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Free Agent Trends - Week 6
Most Added - We are just entering May and already the influx of minor league prospects is astounding. The veterans had better step up, as there is some serious talent on the rise. The Mariners have decided to promote highly touted youngster Jeff Clement who will see time at C and DH. He is capable of jacking 20 over a full season with a decent BA. Clement was ranked 42 nd on Baseball America's 2008 Top 100 Prospects while hot hitting Geovany Soto was 47 th and J.R. Towles was 53 rd . He is a must add in AL only and should receive consideration in deep Mixed leagues.
Most Dropped - Jorge Posada is proof that signing a 36-year-old catcher coming off a career season to a 4 year 52.4 million dollar contract is downright laughable. Posada has a very serious shoulder issue and even got to visit with Dr. James Andrews . He will likely be out until at least the middle of June, but that might be a little ambitious. Stash him on your DL and roll the dice with a player like Clement as a replacement.
Most Added - The usual suspects continue to rise at this position heading into week 6, but one blast from the past showed up as a blip on the radar. Chris Shelton was called up by the Rangers and will see spot duty at 1B along with Ben Broussard and the immortal Salty . Shelton has little value and should not be added in any format, but it is good to see a player that hit 10 HR in April of '06 for the Tigers back in the big leagues.
Most Dropped - Mike Jacobs has begun the season en fuego blasting 8 HR with 19 RBI. His injury prone reputation reared its ugly head and Jacobs had to sit out several games with a sprained middle finger. As a Jacobs owner this is frustrating to the point where it makes you want to extend your own middle finger in a not so pleasant gesture to the brittle annual disappointment. Don't drop him just yet as he returned to the line-up on Friday and then went yard on Saturday. Despite missing almost a week of action he has still out-produced the following 1B when considering overall 5X5 stats for '08: Prince Fielder , Mark Teixeira , Ryan Howard , and Carlos Pena .
Most Added - Felipe Lopez reclaimed the 2B job for the Nat's and has begun to deliver immediate results. Lopez could also qualify at SS depending on you leagues rules, so he has a good deal of versatility. He has significant speed potential having already swiped 44 in '06 and 24 in '07. Felipe is a must add in NL only and should be considered in deep mixed leagues for owners looking for cheap steals.
Most Dropped - Aaron Hill is off to a decent start, but is not on pace to achieve the mid teens HR many project. Hill is a nice buy low candidate and should be picked up off the wire if someone else punted in AL only.
Most Added - Erick Aybar is finally getting the chance to play every day, flash his brilliant glove, and has been hitting over .300 for good measure. The real value he brings is in SB's as he should swipe over 30 this year. Aybar is a great addition in AL only or as a MI in mixed formats.
Most Dropped - It always seems ironic when a talented player signs a huge contract and then almost immediately gets seriously injured. Case in point is Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki . Tulo is on the shelf until after the All-Star break with a torn tendon in his quad. Hopefully you did not move him up too much on draft day after his monster '07 campaign as losing a high pick like this can be devastating to a fantasy teams chances. Stash him on the DL and hit the wire.
Most Added - Mike Lowell is back after a DL stint of the 15-day variety because of a sprained thumb. It will be tough for the veteran to match his '07 totals, but he is still a major force in AL only and deep mixed formats at the hot corner. Brandon Wood got the call recently for the Angels, but don't expect him to walk in and deliver the 40 HR power that he has shown in the minors. He has been more of a strikeout machine than home run king and his stock has taken a dip in recent years. Still a great long-term prospect, but this season will probably not be a relevant one for fantasy.
Most Dropped - Hank Blalock is public enemy number one for owners that get spiked with the injury bug. Blalock reeks of sheer power and potential, but always disappoints with either extended slumps or continuous injury problems. He is again on the DL with a hamstring tear, so hopefully those that gambled on him have some sort of 3B insurance to replace him with.
Most Added - Carlos Quentin to me projected as a solid hitter, but his lack of power had been a concern. Quentin is changing many minds on that topic and turning some heads as he has launched 8 bombs already this season. He will not likely sustain this pace, but delivering 25-30 HR is much more than anyone could have projected. He is a must add in all formats. Alfonso Soriano came off the DL this week after recovering from a calf issue. He immediately started running his mouth about stealing 30 bases and I believe he will. Soriano is still an elite power/speed combo that should be added or acquired on the cheap in all formats. Emil Brown is not breaking out at age 33, but he has gotten off to a nice start drilling 26 RBI off AL pitching. He will not continue at this pace and you should try to sell high to anyone that will listen. He is a possible 5 th OF while this surge continues. Ryan Church is really raking right now shellacking 4 HR, pounding 22 RBI, and posting an unsustainable BA of .330. He is worth starting at this point, but his real value would be to sell high to an owner that believes this production will continue over a full season. Shane Victorino has delivered a real Hawaiian punch to owners thus far as he has spent some time on the DL with a calf issue. He is back and should be a very useful OF in all formats once the wheels start to fly. Wladimir Balentien is the other top prospect to get the call in Seattle. Balentien projects to have 30 HR power with double digit SB potential and a decent average. He will strike out a ton, but the home runs will also be ample. Balentien is worth using right away in AL only and is very worthy of a bench spot for deep mixed leagues.
Most Dropped - Josh Willingham landed on the DL Friday with a stiff back. This is a horrific turn of events following his great start. Stash him and pray the numbers return in a couple of weeks. Chris Duncan is without question never going to win a batting title, but his power has always made him a viable 5 th OF. Porking only 2 jacks thus far has sent his ownership into a decline. He will likely turn things around and still get you 20+ HR, so he actually might be a nice pick up for depth on your bench if another owner let him go. Lastings Millidge is probably not as good as he himself thinks he is, but he still does possess many talents that make him an annual breakout candidate. He has playing time now, so it is put up or shut up. Stash him on your bench and see if he can live up to the hype.
All comments on SP's and RP's must be 10 words or less.
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Most Added:
Max Scherzer - Great talent, Great K's, Must Own
Andy Sonnanstine - Great start, Decent stuff, Spot start only
Aaron Cook - Not worth owning, Below average everything
Scott Kazmir - Electric Stuff, Must Add, Still DL candidate though
Nick Adenhart - Long-term keeper, Short-term crapshoot
Most Dropped:
Phil Hughes - Ribs, Glasses, July at the earliest
John Smoltz - Age 40, Closer Redux in a few weeks
Yovani Gallardo - Season likely over, 2009 Value
Francisco Liriano - Not the same, but will still be solid later on
Most Added:
Aquilino Lopez - Todd Jones stinks and he is the next in line
Troy Percival - Awesome start, DL will happen in '08
Most Dropped:
Rafael Soriano - Value Plummets with Smoltz return to pen
Kerry Wood - 3 Blown, Marmol methodically hunting him down
The rules are simple: Find SP's with two starts in the upcoming scoring period that are generally available in 50% or more leagues. Our goal is to maximize value for the coming week and then dump him for next week's choice. Flips can be a risky proposition and should only be completed with the assistance of Double Down or under close supervision of another Fantasy Baseball Geek.
I am going back to the well this week by selecting yet another of the very available Orioles SP's for our flip. Last week Daniel Cabrera delivered 2 quality starts posting a 3.29 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 0 Wins, and 8 K's. Brian Burres has had a nice start to the season with 3 Wins, 19 K's, a 2.87 ERA, and a 1.28 WHIP. His first match-up will be at Oakland against Justin Duchscherer on 5/6. Burres handled the A's in '07 going 1-0 in two appearances with a 1.00 ERA over 9 innings of work. The second match-up will be against Brian Bannister in Kansas City on 5/11. Burres pitched an inning of scoreless relief against the Royals last season. After a hot start the Bannister "is the best thing since sliced bread" chants seem to be dying down a bit. He was abused in his last effort against the Rangers to the tune of 7 ER. He is ripe for the picking. All of the evidence presented to you should give you the confidence to light that candle and Flip That Two-Start Pitcher.
Please email me with questions, comments, or to talk smack at: doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
