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Double Down
Free Agent Trends - Week 3
Most Added - Jason Kendall is grooving like it was 1999 when he posted a .332 BA in 280 AB's. He could still sneak 10 steals for you, but Kendall should only be used on NL only rosters or leagues requiring two backstops. The .400+ average will soon look a lot like .280 if your lucky. A much more intriguing option has to be hitting machine Ryan Doumit . Pirates manager John Russell has claimed that Doumit and Ronny Paulino would form a tandem, which is moron speak for a platoon. Doumit is doing everything he can to break apart the tandem and force Paulino to the pine; full time. He has the ability to have value in deep mixed leagues and should be a great fit for NL only. This is a terrific cheap power source if he can get enough at bats.
Most Dropped - Chris Snyder is really sucking wind in Arizona as he has just 2 hits in 21 AB's so far. He is still a solid NL only contributor that will right the ship and produce decent returns - double-digit homers.
Most Added - Ben Broussard has all of the tools and opportunity in Texas to become a real hidden gem. If he can get 500 at bats then you have yourself 25 HR and close to 100 RBI. This is the type of "sleeper" that can really help a squad in the market for a CI. Aubrey Huff has burned me several times over the years. You watch him hit and you see a player that punishes the ball when he connects - brute force comes to mind. After having a solid 2003 in Tampa, elite status looked to be on its way. Then came the annual first half slumps that have plagued Huff and owners across the globe. Now it is 2008 and Huff is no longer thought of as a potential breakout star, but that might be a bit premature. Hitting over .300 with a couple homers this early makes him very capable of returning to the glory days of 30 HR and 100 RBI. I love the value and availability so much that Huff receives this weeks DOUBLE DOWN.
Most Dropped - Adam LaRoche must have stolen the vitamins that Huff used to take as he is developing into an annual early season nightmare. Last season he hit .133 in the month of April and continued to disappoint during the rest of the first half. He then ignited later in the year to post a BA of .312 after the All-Star break. He currently is hitting a paltry .105. Even more startling is the fact that he is 0-9 with runners in scoring position. He can play and should be a target for you in an early season buy low trade.
Most Added - The story at second base continues to be Jose Lopez. Lopez is still smoking hot batting over .300 with 2 HR and 9 RBI. He has also rubbed my SB comments from last week in my face as he now has 2, which puts him on pace to have 30+. He is the current #2 producer for 5X5 at 2B behind only Chase Utley. You should stash him on your bench at the very least if he is still on the wire.
Most Dropped - Ty Wiggington is scuffling with a fractured thumb that has landed him on the DL. Wiggy is one of the most versatile players in fantasy as he could qualify at 2B, 3B, 1B, and OF depending on your leagues rules. He should really only have been on your bench as an insurance policy. Hopefully you did not invest too much in him.
Most Added - Jeff Keppinger has come out of the box blazing with 2 HR, 8 RBI, and a .340 BA to start the season. Once Alex Gonzalez (couple of weeks away) returns he will lose at bats, which will hurt his already minimal value. He has never been much of a power or speed guy, so I am at a loss for words as to why he is such a hot commodity. Go ahead and use him in deep mixed leagues and NL only while he is playing, but keep your expectations in check because he is nothing special for those looking for a full season of quality fantasy stats.
Most Dropped - Julio Lugo is certainly a spark plug capable of 10+ HR and 30+ SB's, but his start to this season has been nothing short of ugly. The glove has been getting negative press and the bat is following suit with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 SB, and a .256 BA. This is a player I would target from a disgruntled owner if this continues over the next few weeks for deeper leagues.
Most Added - Mark Reynolds is raking early and often; belting a league leading 5 HR's and 15 RBI. He should be able to hold off Chad Tracy upon his return, but beware of the inevitable streaks. Reynolds is very strikeout prone and started his first month last season in similar fashion poking 4 HR with a .426 BA. He then hit .162 in June and .194 in July. He is a very solid pick up for power numbers and should mash 30 with good RBI numbers, but expect the BA to be in the .280 range. Should be owned in all formats.
Most Dropped - Mike Lowell is on the DL until at least the end of April with a sprained thumb. He played extremely well in 2007 earning him a juicy contract and improved draft position in most fantasy leagues. Classic situation of paying for last years stats as even without the thumb he was likely to see a drop-off in BA and RBI. Stash him on the DL and pick up Reynolds or Evan Longoria .
Most Added - Corey Patterson could barely find a job this off-season after posting a solid 2007 with the Orioles. He has good pop and great speed, but will suck the life out of your average. Corey is loaded with talent, but always seems to slump for extended periods frustrating the heck out of owners. He is a great 4 th or 5 th OF in all formats. Justin Upton is here to stay and is going to be making noise throughout baseball for the next 15 years. I think he goes 20/20 this season and will press 30/30 in 2009. He was drafted #1 overall for a reason. Both Upton's will be first round fantasy picks within 3 years time. Bill Hall was a massive disappointment last season for fantasy owners expecting a repeat of his 35 jacks in 2006; as general managers were treated to a pedestrian 14 in 2007. After his value was inflated heading into the 2007 draft he was most definitely undervalued moving into 2008. On pace for 73 HR is quite amusing, but expect Hall to finish somewhere between the peak in 2006 and the trough in 2007. He is a worthy 4 th or 5 th OF.
Most Dropped - Michael Cuddyer has seen his ownership plummet due to his current DL stint. He hopes to be back by months end, so stash him, as he is a reasonable 5 th OF candidate. The Indians promising OF, Franklin Gutierrez parlayed a huge opening day stat line into a massive 2 week slump. He will recover and should be a nice pick up if an owner decides to panic. Plenty of upside and a nice AL only option.
All comments on SP's and RP's must be 10 words or less.
Most Added:
Jennie Finch - No hitter, wrong sport, I want her on my team
Dana
Eveland - Nice start, Nice K's, AL only #5
Edwin Jackson - Lots
of Talent, Bad track record, Deep AL only
Todd Wellemeyer - Surprising
K's, Only if match-up is right
Micah Owings - Solid Athlete,
Average Pitcher, Deep NL only
Ryan Dempster - More risk of implosion than any rewards - Stay
away
Most Dropped:
Matt Garza - #2 stuff, Scary Injury, Stash him and pray
Rich
Harden - Cy Young stuff, Typical disappointment, Still
Stash him
Barry Zito - Huge regression, Decreasing velocity, Fantasy
liability
Most Added:
Peter Moylan - Australian retread, Right Place, Right Time,
Get him
Brad Lidge - Great K's, New Town, Can be Top 10 Closer
George
Sherrill - 4 Saves, 4 Opportunities, Why not?
Most Dropped:
Rafael Soriano - Elbow tendonitis, Red Flag, Check his history
Chad
Cordero - Not prototypical Closer stuff, Rauch lurking,
trade bait
Tom Gordon - Stash him just in case Lidge's Pujols phobia
returns
The rules are simple: Find SP's with two starts in the upcoming scoring period that are generally available in 50% or more leagues. Our goal is to maximize value for the coming week and then dump him for next week's choice. Flips can be a risky proposition and should only be completed with the assistance of Double Down or under close supervision of another Fantasy Baseball Geek.
We are going out on a limb once again as we head into Week 3 by selecting Jarrod Washburn . Washburn has been a mediocre pitcher peaking with 18 wins in 2002 while playing for the Angels. He will only get you around 100 K's a season and will lurk around the low 4's in the ERA department. The match-ups look favorable this week and Wash has started the season nicely posting a 1-1 record with a 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHP, and 6 K's. On April 14 th he is facing Zack Greinke and the Kansas City Royals. Last season Washburn tooled on the Royals vehemently going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA. Greinke faced the Mariners twice in '08 in relief posting a ghastly ERA of 8.10. Appetizing data so far. On April 19 th he will be matched up against the Angels and Ervin Santana in LA. In 2007 Washburn went 1-1 in his two starts against the Angels, but the win occurred in LA as he went 7 innings and gave up 5 hits, no walks, and no runs. This is a classic pump and dump scenario as Washburn should probably land back on the wire until another 2-start opportunity presents itself in the months ahead. All of the evidence presented to you should give you a great deal of confidence to pick up Wash and Flip That Two-Start Pitcher.
Please email me with questions, comments, or to talk smack at: doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
