a kicker theory that will change your strategy forever. Winning starts now!
TWO START PITCHERS WEEK 21
August 23rd, 2010
Free Agent Trends – Week 21
August 21st, 2010
DoubleDown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
Week 20 is almost completed and we have some things to discuss for the week ahead. DD is going lightning round this week as I now have a million kids running around my house. Let’s review the players seeing their fantasy ownership on the move.
Most Added:
Hong-Chih Kuo is “temporarily” filling in for Jonathan Broxton while he sorts out his issues in less pressurized situations. He should be added in all formats for owners looking for saves as the Ox looks fatigued.
Hisanori Takahashi - Icon SMI
Hisanori Takahashi has been named “the guy” by Charlie Manuel following the premature ending to K-Rod’s season. K-Rod is out with a thumb injury, but his off the field MMA inspired adaptation of Meet the Parents might end up costing him in the long run. Takahashi is a must add for anyone looking for saves. As a reliever Takahashi has a 2.56 ERA, so the pen certainly suits him better than the rotation (5.01 ERA as a starter)
Pat Burrell is pretty much the same guy we have seen over the last few years, but the Rays prematurely gave up on him. The Giants grabbed him from the heap and he is still a 30 HR threat that will hit .250. NL only owners should run him out there for the power provided he maintains the playing time.
David Murphy has seen a bump in playing time with Nelson Cruz on the shelf. He actually had been pushing Julio Borbon to the pine more often than not even before the Cruz DL stint. He is a better real baseball player than a fantasy asset. AL only is the place to use him as a 5th OF. If he is your answer in most mixed leagues you should probably pack it in and focus on football.
Daniel Hudson has certainly taken to the NL; pitching deep into games and earning wins in 3 out of his last 4 starts. DD likes him as a streamer on the road because I fear we will see him “smush” up your ratios (see Jersey Shore dictionary) when pitching at Chase Field in the coming weeks.
Jhoulys Chacin has a new Yo Lease on life following his recent promotion back to the big leagues and into the Rockies rotation. Chacin has excellent life on his pitches, solid K potential, and a driven offense behind him. Love him in NL only and deep mixed.
Brandon Lyon had to know it was only a matter of time before the flattest 100 mph fastball in the history of baseball from the hand of Matt Lindstrom deflated. Well not really as Lindy went on the DL, but he has been a bloated WHIP roaster to the tune of 1.638. How the hell does a guy keep a Closer gig while allowing that many base-runners? Lyon is a serviceable short term save option, but also keep your eye on the ominous presence of the lurking and affective Wilton Lopez.
Jeanmar Gomez and his 5.194 ERA at AAA Columbus stunk like a pair of grungy panties on the floor of the set of ABC’s The Bachelor Pad before his promotion. The Indians called him up and he promptly is 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA after 4 starts. There is a 100% chance that he gets lit up in the next 2 weeks. If you keep him active I would also be sure to have a fresh bottle of Jack on hand to drown your sorrows the next night or perhaps even next morning for those inclined to imbibe.
Homer Bailey has nudged his way back into the Reds rotation taking the place of Mike Leake. Bailey is an uber talent with a spotty track record. DD loves this type of post-hype type for deep mixed and NL only. It is amazing that he is only 24. DD remembers his big league debut and the fans were literally talking like this was “the guy” for the next decade. He still might be a stud, but it will take some time. Love love love him as a 2011 sleeper. Mark it down.
Most Dropped:
Francisco Rodriguez is now Gaylord Focker with goggles and a diminishing fastball. Drop him in redraft leagues as the 2010 party is over.
Chipper Jones might be done forever. He also might pull a Favre and suddenly change his mind. Drop him in all formats.
J.P. Arencibia has a bright future as he is a power hitting catcher, but for now he is back on the bus in the minors. Put him on the sleeper list for 2011.
Josh Willingham really does have 30 HR and 100 RBI written all over him, but once again this will not be the year. Surgery on his left knee will end his season.
Whether you love me or hate me I am usually right. Follow me on Twitter @DDGeek and keep the emails coming: doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
Waiver Wire Relievers
August 17th, 2010
DraftGuru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
With only 6 full weeks left in the MLB regular season and even less for most fantasy leagues, it’s important to get the most “bang for your buck” from your relief pitchers the last few weeks before the playoffs begin. Grabbing even a handful of extra K’s, Saves or Holds over the next few weeks could pay huge dividends. Here are a few pitchers who have faired well recently and are certainly worth a look for any fantasy team over the final few weeks:
Joaquin Benoit - Icon SMI
Joaquin Benoit: Benoit has been the Rays’ best reliever this season, even better than closer Rafael Soriano and his 1.74 ERA and 34 saves. Benoit is currently sporting a 1.24 ERA, an outstanding 0.62 WHIP with a 12.37 K/9 rate and 1.44 BB/9 rate over 43 2/3 innings. Over his last 14 appearances, Benoit has 12 Holds, and has given up only 9 hits and 3 runs over 14 1/3 innings with 18 K’s and only 1 walk. Benoit is an excellent grab for any league that rewards Holds and is definitely worth grabbing for any team looking for an extra push in the K’s, WHIP and ERA categories. Available in 88% of Yahoo! Leagues and 97% of ESPN Leagues, Benoit is the epitome of ‘under the radar’.
Hisanori Takahaski: After the K-Rod debacle, it appears Takahashi will get a chance to handle closing duties for the Mets for the remainder of the season. This alone makes him a must have in almost all leagues that count saves. Takahashi has been invaluable for the Mets, serving at times as a starter and a reliever. He’s been at his best as a reliever, holding opponents to a 0.206 average against (almost 100 points lower than as a starter) with an opponents OPS of 0.594 (vs. 0.821 as a starter). As a reliever, Takahashi’s K/AB rate jumps from 21.5% to 30.8%. As of Tuesday morning, Takahashi was available in 88% of Yahoo! Leagues and 94% of ESPN Leagues.
Ryan Madson: Despite missing time after breaking his toe kicking a chair, Madson has been outstanding since returning from the DL. Over 18 2/3 innings, Madson has allowed only 13 hits and 4 earned runs (1.92 ERA) while striking out 27 and walking only 3 batters. Madson has managed to grab 5 Holds and 1 win over his last 10 appearances while setting up Brad Lidge. With the Phillies fighting for the playoffs, Madson is sure to get plenty of work down the stretch, increasing his overall potential for fantasy owners. As of Tuesday morning, Madson was available in 79% of Yahoo! Leagues and 94% of ESPN Leagues.
As always, feel free to send me any questions/comments via email: draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com or hit up the message board below.
Flip That Two Start Pitcher – Week 20
August 15th, 2010
DoubleDown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
The rules are simple: Find SP’s with two starts in the upcoming scoring period that are generally available in 50% or more in mixed leagues. For the purposes of this experiment we will be using the percentages supplied on www.cbssports.com. Our goal is to maximize value for the coming week and then dump him for next week’s choice. An ideal performance under these circumstances would be 1 Win, 10 K’s, and an ERA of 4.25 or better. Flips can be a risky proposition and should only be completed with the assistance of Double Down or under close supervision of another Fantasy Baseball Geek.
This week Chris Volstad (Owned 19%) is the soup of the day. Volstad has the potential to be very good if he gets ahead in the count and limits the free passes. Start #1 will be at Pittsburgh against James McDonald on 8/16. DD likes pretty much any starter that goes against the Pirates. Start #2 will be at home against Wandy Rodriguez and the Astros on 8/21. The Astros are a young rebuilding unit that the Fish really should handle. All of the evidence presented to you should tell you to expand the population and to Flip That Two-Start Pitcher.
Whether you love me or hate me I am usually right. Follow me on Twitter @DDGeek and keep the emails coming: doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
Fantasy Baseball Headlines – Rotoworld.com
- Report: Pedroia (foot) to undergo surgery - Dustin Pedroia (2B) Boston Red Sox September 2, 2010
- A-Rod (calf) fields groundballs Thursday - Alex Rodriguez (3B) New York Yankees September 2, 2010
- Braves move Kris Medlen to 60-day DL - Kris Medlen (R) Atlanta Braves September 2, 2010
- Suzuki not in Wednesday's lineup - Kurt Suzuki (C) Oakland Athletics September 2, 2010
- Barton not in Thursday's lineup - Daric Barton (1B) Oakland Athletics September 2, 2010
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