Raven Maniac
Flying High!
... picking the waiver wire clean, one pitcher
at a time.
This is the eighth edition of a regular feature here on www.fantasybaseballgeeks.com ... Flying High! Every couple of weeks this crazy Raven recaps a few pitchers who *might* be available on your league's waiver wire and give you a bird's eye view of what to expect if you add them to your roster.
With the All-Star break upon us, I thought I might deviate just a bit from covering the possible waiver wire additions to your major league fantasy roster, and instead, revisit the 2008 midsummer classic.
"Wait. The All-Star game hasn't taken place yet, so how can you "revisit" the midsummer classic before it's been played?" Actually, the classic I am referring to is the true roto maniac's version of nirvana - the Futures Game - played this past Sunday afternoon in historic Yankee Stadium. A collection of the hottest kid prospects playing in Yankee Stadium as the sun sets on that hallowed ground ... what could be more classic?!? Keep in mind, in the 2007 Futures Game Joba Chamberlain and Clay Buchholz were there, and just a few weeks later Chamberlain was the hottest commodity in fantasy baseball and Buchholz was pitching a no-hitter for the Red Sox.
Alright, let's get started with chapter 8, the Futures Game Special Edition of Flying High! ...
Trevor Cahill (Oakland) - Without question Trevor Cahill is turning heads and making even the more casual fantasy baseball owners take notice. In 2007 he established himself as a top prospect in a minor league system (Oakland) that has become very deep in pitching talent. In 2008, the numbers have continued to suggest major league caliber ability. His strength lies in the array of pitches he can throw at any time with confidence. He doesn't have a ++ fastball, a knee-buckling curve, a devastating slider, or a baffling change up ... what he does have is a collection of high quality "all of the above" with the command to hit his spots with any of them regardless of the count. He has run up gaudy strikeout numbers in the minors and the k/9 rate is likely to drop as he faces better competition - A ball hitters aren't used to facing pitchers with Cahill's mound presence and command of so many pitches so they often lose the guessing game when facing him. He is not likely to be an ace but a 2 or 3 is certainly within his reach.
Recommendation: There are still a few (the number is shrinking) doubters who feel Cahill doesn't have the "stuff" to translate his minor league numbers to the major leagues. His fastball tops out in the 92-93 mph range which certainly qualifies him as something other than a soft-tosser, but his strikeout totals lead some to believe he is overmatching his competition and they will catch up with him as he moves up in level. Therefore, he could still be available in some leagues and you want him on your roster when he proves the doubters wrong. ETA: Late 2008 or 2009.
Jake Arrieta (Baltimore) - Not unlike Cahill, Arrieta has a nice variety of solid, if not spectacular, pitches including a low to mid 90's fastball, a good curve, a slider, and a developing change up. He keeps hitters off balance by very effectively changing speeds and his breaking pitches have a nice down angle that generates a lot of misses when he is ahead in the count. His command has been spotty this year but he projects as a good control pitcher as he gains maturity and learns to trust his stuff. He has dominated in A ball so a move to AA should be a good indicator of his future ceiling - probably a 2 or 3, again similar to Cahill. I think Cahill has better mound presence at this time but Arrieta could catch up as he develops so he is worth watching as he moves along.
Recommendation: Only having seen one inning, it is hard for me to really predict where he will end up and when he will get there, but his success so far as a professional suggests he could be effective at the MLB level within the next couple of years. He is not being rushed and will probably spend at least the rest of this year and next in the minors before being given serious consideration as a starter for Baltimore. ETA: Possibly late 2009 but more likely 2010.
Henry Rodriguez (Oakland) - Our first two Futures Game considerations have good but not necessarily great stuff ... that is not the case with another A's prospect, Henry Rodriguez. He can work consistently in the high 90's and can break triple digits when he reaches back a bit. One of three A's pitchers to work in this year's game (Cahill and lefty Brett Anderson were the other two), Rodriguez is all about power. He lacks command right now but he is making progress. After issuing a couple of walks in the game, he blew some pretty good young hitters away with that nasty heat. Rodriguez is not major league ready at this point in his development, but he has what could prove to be "closer's stuff" and he has the mental toughness to make it work. He is starting in the minors (which is much more useful in bringing a potential closer along because the young pitcher is forced to refine his peripheral pitches) and he could end up a starter at the MLB level ... either way he is a good one to have on your roster.
Recommendation: Probably the best raw "stuff" of all the pitchers who threw in the 2008 Futures Game, Rodriguez is not a secret to those who follow minor league baseball and track prospects. There has been no indication that Rodriquez will be switched to the bullpen, that is Raven speculation, but he has the capabilities to be a good one and with current A's closer Huston Street constantly mentioned in possible deals, you never know. ETA: He could possibly get a look this September but more likely 2009-2010.
Shairon Martis (Washington) - Now for a couple of potential sleepers. Sometimes opportunity is the key to a young pitcher's arrival at the major league level. Shairon Martis does not have the sparkling minor league numbers of a lot of the other pitching prospects and many project him to be a middle of the rotation prospect at best so he is probably flying under the radar in your league. So why bring up a guy with less than "sparkling minor league numbers" and who is under the radar? Well, the Raven thinks there are some things to consider before eliminating Martis as a possible contributor to your fantasy team. First, he is now pitching in AAA. He just turned 21 this spring and has therefore accumulated those less than sparkling minor league numbers against hitters who were often several years older - that's significant. He works low to mid 90's, has good movement, and is extremely polished for his age. Finally, he pitches in the Nationals system and opportunity knocks regularly for young pitchers coming through that organization. He won't be the ace of the staff but don't be surprised if he becomes a reliable rotation guy with a potentially higher ceiling if he continues to develop.
Recommendation: He could use a full season in AAA and some time to build on more physical strength which would make him a better consideration in mid to late 2009, but the Nationals could give him a taste as early as September of this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a serious look as a rotation possibility next spring. He currently has decent stuff but his ticket to the majors is excellent mound presence. ETA: Probably 2009
Icon SMI
Polin Trinidad (Houston) - A lesser known lefty in the Astros' system, Trinidad showed some potential in his one inning of work in the Futures Game. He isn't overpowering, but he throws strikes, has good movement on his pitches, and he is not afraid to work inside which is very helpful in keeping hitters off balance. He kept the ball down and looks like he could be a nice groundball pitcher although he isn't likely to have big strikeout totals. Trinidad was recently promoted to AA after a strong start in A ball this year and he isn't the kind of pitcher who will necessarily move quickly through the minor league levels so he might be more of a "file the name away and monitor his progress" type of pick rather than an imminent difference maker at the MLB level. Because he has pretty good command and keeps the ball down in the zone he could be a useful back of the rotation type in the future.
Recommendation: As mentioned, Trinidad is probably not the guy who will arrive this August and immediately have a huge impact on the Houston pitching staff. His fastball is only high 80's but can touch 90-91 on occasion and his motion suggests he could improve on that as he matures. He's more of a long shot possibility ETA: late 2009 or 2010.