Son of Zim
Things that we Have Learned in Fantasy 2008
Boston Red Sox
Offense:
Dustin Pedroia is the best overall offensive player on the Red Sox. There I said it and it needed to be said. Not something anyone would have predicted but it's become a fact. He has speed, pop and terrific baseball sense. David Ortiz is showing some distinct signs of wear and tear and is probably headed for a decline soon. On the bright side, Jason Bay fit right in and seems to have resurrected himself yet again. You can never count out Bay because he has that 100/30/100 talent. Jacoby Ellsbury turned out to need more of an adjustment period than previously thought, but no doubt will be an elite fantasy player someday. Mike Lowell is hanging on by a thread and Jed Lowrie is not the answer. Kevin Youkilis on the other hand is a force to be reckoned with and a great middle of the order hitter. With Pedroia, Youkilis and Ellsbury the Sox seem to have transitioned into phase two of a dynasty while the Yanks are desperately trying to cling to their rapidly aging stars. Jason Varitek's career seems to be winding down. A great leader and a true gamer Varitek is worthy of an old school Viking funeral. Valhalla for Varitek!
Oh yeah, don't forget the J.D. in Drew's name stands for Joins Disabled-List (yet again). When are you gong to learn?
Pitching:
Last year was as good as it will get for Beckett and this year's version is more likely to resurface in 2009. Matsuzaka walks the ballpark but is a win machine. How he is 17-2 was unbelievable and you should realize that no matter how good an offense is, Dice-K will not win 15+ next year unless he gets the walks under control. The real ace for the Sox was Jon Lester whose story is as heartwarming as his stats. He is the real deal folks. Clay Buchholz looked dazed and confused and seems to have taken a big hit in the confidence department. Papelbon is still a top 3 closer but he did prove to be a tad more human. Maybe the Red Sox extended seasons wore him out. Tim Wakefield and Jaime Moyer will be staring in the third installment of the Grumpy Old Men Franchise set to open next spring.
Icon SMI
Tampa Bay Rays
Offense:
It is rare that an over-hyped rookie delivers. Evan Longoria was the exception to the rule. Despite an injury that cost him a chunk of the season Longoria showed solid power and RBI potential. There is little doubt he will be in the heart of the Rays lineup for many years to come and is one of the brightest keeper candidates out there. Carl Crawford is overrated. Yes, he is! And now that his speed has declined his value is even weaker. If you want power/speed in the outfield look right next door in center to B.J. Upton whose 40+ steals gave him enormous value in points leagues counteracting his strikeouts. Carlos Pena did reach a decent power plateau again but is a one dimensional one-year-wonder. Iwamura is a stop-gap middle infielder and Dioner Navarro developed into a nice #2 catcher.
Pitching:
The Rays pitching was a bit of a rollercoaster as was their season. James Shields is by far their most reliable starter however and an ERA of 2.30 at home and 5.00 on the road is something to take notice. Shields did have some dominant outings and continues to be an asset to all rotations, fantasy and reality. Kazmir was an enigma looking dominant and pedestrian start to start. High pitch counts and arm troubles are enough red flags to stay away. Sonnanstine and Jackson are not worth considering and Matt Garza needs to start striking out some more hitters to become a fantasy stud. David Price finally made it to the show and seems to have the right focus and makeup to live up to his billing. With Price and Shields at the top, Tampa has a bright future.
Toronto Blue Jays
Offense:
Vernon Wells is frustrating between underperformance and injuries, but when healthy this year he was a standout player and will probably come at a discount next year with his overall stats being affected by DL stints. Alex Rios is the definition of "nice" player but not someone to build a team around. For Adam Lind the third time was a charm as he put his struggles behind him this summer. Double his numbers and you get a 20/80 season. The infield in Toronto leaves a lot to be desired as Rolen is over the hill, and Overbay is below average at best. Inglett, Hill and Scutaro sounds like a Brooklyn law firm.
Pitching:
Roy Halladay was simply awesome this year posting far greater strikeout rates than we have seen in a while from him. Maybe he's trying to play his way off the Jays. A.J. Burnett proved again that when he takes the mound he is a very valuable commodity. Both guys had 18 W 200K seasons. Marcum pitched well before getting hurt and McGowan had some moments. Litsch and Carlson showed some promise as well. In his first year back. B.J. Ryan was so-so as expected and is probably more likely to decline than dominate next year.
New York Yankees
Offense:
Despite missing time A-Rod had another banner year by anyone else's standards. Most fans think 50 homers or bust, but 35/100+ is nothing to sneer at even if he is becoming a very streaky player in the second phase of his career. Derek Jeter remained a steady and unspectacular option at shortstop continuing to hit for a high average. Robinson Cano was by far the biggest disappointment in fantasy 2009. Poised to be the next great Yankee star he was a disaster and is not going to EVER become the kind of cornerstone player Yankee brass predicted. If Cano was a horrendous disappointment, then Jason Giambi was the prize at the bottom of the Cracker Jack box. No one saw it coming but the Giambino showed more pinstripe pride than his teammates and turned in a season that just might extend his career. Whether or not it is in NY remains to be seen. Abreu and Alex Rios are essentially the same players only with a five year age difference. Johnny Damon is still productive but you just have the feeling of impending doom. Xavier Nady had a career year and could turn out to be the poor man's Raul Ibanez the rest of his career if he sticks in the AL. (Now there is a phrase you thought you'd never hear!) Pudge is done and Posada might be pulling up the rear.
Pitching:
Mike Mussina showed that youth and skill is no match for old age and treachery, or at least an old fart playing for one more big pay day...and he just might get it. Wang's injury robbed the fantasy world of another incomprehensible 18W 100K season. Andy Pettite looked mediocre, while Ponson and Pavano are what you'd expect...useless. Hughes and Kennedy seemed like they would be more comfortable in the Little League World Series. Joba Chamberlain has a great deal of talent but there are questions about his handling by the Yankees. I personally don't like the bullpen-rotation-bullpen shuffle he did this year. And speaking of bullpen Mariano Rivera should be inducted into the Hall of Fame the day after he retires. Anyone who thinks he is not the greatest relief pitcher ever is delusional. 39years old 1.50 ERA and 36 Saves...Unreal!
Baltimore Orioles
Offense:
Even though the Orioles stunk there were some bright spots in the offense. When Nick Markakis takes the next step and hits 30 home runs he will be a franchise talent. Right now he is right at the edge. He is still young so there is hope that more power is in his future. Adam Jones looked like a young Eric Davis once he stopped swinging at every pitch and swung at every other one instead. If he gets that under wraps Jones can be a nice 3 rd outfielder as soon as next year. Aubrey Huff became a monster in 2008 and probably even surprised himself. I guess he got tired of bouncing around and being a bench player. Luke Scott is a player to stash on your bench for a hot streak but don't be fooled he is not an everyday fantasy player and neither is Kevin Millar. Melvin Mora showed some spunk and drove in 100 which was a very nice surprise. Ramon Hernandez was still a useful offensive catcher and Brian Roberts was an outstanding value at second base without much fanfare.
Pitching:
The good feelings end here. This is an awful staff top to bottom with the exception of Jeremy Guthrie, who is a spot starter with decent secondary numbers. Oriole pitching is not good and has no signs of getting better anytime soon.
Chicago White Sox
Offense:
Yes, yes my Carlos Quentin Man-Crush is well documented but before the broken wrist he had the White Sox on his back and about to carry them right into the playoffs. Quentin could be the second coming of Jeff Bagwell if he can stay on the field. Nick Swisher missed an opportunity to take his game to the next level and hit a poultry .222. Jermaine Dye on the other hand had another productive year. Thome proved to still be a power threat and Paul Konerko looked old and tired most of the year. Orlando Cabrera continued to be a great value pick at short and Peirzynski was a useful backstop. Another great surprise was Alexei Ramirez. Next year he qualifies at 2B and SS and the Cuban defector looked like an All Star in the making.
Pitching:
Javier Vazquez is a painfully .500 pitcher despite outstanding strikeout totals. A move back to the NL would serve him well. Mark Buehrle rebounded from a rocky start to be a #5 starter in fantasy leagues. Gavin Floyd and John Danks stepped out to the big stage and performed well but something about their success still leaves me unsettled. I just don't buy it yet. Their inability to strikeout hitters makes them risky next year with Danks looking like the better choice. They might be the poster boys for the "record is overrated for pitchers" theory. Bobby Jenks needs to hit the treadmill before he looses his closer role next year. His numbers are not what you are looking for.
Minnesota Twins
Offense:
Even though Morneau's homer total dipped a bit he still drove in 120 runs and is as good an RBI man as there is in the AL. Justin is still not yet 30 and has potential to be an MVP-type player for the next few years. Joe Mauer is becoming a very dependable high average hitter with good numbers across the board with the exception of homers. Delmon Young was surprisingly similar. A player thought to be the next great power hitter has had little success reaching the cheap seats. Michael Cuddyer missed most of the year but Jason Kubel filled the mediocre mold nicely. Alexi Casilla played over his head based on minor league stats but you never know when certain guys just click at the right time. Carlos Gomez is still all-glove-no-stick and probably will stay that way his entire career. The most exciting offensive emergence late this year was undoubtedly Denard Span. Span looks like a 40SB guy who can hit. 280 with 100R and you know his defense will always keep him in the lineup. You've gotta hand it to the Twinkies...they keep producing talent and they are always competitive.
Pitching:
Most people who spent the year waiting on Francisco Liriano ended up ruining their season. Even when he did pitch he was good more often then great. The jury is still out on his bounce-back ability. The Twins rotation that follows him is basically a collection of pitchers who seem to win games with the most boring secondary stats in baseball. Baker, Blackburn and Perkins barely reach 300 strikeouts between them. The best of the boring is Kevin Slowey whose incredible control makes him a better choice than any other Minnesota starter next season. At the back end Joe Nathan was a rock yet again and is as close to a sure thing that there is in baseball.
Cleveland Indians
Offense:
Even with no support, Grady Sizemore looked like the franchise player in 2008 everyone was waiting for. He is a 30/30 lock and one of the best keepers around. Kelly Shoppach matched Victor Martinez's power numbers, and with Travis Hafner's career nearly over and Ryan Garko a disappointment, expect Victor to be at 1B next year for the tribe. Jhonny Peralta had another quietly good year as did Shin-Soo Choo and Ben Francisco. In the words of my grandfather Andy Marte is a "bum".
Pitching:
Cliff Lee showed us that he was pitching to save his career this year after struggling mightily between the minor leagues and the Indians the past few seasons. With a 22-2 record (to date) he was the most dominant pitcher in the AL and looks like a sure thing next year. Expect the record to come back to earth. Fausto Carmona walks way to many hitters to be effective and should be avoided. Anthony Reyes' change of venue might make him a sleeper next year which the Indians could use considering that Sowers and Laffey just aren't as good as scouts predicted.
Detroit Tigers
Offense:
Ahh...what could have been. Miguel Cabrera adjusted and put up his usual incredible stats and keep in mind he is still isn't even 26. He is a 35/120 monster and has a lot of baseball left to play. Jump on him next year post trade hype. Magglio Ordonez is still a great hitter and Edgar Renteria and Carlos Guillen are heading south. Curtis Granderson is making progress and maturing at the plate. Don't be surprised if he dazzles next year. You simply cannot stop Placido Polanco from hitting .300.
Garry Sheffield...don't let the door hit you on the way out. And if it does, try some of that "magical cream" if it hurts.
Pitching:
Justin Verlander was downright frustrating and is not a player to invest in. There is something wrong in DET when guys like him and Bonderman look like stars and then become almost non-factors in a short period of time. That reminds me, Dontrelle Willis...the novelty is over. The rest of this staff is not worth discussion, even Armando Galarraga who pitched way over his head.
Kansas City Royals
Offense:
When Mike Aviles is your most exciting offensive player there is little else to say. Alex Gordon seems like he was rushed to the majors. DeJesus is serviceable at best and the rest of this bunch is lame. NOTE: Billy Butler is not the next Edgar Martinez. And by the way, Aviles stats are fiction. Don't buy in.
Pitching:
Gil Meche might get a lot more print if he pitched somewhere else and actually has been worth his contract to an extent. His record will always be sad but the other stats are quite good. Speaking of sad, Zack Grienke is not depressed anymore! He has ace potential and is a very good pitcher to draft next year. The real gem here is Joakim Soria. This guy is lights out and is the best kept secret in fantasy bullpens everywhere. The Royals being awful has no effect on his value. He is top 5 closer world right now.
Los Angeles Angels
Offense:
So Mark Teixeira is not a 40 homer threat, but he is an excellent fantasy hitter for the middle of your order. Staying with Scioscia in Anaheim would be a good fit for him. Vlad Guerrero is no longer elite talent. He is a #1 outfielder but would be better as a #2. Torii Hunter played at his career averages ala Jermaine Dye and Garret Anderson defies all logic and produced yet again. Chone Figgins is becoming frustrating and no longer worth the stress. Howie Kendrick has played too many years now to be "up-and-coming". He is here and he is overrated.
Pitching:
John Lackey is a great top of the rotation guy. The big Texan wants the ball and delivers consistently every year. Ervin Santana cracked 15W and 200K's and looks like has turned a corner. He is a much better investment than Francisco Liriano. Jered Weaver is not that much better than his brother was in his day and Jon Garland is not a fantasy pitcher. Joe Sanders is pretty much Garland with a bit more talent, but his value is too reliant on record to make a big investment. K-Rod will get his pay day and despite his 60 saves his innings and pitch counts are more reasonable than you might think. Don't buy that bill of goods that he will blow his arm out. He has been very well handled.
Texas Rangers
Offense:
Josh Hamilton was a great story and a makes you wonder what would have happened without the turmoil. But you have to enjoy this powerful offensive force while you have it. He might even get better if you can imagine now that he is used to starting for a whole season. Ian Kinsler grew into arguably the best fantasy second basemen this year scoring 100 runs in 121 games with 18 homers and 25+ steals. He is one to watch. Michael Young is still a nice player, while Chris Davis and Nelson Cruz showed promise.
Pitching:
Can we get an ERA under 5.00 first? Then we'll talk.
Seattle Mariners
Offense:
Death, Taxes and Ichiro getting 200 hits. That guy is as good as it gets (8yrs 200+hits) Raul Ibanez was his old quiet self, 95+ RBI four years in a row. Adrian Beltre is never going to be more than a .275 20/80 player. Jose Lopez on the other hand was vastly underrated with 15/85 at 2B. There is little else to get excited about in the Rainy City.
Pitching:
Erik Bedard ruined many people seasons including the Mariners. His attitude and arm are huge question marks and you should avoid finding the answers. Felix Hernandez pitched much better than his record and looks like he just might be the next big time pitcher after all. He is a gamer too. Draft him while others reach for David Price. Brandon Morrow is a nice sleeper for '09 and Putz was never healthy all year. (too soon to write him off yet)
Oakland A's
Offense:
This is a pathetic group of players that shouldn't be in the major leagues yet, shouldn't be in the major leagues still or should have played field hockey instead.
Pitching:
This is a pathetic group of players that shouldn't be in the major leagues yet, shouldn't be in the major leagues still or should have played field hockey instead.
Honorable Mention for Justin Duchscherer who had a nice season until wearing out as expected.
What did you learn in 2008? Send me an email at SonOfZim@fantasybaseballgeeks.com .