The Hot Corner
July 2nd, 2009
draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
It’s been two weeks since we last checked in on the third base position. Time to see how’s hot, how’s not and how the rankings have changed.
Scott Rolen - Icon SMI
(Stats based on last 2 weeks)
5-4-3 Double Play (players who are hot and making a nice impact)
Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox…After starting his big league career 0 for 13 and 2 for his first 28, Beckham is starting to live up to the hype. Over his last 41 AB, he is hitting 0.415 with 10 runs, 2 HR, 10 RBI, with an OPS of 1.099. He’s regarded as a line drive hitter with slightly better than average power, making him a decent option for fantasy owners looking for a 3B with some pop. The biggest knock on him heading into the draft was whether he had the size (6 feet, 185 lbs) to be a big league shortstop for an extended period of time. The debate seems to be over, as he’s spent all 23 games of his career thus far at 3B. Before his call-up, he was hitting a combined 0.326 with 4 HR, 25 RBI and 29 runs in 45 games between AA and AAA. As a 22 year old, he’s making an impact early and there’s no reason to think he won’t be a solid contributor for the remainder of the season - or the rest of his career for that matter.
Scott Rolen, Toronto Blue Jays…After fighting through injuries in 3 of the past 4 years, Rolen finally seems to be healthy and has really turned it on the past few weeks. Over his last 49 AB, he’s hitting 0.367 with 2 HR an 8 RBI. He’s not a great option, seeing how he’s had more than 410 AB just one time over the last 4 seasons, but he’s hitting 0.333 on the year and on pace to score 87 runs. His power is all but gone, but there are far worse options at the position.
In Search of the 5 Tool Superstar
June 30th, 2009
sonofzim@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
The term “5 Tool Player” gets tossed around a lot by scouts and many other baseball wizards, but how many guys really contribute across the board….hit for average, hit for power, steal bases, field and throw. Now of course the last two tools tend to not mean much to fantasy players, but a player’s ability to field his position well does have a lot to do with them staying in the lineup during slumps and not being pulled for a defensive replacement late in games. Ken Griffey Jr. was the best I ever saw of the 5 Tool prophecies…maybe Barry Bonds if you believe in his enhanced power. When you really knuckle down and look at the numbers, the Mystical 5 Tool Player with the capability of producing .300 25 HR 20 SB is harder to find than a healthy J.D. Drew season.
Hanley Ramirez - Icon SMI
There are players nowadays who bring you Henderson-like steal totals like Carl Crawford or Jacoby Ellsbury, but neither is likely to hit twenty homers in a season. Then there are the Carlos Pena/Adam Dunn prototypes good for enormous power but no speed or average. Ichiro does everything above average except lift line drives over the fence.
On pure talent, Jose Reyes is just short of the status but could inch closer as he matures and grows some pop (he has yet to eclipse the 20 homer mark in a season). As of now consider him a solid 4 out of 5. Once upon a time Derek Jeter was close, but now his range is becoming an issue as he ages and a position change could affect his plate performance in the seasons ahead. Even so, Jeter never hit 25 dingers in a season so he would be considered second tier on the 5 Tool Scale. Jimmy Rollins was right there from 2006-2007 with 25+ homeruns, 35+ steals and an average around .280 all while playing an above average shortstop. Now, Rollins is having trouble keeping his average above the Mendoza-line. So where does that leave us in 2009?
The Phat List: Top 250
June 30th, 2009
phattybo@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
Last month, I featured the debut of my list of the Top 250 players in MLB and dubbed it The Phat List. After another great month of baseball it’s time for an update and here it is. Along with the normal trending of players up and down, I made a few “adjustments” in this edition. I noted in the last edition, when all was said and done, some players were valued to high (Derek Jeter, Aubrey Huff, Johnny Peralta) or too low (Josh Johnson, Josh Beckett) and I moved them closer to where they really should be.
Justin Morneau - Icon SMI
It’s a work in progress like any list as it constantly changes and morphs into the final list it will become. There have also been a mess of injuries lately making me move many guys around along with having to make some hard roster moves on my teams. Making this list has really helped me as an analyst get a clear picture of so many more players across the league. Even if you have 10 fantasy baseball teams, you are not going to get a good idea how every player in the league is going. Make a Top 250 list and you sure will. To make this list, I spend a couple days to a week looking up each of the top 300 players moving them up and down the list until a rough list congeals. I look at all the stats on the season and then I sort by last 30 days, last 15 days, and sometimes last 7 for each player. I look for any trends positive or negative, using key statistics such as BABIP, CT%, BB%, OPS, as well as the traditional 5×5 statistics, also taking into account projected stats. Then, after I’ve got a working list I go through it again, looking up every player to make sure the rankings make sense and that I didn’t miss anyone. When all that work is done and I’m happy with my values, it goes out to you, the reader, to pick apart. I hope you find it useful in making your own player evaluations whether for your own teams or in determining the value of a trade you are considering. It’s a big time for trades at this point in the fantasy season as the cream rises to the top and some teams give up the ghost. Be that guy who’s going out and getting the pieces that your team needs to succeed. Hopefully you can use this list in your efforts. What do you think of the list? Agree/Disagree/Questions/Comments…leave them at the bottom, be a part of the discussion. Thanks for reading.
Free Agent Trends – Week 13
June 26th, 2009
doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
Catcher
Most Added: Yadier Molina has had a nice month of June hitting .299 with 2 HR and 7 RBI. He even threw in a token SB for good measure. Molina is best left for NL only and deep mixed leagues as he might barely crack 10 HR with 50 to 60 RBI.
Derrek Lee - Icon SMI
Most Dropped: Jason Varitek has been bothered by a stiff neck and his owners have been bothered by his .231 batting average. Tek is still going to get you 20 HR, but that BA albatross is a tough cross for any smart owner to bear.
First Base
Most Added: Derrek Lee was written off by many as a player on the decline with a good BA and soft HR numbers. Lee is raking in June with a .358 AVG, 6 HR, and 18 RBI. There is definitely something left in the tank and the return of Aramis Ramirez in a couple of weeks will further help his cause. DD recommends Lee in all formats as he very well could hit 25 HR with 95 RBI and give you a close to a .300 BA.
Most Dropped: Chris Davis continues to strikeout at a shocking rate and has 103 K’s on the season. This would be great if he was a pitcher, but we all expected a lot more out of the Rangers slugger. Davis is still hitting for power and is on pace to hit 32 jacks. He had a 4 hit game on 6/25, but there have been rumblings that a change needs to be made. Perhaps a stint back at AAA would do him some good and get his confidence back. Justin Smoak is healthy once again and mashing the minors, so owners should monitor this situation closely as the summer progresses. Smoak is going to be a showstopper.
Second Base
Most Added: Casey McGehee has never been considered a top prospect, but the injury to Rickie Weeks has opened the door for him to prove scouts wrong. McGehee has made the most of his opportunity hitting .343 with 3 HR and 15 RBI over 96 at bats. He is a great pick up in NL only and deep mixed leagues have to take notice if he continues to hit.
From the Carving Table: Joe Morgan is Crazy, Late-night TV, and Busts
June 26th, 2009
theknife@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
Before we delve into the latest 2B rankings - and assorted odds and ends - please have a look at the following exchange from Tuesday’s ESPN’s chat with the Hall of Famer and future resident of Shady Oaks Assisted Living,
Joe Morgan - Icon SMI
Joe Morgan:
John (CA): What are your thoughts on Tommy Hanson so far?
Joe Morgan: I haven’t seen him, and I haven’t read a lot about him, but everything I hear about him on TV, he’s going to be a star. But I don’t use other peoples’ judgments on players, I like to see them. I don’t follow the lead of others in terms of rating players. I like to do it myself.
Seriously? You haven’t seen him? You haven’t read a lot about him? The guy might be rookie of the year in the NL. As my brother said, the unintentional comedy of this response is through the roof. I love that Joe Morgan’s current livelihood is based on his being a baseball ANALYST, and his expertise is based upon what he “hears on TV.” Goodness gracious. Not surprisingly, there is an entire blog (somehow not updated since 2007), which devotes its entire existence to dumb stuff Joe Morgan says. It’s aptly named “Joe Morgan Says…” (www.joemorgansaid.com), and it gave me this gem from 2007:
Rick (SD): Do you think there is often too much weight and kudos given to individual stat data accomplishments in what is supposed to be a team sport?
Joe Morgan: Finally somebody that understands the game. You’re right. Statistics are overrated. What you do to help your team win is what it’s all about. These stats like OPS, it doesn’t tell you what you do for the team. To my opinion, to help the team, you drive in runs or score runs. That helps the team. That’s how you should be judged.
Got it. True understanding of the game only occurs when you recognize that statistics are overrated and that Runs and RBI are the real measuring stick. I need a drink. Joe Morgan…he likes to do it himself.
Behind the Dish
June 22nd, 2009
partymonkey@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
Behind the Dish will feature an all around run-down of fantasy baseball news as it relates to catchers. Yard Work will feature players who are making waves around 2009 in MLB. From the Training Room as you know was my previous article’s topic and will have updated news on players headed to & returning from the D.L. Bob Evans MiLB will cover players at the C position that are making noise “Down on the Farm” in MiLB. Finally, my 2009 Party Monkey Top Bananas will feature my top 25 players at the C position ranked on their final 2009 stats.
Mike Napoli - Icon SMI
All statistics as of June 20th, 2009
Yard Work
Some catchers who are currently doing some landscaping.
Raking It
Miguel Olivo, Kansas City Royals…Olivo is hitting .280/6/12/1.008 in June so far. He has surpassed his HR total (4 in April & May) just in the month of June and has never hit more than 3 HR in the month of June in any season. Olivo’s highest number of HR in any season is 16 (2007 & 2006). While Olivo is raking now, history has shown that Olivo is a career .234 hitter in post-All Star games. Olivo is a silent producer who is a low end mixed league option.
Mike Napoli, Los Angeles Angels…Mike Napoli is a powerful hitter, make no mistake. His average on the other hand will go up and down like a Six Flags roller coaster (still in business for now). Napoli is a career .254/55/152/.856 hitter, with a great AB/HR ratio. Napoli is currently hitting .280/9/27/.864 in 2009. Although Napoli’s average will dwindle down to the area of .270, he should finish with 25+ HR at the end of 2009. Napoli has great power numbers but it seems the Angels continue to play games with fantasy owners. Mike Scioscia will continue to start Jeff Mathis and his .197 average instead of allowing Napoli to take over the C role for good. Napoli is well worth a C spot in mixed leagues.
The Hot Corner
June 21st, 2009
draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
Third base, as with all other infield positions, had distinctive tiers heading into the season. There was the elite (A-Rod, Wright, Longoria), the very good (Youkilis, Ramirez, Davis), then the rest (Atkins, Huff, Jones, etc). As the 2009 season has progressed, some players have exceeded expectations (Mark Reynolds, Ryan Zimmerman, Casey Blake, Mike Lowell, Hank Blalock) while others have been either slight disappointments (A-Rod, Wright) or victims of injuries (Aramis Ramirez, Alex Gordon). Every two weeks, I’ll revisit the third base position and check in on who’s hot/cold and how my projected rankings change based on performances and/or injuries.
Mark Reynolds - Icon SMI
(stats based on last 2 weeks)
5-4-3 Double Play (players who are hot and making a nice impact)
David Wright, New York Mets…Though his power is lacking, he is hitting 0.396 with 1 HR, 6 RBI and 5 steals over his last 48 AB. He’s been a pleasant surprise on the bases (18 steals vs. 15 all of last year), but the power has been lacking (4 HR all year). With a 0.350 average, 41 runs, 39 RBI and 18 steals, he’s still a top value at 3B, but the lack of HR is disappointing for owners who drafted in the 1st round, hoping for 30+ HR.
Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks…Given his overall impact this year (18 HR, 47 RBI, 44 runs, 13 steals and 0.271 average), he’s been arguably the most valuable 3B to this point. He’s still striking out too much (95 in 247 AB, on pace for over 200 for the second straight year), but his power is even better and if he can hit close to 0.250 for the season, most owners will be more than happy. In the past two weeks, he’s hit 5 HR with 14 RBI, 10 runs, 1 steal and 0.285 average.
Unsung Heroes
June 20th, 2009
sonofzim@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
Every year there are winning teams that have key players that were drafted late or undrafted all together that end up becoming integral pieces of a fantasy crown. Here are some players that have performed better than expected over the first few months of the season.
Shin-Soo Choo, OF Clevaland Indians…Many owners expected Choo to be a flash in the pan, but not the Zim. (check the record) Choo has a nice combination of speed and power with a good average and nice on base skills to boot. How many guys have an OPS over .850? Choo does. He is on pace for a quiet 100 RBI 100 R 30 SB season. Hmmm…sounds a lot like a Grady Sizemore stat line at a 1/3 of the cost.
Nelson Cruz - Icon SMI
Nelson Cruz, OF Texas Rangers…Cruz was starting to look like a perennial AAAA player, not good enough for the bigs and too good for AAA. Now he looks like a 40HR slugger with 25SB to go along with it. If there is one knock on Cruz it is that he is streaky, but when that wave rolls in you want to be on it. He also still struggles at times versus left-handed pitching (.721 OPS) but his obliteration of righties (.985) makes that point moot. Cruz is establishing himself as a top offensive talent and still many don’t even realize it.
Ben Zobrist, 2B/SS/OF Tampa Bay Rays…Maybe he is a late bloomer because Zobrist never showed this much ability in his minor league career. In a season where Rollins, Reyes and many other shortstops have been a disappointment, Zobrist has shined for the Rays. Granted he is probably due for a stat correction somewhere down the pipe, but he hasn’t cooled off yet clubbing at a .300 average with an OPS over 1.000. Yes, that high! With Iwamura out for the year, he might be working his way into being the starting second baseman for 2010.
Free Agent Trends – Week 12
June 19th, 2009
doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
Catcher
Most Added: Miguel Olivo has been putting on a home run hitting display recently delivering 9 jacks on the season. This puts him on pace for a career high 22 homers surpassing his previous best of 16. Olivo is a nice option in AL only and in very deep mixed leagues you might want to run him out there while he is streaking.
Pablo Sandoval - Icon SMI
Most Dropped: John Baker has cooled off to the point where he is losing some at bats to the always threatening Ronny Paulino. Baker’s batting average has dropped to .243 for the season and he has only 5 hits in his last 30 AB’s. He can be dropped in mixed leagues and is a low end option for NL only owners who are confident in a rebound.
First Base
Most Added: Pablo Sandoval was a popular topic of many of the emails I received in April/May after he had a slow start in the power department. Interestingly enough he has hit 5 jacks in the month of June alone and the emails with the subject field of “Drop Sandoval?” seem to have dried up. The guy swings at everything, but he has shown the ability to hit over .300 at multiple levels despite this fact. His style resembles the reckless Vlad Guerrero approach at the dish where pitches out of the strike zone are almost preferred targets. DD suspects his HR ceiling to be around 25, but anytime you can get a player on pace for 550+ at bats that is able to hit over .300 you want him active.
Most Dropped: Nick Johnson has slowed things down month by month hitting .338 in April, .327 in May, and .222 so far in June. He is batting .306 with 5 HR and 32 RBI on the season, so if the BA drops under .300 much of his value dissipates. DD hopes you sold high when I advised doing so in the Week 8 edition of this article published on May 22nd.
Read more…
Outfield Rankings
June 18th, 2009
sonofzim@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
The most important statistics in my mind for an offensive player is Total Bases. TB’s indicate how much impact a player is having and showcases his ability to accumulate points or contribute to categories such as hits/runs/rbi etc.
Shin-Soo Choo - Icon SMI
The “Zim” likes his outfielders to give him production across the board and tries to avoid the Willy Tavares types and opt for the Shane Victorino’s instead. This month some of the regular Top 10 found themselves on injury hiatus leaving us with some new names at the top and a new leader of the pack. The clear #1 OF in my mind these days is Ryan Braun who is pacing for a 30/100 season with an OPS above 1.000 points. He is healthy and now that Fielder is picking it up behind him the sky is the limit. Nelson Cruz has cracked my Top 5 with a rare combination of speed and power and looks like a star. It will be interesting to see how long he hangs in the Top 10. He might be this year’s Quentin. Adam Jones has slipped out of the Top 5 and Curtis Granderson back into the Top 10 as his latest hot streak has rewarded patient owners.
Josh Hamilton and Grady Sizemore are still on the shelf but Josh seems like he is finally on track. Manny Ramirez will be back providing fireworks in LA for July 4th and Carlos Quentin continues to plummet with rumblings of him missing the entire year. Raul Ibanez drops down as well with his latest DL stint. All good things…
Shin-Soo Choo, Alex Rios and Adam Lind continue to prove their worth and Nick Swisher continues to work his way off the list entirely, especially with an imminent return of Xavier Nady. Gary Sheffield by far the most surprising Top 50 player I can think of, but the old man still has some life left in those quick wrists. Andrew McCutchen has skyrocketed into the Top 40 with his five tools and we officially welcome to the list Carlos Gonzalez! He was my minor leaguer sleeper at the beginning of the year and he has arrived sooner than expected. Now it’s time to start translating all those minor league stats to “The Show”.
Let us settle all your
Trade Debates
Fantasy Baseball Headlines - Rotoworld.com
- Richar leaves game with injury - Danny Richar (3B) Cincinnati Reds July 2, 2009
- Johnson to begin rehab stint Friday - Reed Johnson (OF) Chicago Cubs July 2, 2009
- Ibanez won't return to lineup this weekend - Raul Ibanez (OF) Philadelphia Phillies July 2, 2009
- Report: Marlins sign Ayala - Luis Ayala (R) Minnesota Twins July 2, 2009
- Soriano to sit again Thursday - Alfonso Soriano (OF) Chicago Cubs July 2, 2009
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