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Free Agent Trends - Week 4
Most Added - Mike Napoli has become a staple in the most added catcher space. M-Nap (I am reaching) has already launched 4 jacks as we enter scoring period 4, which ties him with Brian McCann for the most at this position. He is a veritable lock for 20 HR and has to be considered in all deep mixed leagues and could almost be labeled a stud for AL only.
Most Dropped - Paul Lo Duca has been a whipping boy of DD since last season. He really has little value even when healthy. The Duke should not be on any roster even when he returns from the DL. Lo Duca was the last catcher selected (amazingly enough by me) in our 12 team Geek mixed league that requires you to start two catchers - this means we all felt there were 23 better backstops available. Carlos Ruiz has been a real disappointment for owners as he is hitting just .195 with no home runs. He had better be careful as veteran minor league staple, Chris Coste, has hit 2 HR and has a .400 BA in his 20 at bats while spelling Ruiz.
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Most Added - Mike Jacobs should have been on your sleeper list on draft day as he is hitting his offensive prime. He will anger you by spraying in several 0-4's each week, but has the HR power to pork 30 jacks. That is a pretty aggressive projection, but at this point with 6 in the books he is on pace for many more than that. Jacobs is a valuable asset for NL only and has intrinsic value as a CI in mixed formats. Casey Kotchman continues to impress as he now has 4 homers on the young season with a .300+ BA. The power should continue to develop and could move him way up the fantasy ladder in the years ahead as he is still only 25. There is lot of upside, so he should be considered in all formats. Conor Jackson is actually a similar player to Kotchman. At age 25 scouts and owners alike are predicting that he will start to put on a more fierce power display. Jackson has already launched 3 this year and has an alluring 17 RBI. If pressed take Kotchman over Jackson by a hair for this year and in keeper leagues.
Most Dropped - Jason Giambi now has 13 games under his belt at 1B, so you now have the luxury of using him to kill your batting average at DH, CI, or 1B. The overpaid goof could easily get you 30 HR with close to 100 RBI, but the BA will haunt you. If Todd Helton is your 1B then Giambi would actually be a palatable compliment as your DH or CI. He will get you the homers that Helton lacks and when you combine the .320 average from the Colorado 1B that will allow you to swallow his .250 BA. That was just some food for thought on roster and BA management.
Most Added - After dealing with an irregular heartbeat in Spring Training Mark DeRosa is back and raking for the Cubs. He is currently delivering top 10 stats at his position when you cover all 5 categories. You can do better at 2B in most formats if we consider what he is going to deliver over a full season. DeRosa is a decent option as an MI, but look elsewhere in mixed leagues for your starting 2B.
Most Dropped - I have never had the pleasure of having Howie Kendrick on one of my rosters, but his constant nagging injuries are a major concern even for this disinterested observer. Being capable of winning a batting title is great, but getting enough at bats to qualify for one is another ball game. He is on the 15 day DL with a hamstring issue and you should use this as an opportunity to acquire him from a frustrated owner in a keeper league.
Most Added - Erick Aybar was most recently a member of the most dropped club; now finds himself in a nice situation all of a sudden with playing time and a hot bat. He is hitting over .300 and already has 3 SB's. Expect him to continue to push for more at bats at SS even when Kendrick returns to active duty at 2B. Monitor this situation closely as he is a nice MI fit if he continues to see plenty of action.
Most Dropped - Khalil Greene has not delivered thus far on what many think will be his breakout year. He is currently hitting a miserable .227 with no homers and only 6 RBI. This is another buy low candidate as Greene will be a valuable cog to produce in all formats by seasons end. Keep the faith
Most Added - Evan "Almighty" Longoria now officially has arrived in the big leagues and has a nice chunk of change to show for it as the Rays locked him up to a long-term deal. Before we anoint him as the best thing since sliced bread we have to consider several things that work against him. The reason that Ryan Braun is elite and Alex Gordon will be elite is the fact that they deliver SB's. Don't get me wrong Longoria is a stud hitter and will only get better, but what is his ceiling for fantasy purposes? I think we will eventually see him in the 35 HR and 110 RBI range in the next year or two, but without double digit steals that looks a lot more like a Ryan Zimmerman stat line than a Ryan Braun stat line. This is by no means making light of his tremendous ability, but I am simply stating that his fantasy value will be less than a 3B who bring all 5 tools. Even after my little venting session he could still get you 25 HR and 80 RBI this year, which means he should not be sitting on any waiver wire. It is that time - DOUBLE DOWN.
Most Dropped - Troy Glaus is struggling at the plate these days as he has no HR and an anemic .220 BA. The good news is that he seems to be healthy. This is a player that could be a buy low candidate for an owner willing to take a risk. He could still get you 30 jacks if he stays on the field.
Most Added - Ryan Ludwick is currently the outfielder being added most this week. Seems like an odd choice, but hey the guy is en fuego. Ludwick is on pace to hit 38 HR and have over 100 RBI. There is a greater chance of me winning an Olympic Gold Medal than that happening, so don't hold your breath. If he somehow hits 20 HR it should be considered a miracle for owners. He is nothing more than an average 5 th OF or reserve for mixed leagues. Carlos Quentin is a completely different story as he is getting at bats for the White Sox and has taken advantage by hammering 4 HR and driving in 15. He might not develop into a 30 HR threat, but he has much more upside and talent than the previously discussed Ludwick. Consider Quentin to be an above average 4 th or 5 th OF. Andre Ethier has been on the rise and should provide patient owners with decent returns this season. For keeper leagues Ethier should be moved up considerably as he has a high ceiling and should have a very solid MLB career.
Most Dropped - Shane Victorino is on the DL with a calf injury until at least the end of April. His 2007 stats might be his peak, so pay accordingly in future drafts. He is certainly worth stashing on the DL for his great speed. Alfonso Soriano is also on the 15 day DL with a strained calf muscle. Have we gone completely mad? How does one not have the bench, DL slot, or other means to not hold onto this potential fantasy threat for two weeks while his leg heals? If someone did something foolish you know what to do and pick him up for Pete's sake. Jack Cust , the journeyman with a heart of gold and a swing full of holes, has started the season like a house of fire blasting a single HR and paying gullible owners with a stiff .159 BA. If you have no alternatives that are better than Cust then your days in the fantasy basement will be long and lonely.
All comments on SP's and RP's must be 10 words or less.
Most Added:
Cliff Lee - Live arm, Ample K's, Solid #4 SP
Gavin Floyd - Great pedigree, Awful history, Ozzie's boy, Implosion immanent
Randy Wolf - Career ERA 4.32 & WHIP 1.34, Sell high and run
Wandy Rodriguez - Successful FT2SP, Match-up SP only
Most Dropped:
Dontrelle Willis - DL, Decreased velocity, Increased ratios, Roster liability
Erik Bedard - Too Expensive, Sore hip, Buy low
Tom Glavine- Too old, Too few K's, Too late
Most Added:
B.J. Ryan - HANDCUFF Accardo ASAP - That is an order
Rafael Betancourt - Jo Bo Gone, Get Kobayashi as insurance
Chad Cordero - Injured, Decreased Velocity, Stop sign
Most Dropped:
Jeremy Accardo - Ryan will not finish the season healthy
Peter Moylan - Aussie elbow surgery - "Now that's a Knife"
The rules are simple: Find SP's with two starts in the upcoming scoring period that are generally available in 50% or more leagues. Our goal is to maximize value for the coming week and then dump him for next week's choice. Flips can be a risky proposition and should only be completed with the assistance of Double Down or under close supervision of another Fantasy Baseball Geek.
We are bringing back a dangerous old favorite this week for our flip. It pains me to do this to you, but Kyle Lohse has once again been anointed as our best option. The infamous WHIP Assassin is now making his home in St. Louis after overplaying his hand in the off-season looking for a lengthy deal and ended up on a short one for decent coin. His first start will be on 4/22 against the Brewers and Manny Parra . Let's see how Lohse has done against the potent Brewers line-up over the course of his volatile career. Bill Hall 1-10, Rickie Weeks 2-9, Prince Fielder 0-7, Corey Hart 0-5, and Ryan Braun 1-3. Parra is a raw talent, but has shown inconsistency this season and could be eaten alive by Albert and the boys. Lohse second start will be on 4/27 against the Astros and Brandon Backe . Backe alone makes this a great chance for at least a victory, but this could be a slugfest as the meat of the Astros order has had their way with Lohse over the years. In his last start Backe gave up 10 hits and 2 walks in 3 innings of work while handing over 5 ER. If Lohse gets a lead he should mow down Tejada and his mates no matter what their birth certificates say. All of the evidence presented to you should give you a great deal of confidence to pick up the WHIP Assassin and Flip That Two-Start Pitcher.
Please email me with questions, comments, or to talk smack at: doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
