Commish
Futures Report
Finally, we have had a few days full of games. No more
game, no game, game, no game schedules. The major league baseball season
is finally in full swing. Also, getting in gear is a full slate of full
season minor league action. So as always, we will start things off by
tracking this year's Six Pack of Aces and give you a run down on some of the
other action down on the farm.
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Icon SMI (Rick Porcello)
Six Pack of Aces
Team |
Age |
W |
L |
IP |
ERA |
WHIP |
K/9 |
K/BB |
BB/9 |
||
1 |
Clayton Kershaw |
LAD (AA) |
20 |
- |
2 |
8.0 |
3.375 |
1.625 |
13.50 |
3.00 |
4.50 |
2 |
Nick Adenhart |
LAA (AAA) |
21 |
2 |
- |
11.0 |
0.818 |
1.091 |
6.55 |
1.60 |
4.09 |
3 |
Rick Porcello |
Det (Hi A) |
19 |
1 |
1 |
10.0 |
0.000 |
0.700 |
6.30 |
3.50 |
1.80 |
4 |
David Price |
TB (Hi A) |
22 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
5 |
Wade Davis |
TB (AA) |
22 |
2 |
- |
11.0 |
4.091 |
1.273 |
5.73 |
2.33 |
2.45 |
6 |
Fautino de los Santos |
Oak (Hi A) |
22 |
- |
2 |
11.0 |
4.091 |
1.182 |
10.64 |
4.33 |
2.45 |
The first full week of minor league games is in the books and each of our Aces has 2 starts in the bag. Everyone's favorite pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw is off to a mixed start. The good news; in his 2 starts he is running up the strikeouts to a tune of 13.50 K/9. Bad news; he is not showing the overall dominance that he should this spring as he has a BB/9 of 4.50. Kershaw could be called up at anytime, but I think the Dodgers err on the side of caution with their 20 year-old future Ace. Esteban Loaiza will probably continue to fill in until Jason Schmidt is ready which is probably still a month away. I do think that Kershaw will be up before the All Star break, but probably not until June. Be patient, you are holding a future Top 3 starting pitcher on your bench/minors... Nick Adenhart is building upon his strong spring performance with 2 W's out of the box for Salt Lake. The only concern for Adenhart through 2 starts, as with Kershaw, is his high BB total: 4.09 BB/9. Adenhart also got off to a quick start last season so the true measure this year will be whether or not he can maintain the strong spring. Watch K-Rod's status. At this point it looks like the Angels closer will avoid the DL, but if he does end up there, Dustin Moseley, the current #5 starter, could be forced to the bullpen to be replaced in the rotation by Adenhart. Adenhart probably needs a handful of starts in the minors before he can contribute at the major league level, but with a solid offense behind him, he becomes a nice option for the end of your rotation in 2008. Buy immediately upon his recall in all leagues over the kiddy limit of 10 teams... Rick Porcello is off to the best start of our Aces. Considering the company and the fact that these are his first two professional starts, this is very impressive. He has yet to give up an earned run in 10 IP. If you had to nitpick and find something, I guess you could point out that he did lose 1 game and is not K'ing too many at this point; 6.30 K/9. Rumors are that he is on the fast track to Motown, but odds are he will spend the entire season down on the farm. He is a must own in any long term keeper leagues as he is a future #2 fantasy starter with #1 ceiling...There won't be much to report on David Price for the first month plus. The left arm strain that he suffered in Spring Training will keep him on the shelf until late May. Again be patient... Wade Davis & Fautino de los Santos can be lumped together because the numbers through their first two starts are eerily similar. de los Santos' peripherals are actually better than Davis, yet Davis is 2-0 and FDLS is 0-2. Just goes to show how dependant upon their team a pitchers' success can be. Both Oakland & TB should hold these two in the minors for all of 2008, so they will be watched closely each and every week in the Futures Report.
Insider Information
This week's Insider Information is going to focus on the early starts of five future fantasy stars that were thought to have a chance to be playing on an MLB Opening Day roster only to be returned to the minors for one reason or another.
Jay Bruce - (.333/.353/.515 - 5R/5RBI/1HR/2SB) Last year's Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year has not so shockingly picked up right where he left off in 2007. Unfortunately it is in the same location as last year also. A numbers game and a youth-prejudiced manager have forced Bruce back to Louisville even though he has nothing left to prove there. He was probably a mid round pick in many leagues this year, especially those that drafted early in March, so you have to hold onto him in a keeper league. If you play in a redraft league it is safe to drop Bruce. The only way he makes the majors at this point is if/when Adam Dunn or Ken Griffey makes a trip to the DL, and unless your roster has a long bench he is just clogging up a roster spot.
Chase Headley - (.217/.280/.261 - 2/2/0/0) As with all these numbers, you need to remember that we are only a week into the season. Do not get overly giddy or upset with what you see. Headley could probably be placed in the San Diego lineup tomorrow and be one of their top 3 or 4 hitters. Unfortunately for him, he plays the same position (3B) as one of their other top hitters and was unable to be a quick study in LF in the spring. Based on need, Headley could be the first of these prospects to be called up this season. His ceiling isn't as high as most of the others, but Headley, last year's Off the Radar member, is going to be a very good major league player sooner than later.
Evan Longoria - (.200/.333/.200 - 2/1/0/0) The Tampa Bay Tight Wads decided their franchise was better served with Longoria having an extra year of controllability than to put the best product on the field today. Who cares what the fans want, right. There are legitimate baseball reasons for everyone else on this list to be in the minors. Longoria's situation is purely business related, and his slow start to the season is easily justified. Don't read anything into it, and wait patiently for the baseball business calendar to allow Longoria into the majors.
Cameron Maybin - (.391/.533/.739 - 4/4/2/3) The company line and general opinion regarding Maybin was that he was not ready for a major league gig. So what does Maybin do, he goes out in the first week and absolutely annihilates AA pitching. He is currently showcasing the complete package; power, speed, hitting, patience (7 BB). He could get a call to AAA soon to further his career path to the majors. I am definitely in the minority on Maybin, but I think he should be in the majors now and learning on the job. At worst you get an everyday player that helps with SB only. You would have a serviceable #4 OF from day one, who will be streaky but there will be some good streaks in there also.
Colby Rasmus - (.258/.314/.387 - 5/2/1/1) Like Bruce, it is a numbers game of which Rasmus found himself on the short end. However, while Bruce has legitimate talent blocking him in Cincy; Rasmus has Skip Schumaker & Ryan Ludwick blocking him in St. Louis. There were also rumors that Rasmus did something to land on Tony LaRussa's doghouse. Whether that is true or not, the Cards should install Rasmus in CF tomorrow, move Ankiel to RF and instantly upgrade the team's offense & defense. It may be a month or so before Rasmus makes his major league debut, but he needs to be watched closely and again be ready to pounce.
As most know by this time, Braves top prospect Jordan Schafer has been suspended for 50 games for using HGH. The fantasy ramifications all depend on what type of league you play in. If you play with a very deep minor league roster then hold on to Schafer; if you have a limited minor league roster/bench and you can replace Schafer with another prospect I recommend doing so now. If he comes back after the suspension and plays up to his previous levels then great, he proved that he is a legitimate prospect. But this positive test throws another question mark into the equation, and since prospects are highly volatile to begin with, his roster spot would be better used elsewhere. May I recommend fellow Brave prospect Jason Heyward who is currently playing in the Sally League and is most likely not due in the majors until late 2009 at the earliest.
As always thank you to Baseball America and www.milb.com for their scouting reports and statistics that allow me to put a fantasy spin on their information. If you have any questions about any of tomorrow's fantasy stars send me an email at commish@fantasybaseballgeeks.com . Otherwise, talk to you again next week.