Icon SMI
Double Down
Free Agent Trends - Week 5
Most Added - Dioneer Navarro is back from the DL and should be considered in AL only leagues. He finished '07 in style by mashing 8 HR after the All-Star break. J.R. Towles was near the top of most sleeper lists heading into '08 and with good reason. He has double digit SB and HR potential making him a worthwhile addition in all formats. Once the steals pick up he will finish the season as a Top 10 catcher.
Most Dropped - Ronny Paulino is the victim of a horrific tandem that has gone terribly wrong. Initially the "tandem" was to be Paulino and Ryan Doumit splitting time behind the dish for the Pirates. Doumit is raking and has earned the majority of the starts. This is bad news for Paulino owners who should cut him immediately. Especially in leagues requiring only 1 catcher or NL only you should find a replacement. Pack your knives and go.
Most Added - Conor Jackson is still on fire hitting over .350 and his ownership continues to surge. Remember that I prefer Casey Kotchman if both are available. Is Eric Hinske the next great Rays reclamation project ala Carlos Pena? He has made the most of his recent increased playing time grooving 5 HR. Hinske is more of a role player these days and should probably not even be considered for a bench spot in the deepest of mixed leagues. Harsh, but true.
Most Dropped - Carlos Delgado used to be a lock for 30 HR and 110+ RBI annually. Now at age 35, injuries and father time seem to be catching up with the unpatriotic veteran 1B for the Mets. He is hitting below the Mendoza line and has only 1 round tripper thus far, so owners are deservedly frustrated. If there are better options then consider benching Delgado, but an outright drop seems too dramatic this early in the season. He should still hit at least 20 HR if he can stay on the field giving him plenty of fantasy value once he heats up.
Most Added - It did not take long for Clint Barmes to supplant the feeble bat of Jayson Nix in Colorado. After '05 Barmes seemed to be gaining some steam in fantasy circles at SS, but that fizzled and then the Rockies had the luxury of having the arrival of a superstar - Tulo . Barmes should only be considered for extremely deep NL only and mixed leagues that have a MI roster slot.
Most Dropped - Placido Polanco felt the wrath of DD earlier this year as I speculated that a dip in BA makes him a below average 2B or MI. '07 was a special season for Polanco as he lambasted AL pitchers and finished with a .340 BA. All of his other fantasy assets are minimal, so the back injury and .163 BA are a sound reason to drop. He should not have been on your squad in the first place IMAO. Tad Iguchi is taking a bath in San Diego posting a pathetic BA of .213 with no HR's. Playing in PETCO will soften your HR total, so this slump paired with the ballpark make Tad a candidate for replacement. If by some chance he is still available Jose Lopez is still scorching in Seattle and would be a fine replacement for either.
Most Added - Ryan Theriot is a truly solid fantasy asset to have on your roster. He hits for a decent average, scores a good amount of runs, and has great speed and instincts on the base paths. He has no power, but the potential for 30 SB and 90 runs makes him a solid NL only SS or an MI for mixed leagues.
Most Dropped - Say it aint so, J-Ro. Jimmy Rollins is on the DL with an ankle sprain, but even more frightening to owners was the rumor that stated he might have a break in the injured ankle. Monitor this situation closely as you might need to keep him on your league's DL for a while until we find out the truth.
Most Added - Guess which Third Baseman is currently out performing both Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Braun when considering overall 5X5 statistics? Good old Edwin Encarnacion is your answer. He already has rocked 6 homers and has 11 RBI. He is capable of being a Top 15 3B in mixed formats, so add him accordingly. Scott Rolen is back and raring to suck the life out of your 3B stats. Rolen is or should I say was a very prolific and dangerous bat, but injuries and inconsistency have sapped him of most of his value. If you have adequate insurance for a back-up then you can start the wily veteran until he returns to the DL.
Most Dropped - Kevin Kouzmanoff is one of the more volatile players discussed here at Free Agent Trends headquarters. The Kouz either runs hot or cold and could find himself on the most dropped or added list in any given stretch. At this point he has been scuffling a bit and has only 1 HR on the season. He is still a quality bat and should be considered for your CI slot in deeper mixed formats or for NL only at 3B.
Most Added - Skip Schumaker is being added recently due to his generous .313 BA. He is batting lead off for the Cardinals, but to me he is a doorstop for the sensation that is Colby Rasmus, who is lurking in the minors. Unless you are in a really deep league then you should be able to find someone more productive. Curtis Granderson delivered career numbers in '07 and has already begun to develop his next career writing every 5 minutes on ESPN. His blog updates us each time he brushes his teeth practically. He is an important part of the Tigers lineup and a valuable fantasy asset. Just remember that his 2007 was likely the peak of his fantasy output. Adam Lind has been recalled from the minors and will soon see a large spike in his ownership. Lind has very good power and can hit for a solid average. After a massively disappointing '07 when he was demoted; this time he will be up to stay and should get his chance in the coming weeks with the departure of the Big Hurt.
Most Dropped - Corey Patterson has actually had a decent start for his standards popping 4 dongs with a couple of steals. He did have an extended slump, but he can still be a productive 4 th OF especially with his wheels. Patterson should have eyes in the back of his head because a man named Bruce, Jay Bruce , is coming soon to take his job. Mark Teahen at one point in '06 seemed like a possible 20/20 candidate, but now he looks more likely to lose at bats. He has done nothing special, hitting 1 HR with 4 RBI and no steals. I cannot recommend a buy low on Teahen - turn out your lights the party is over. Austin Kearns always looks like he is primed to break out and also always looks like he needs a haircut. His putrid BA and streaky tendencies make me uncomfortable and obviously I am not alone evidenced by his drop in ownership. He is still very worthy of a 5 th OF slot even with his checkered past.
All comments on SP's and RP's must be 10 words or less.
Most Added:
Yovani Gallardo - Tremendous stuff, Will challenge as a Top 15 SP
Todd Wellemeyer - Match-up play only, just not that good
Chad Gaudin - Two-Start week should be considered
John Danks - Good but not this good, Expect the ratios to rise
Jonathan Sanchez - Electric stuff, Will mix in some major stinkers
Most Dropped:
Jake Westbrook - Injured, but not worth owning if healthy
Wandy Rodriguez - Stash him until healthy, Having a nice start
Edwin Jackson- Too erratic and unpredictable to count on
Ian Kennedy - Finesse is a shampoo, still a Yankee SP though
Most Added:
Brian Fuentes - He's baaack, Pick up in all formats
J.J. Putz - Injury a concern, but still a force
Manny Acosta - Atlanta Closer de jour, Salivating Mike Gonzalez is healing
Most Dropped:
Manny Corpas - At least he got paid, drop him
Mark Lowe - Looked scared and may never close again
Chad Cordero - Never that good, Dr. Andrews on speed dial
For those that are paying attention you will notice that there was no DOUBLE DOWN handed out this week. In an effort to keep the award credible it will only be given during a week when it is truly deserved. It will also only be given to a player on one occasion, so for example Yovani Gallardo would not be eligible since he got one last season.
The rules are simple: Find SP's with two starts in the upcoming scoring period that are generally available in 50% or more leagues. Our goal is to maximize value for the coming week and then dump him for next week's choice. Flips can be a risky proposition and should only be completed with the assistance of Double Down or under close supervision of another Fantasy Baseball Geek.
***WARNING*** The following flip is considered for high risk owners only; passive aggressive GM's should start someone with lower risk and no potential for a reward
Icon SMI
This flip resembles trying to drive on a freeway going 80 with a blindfold on, but that is what makes Daniel Cabrera so exciting. There is no question that he has tremendous ability, but he has stretches where he looks horrible and walks the ballpark. This season he has relied more heavily on his fastball and has decreased his BB total in each of his starts. In '07 he posted an ERA at home of 6.42 (barf) and had a road ERA of 4.26. His two starts this week are both on the road against the White Sox and LA Angels. While I usually quote some historical stats against the opposing teams; the numbers would scare off even the most risky owners since Cabrera has been pummeled by just about everyone over the last few years. All of the evidence presented to you should give you a tiny bit of confidence to close your eyes for the week and Flip That Two-Start Pitcher.
Please email me with questions, comments, or to talk smack at: doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
