Commish

Futures Report

commish@fantasybaseballgeeks.com   - 7/11/2008

The big news in the prospect community was the trade of Matt LaPorta to the Indians as part of the CC Sabathia deal.   This week I will get into LaPorta's future as well as an "Off the Radar" pitcher who was also positively impacted by the trade.

Fantasy Franchise Foundations :

#1 fantasy hitting prospect Cameron Maybin was placed on the 7-day DL effective 07/03 due to a back injury.   He should be back soon, but anyone still holding out hope for a 2008 fantasy impact can probably forget about it...Since his promotion to AA Bowie, Matt Wieters has picked up where he left off in Class A Frederick.   His BA/OBP/SLG/OPS numbers are in line or slightly exceeding his numbers with the Keys.   Wieters is an absolute monster at the plate, and throw in position scarcity as a catcher and Wieters is going to be a very expensive fantasy commodity in the very near future...As everyone reading this knows, Matt LaPorta was the centerpiece of the CC Sabathia trade.   This is great news for LaPorta owners as he goes from an organization that had roadblocks at every corner position to one that has no roadblocks at any corner.   Unfortunately, the fantasy payoff won't be immediate as LaPorta will remain in AA moving from Huntsville to Akron.   No one seems to have a read on the Indians' plans for LaPorta but I would guess that he is up sometime in August playing every day for the Tribe; most likely in LF... Jason Heyward has continued his torrid hitting with a .391 batting average in July.   However, the power continues to escape him with only 1 HR since the end of May.   The good news is, he has stolen 6 bases during that time and continues to project as a future fantasy asset you need to own in dynasty leagues...While June was a kind month to Travis Snider, July is off to a slower start for this NH Fisher Cat.   He continues to rack up the strikeouts with almost a strikeout every 3 ABs.   The 17 HRs are impressive, but in order to be considered the Jay Bruce of 2009, the K Rate will need to decrease.   Because of his 65.88% Contact Rate in the minors, I think the rumors of Snider being promoted to Toronto to replace the injured Vernon Wells are a little far fetched. A 20 year-old free swinger at AA is one thing but moving him up to the majors is a mistake waiting to happen.   But then you look at what they did to Adam Lind and anything is possible...In just 133 major league ABs Carlos Gonzalez already has 14 doubles, good for 7 th among MLB rookies.   While that is a good sign, nothing else jumps put at you about Gonzalez through his first 36 games.   While his long term talents are very exciting, his 2008 is not going to be very useful.   If you are in an AL only, he is probably starting for you; however mixed leaguers can pass until 2009.   The addition of Matt Murton in the Rich Harden deal further muddies the OF/DH position for the A's.

Six Pack of Aces :

Off the Radar :

David Huff - SP, Cleveland Indians:   Everyone knows about Adam Miller (DL again), Jeremy Sowers (0-5 and getting pounded in Cleveland) and Aaron Laffey (a legitimate piece of the Tribe's future rotation) but one name you seldom here mentioned is David Huff.   Huff is a 6'2' lefty who was drafted 39 th overall in the 2006 draft.   He started the 2008 season in AA Akron and shredded his opponents with a 1.92 ERA & 0.883 WHIP in 11 games (10 starts).   He was then moved to AAA Buffalo and while the ERA & WHIP have increased (3.79/1.00) his K & BB rates are impressive (10.18 K/9, 0.95 BB/9)   Overall he has posted 105 Ks and only 18 BB in 103.2 IP.   The Sabathia trade clearly signals that Cleveland is in rebuilding mode and with Sowers pitching his way out of Cleveland, Huff could be a possible post-All Star break call up for the Indians.   He relies on 4 solid pitches, command and pitching guile and not power, but Huff could become a mid-rotation guy and a mixed league option in the future.   He is worth a flier in AL only keeper leagues now for those who like to be ahead of the curve.

Welcome to the Show :

Matt Harrison - SP, Texas Rangers:   You know my credo:   Avoid Rangers starting pitchers at all costs.   So you know what I am going to do.   However, Harrison had a nice W in his MLB debut (7 IP/5 H/2 ER/1 BB/1 K) so some people will jump on him.   He is not a strikeout pitcher (55 in 84 minor league innings) and he is in Texas:   let someone else in your league take the chance.

Reid Brignac - SS, Tampa Bay Rays:   Probably the top middle infield prospect who is close to MLB playing time for fantasy purposes.   Brignac had a huge 2006 (24 HR/99 RBI) but has tailed off in 2007 & 2008.   He got the call to TB when Jason Bartlett was sent to the DL, but Ben Zobrist has received the majority of the playing time in place of Bartlett.   Brignac still has a future as a Top 15 2B/SS (whichever position he settles at) but he is not an elite prospect and now is not going to be his chance to prove he belongs in the majors.

Icon SMI

Chris Volstad - SP, Florida Marlins:     You would think that the 6'7" Volstad would be piling up the strikeouts in the minors, but in 2008 Volstad only had 56 in 91 IP (along with 30 BB).   He picked up a relief win in his MLB debut and is moving to the rotation to start against LA on Friday.   He is worth starting in NL-only leagues but mixed leaguers can probably snatch him and bench him until he shows something in 2008.   He could be a #5 starter in mixed leagues, but unless he shows that he can start getting Ks at a better rate, Volstad's fantasy value will be limited.

Jamie Garcia - SP, St Louis Cardinals:   While I avoid Rangers pitchers whenever possible, the opposite holds true with St Louis.   You always need to look closely when a pitcher gets to St. Louis.   Pitching coach Dave Duncan is more known for his work with reclamation projects (Jeff Weaver, Braden Looper, Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Pineiro....) but when a pitcher with the potential of Garcia arrives you may want to take a shot that Duncan can bring out his best.   Garcia replaces the re-injured Mark Mulder but will not immediately move into the rotation.   Look for Garcia to get some starts after the All Star break and is worth a claim in an NL only league.   If he gets the starts, Volstad and Garcia would be a coin flip, I would take a shot with Garcia first, and definitely both before Harrison.

Insider Information :

Former Dodger top prospect Scott Elbert has returned from shoulder surgery and has been building arm strength by primarily working out of the bullpen.   He did make his first start in his last appearance but was only able to pitch 3.2 innings.   He does have 19 Ks in 22 IP but has 10 BB to go along with them.   Many might have forgotten this once top prospect, but while 2008 is a rehab year, he is still a possible future Dodgers starter and should be watched in 2009...Another returning starting pitching prospect to watch is Milwaukee starter Jeremy Jeffress .   While his return is from a drug suspension and not an injury, Jeffress is still someone you don't want to dismiss.   Pitching for Hi-A Brevard County, Jeffress has 75 Ks in 52 2/3 IP.   He does sport a high 4.78 ERA but his .229 OAV and 1.25 WHIP are impressive... Jose Tabata on the other hand is starting to wear out his welcome as a top fantasy prospect.   Currently on the DL with hamstring issues, Tabata is quickly gaining a reputation for lacking effort and being uncoachable.   His numbers are bad too.   For AA Trenton he is hitting .248 with only 3 HR and a .320 OBP.   He does have 10 SB and doesn't turn 20 for another month but at some point you need to start seeing some improvement.   In dynasty leagues use the Yankee prospect thing to your advantage to see if you can deal him for a better performing prospect...A name you may be seeing a lot of in trade rumors involving the Phillies is that of Lou Marson.   Currently in AA, Marson may be the #3 fantasy catcher prospect (who will remain at C) remaining in the minors; behind Wieters and Taylor Teagarden.   For fantasy purposes he projects as more of an AJ Pierzynski type hitter with the potential to hit in the .280 - .290 range and hit up to 20 HRs in a hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park...

As always, thank you to Baseball America and www.milb.com for their scouting reports and statistics that allow me to put a fantasy spin on their information.   If you have any questions about any of tomorrow's fantasy stars send me an email at commish@fantasybaseballgeeks.com .   Otherwise, talk to you again next week.

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