Fantasy Baseball Geeks

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Owned in only 12% of Yahoo! Leagues and 6% of ESPN Leagues, Bud Norris has recently been ignored by many fantasy owners.  Though his overall stats (6-7, 5.03 ERA, 1.43 ERA) may have led to his low ownership numbers, Norris is coming on strong when fantasy owners need him the most. Despite struggling with his command the first part of the season, Norris has been excellent since coming off the DL due to a biceps injury in late June. Before the injury, Norris was 2-5 with a 6.80 ERA, with rates of 5.35 BB/9 and 11.12 K/9. Despite getting knocked around for 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his first start off the DL, Norris has gone 4-2 with a 3.91 ERA, 2.74 BB/9 and 8.09 K/9. Though his K rate is down, 8.09 is still a solid figure and considering his walk rate has fallen by 2.5 per game, the trade-off of strikeouts seems to be worth it. Norris has been at his best in August, going 3-0 with a 3.58 ERA and great overall command (3.44 K/BB).

Bud Norris - Icon SMI

Norris’ strong second half can be partly attributed to his bad luck in the first half. With BABIP of 0.415 and 0.389 in April in May vs. 0.283 and 0.256 in July and August, Norris’ BABIP is now right in line with his career average (0.331 vs. 0.330).  His LOB% rate was also on the low end in April in May with 60.6% and 57.5% compared to the league average of 72%. His current 63.8% rate is still below the average and also below his career average, so don’t be surprised to see his August success translate to September. With some good luck, a decreasing walk rate, decreasing LD% and increasing GB%, Norris is looking like a solid option not only for the remainder of the season, but also as a potential sleeper for next season.

As always, feel free to send an questions/comments via email: draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com or hit up the message board below.

Articles, Draft Guru Bud Norris

DraftGuru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

As rosters expand in September, different teams use this roster expansion for different reasons. A team bound for the playoffs may use the additional roster spots to spell their starters over the last few weeks. A playoff contender can add some additional pitching and bench depth in order to throw fresh arms when needed and a bottom-feeder can call-up prospects to measure how ‘major league ready’ they may be. Below is a short, but meaningful, list of some potential September call-ups to keep an eye on in the coming weeks:

Mark Trumbo - Icon SMI

Jordan Lyles (HOU, SP): Coming into 2010, Lyles was ranked the #3 overall prospect for the Astros and their top overall pitching prospect. Though offered a scholarship to play wide receiver for the University of South Carolina, Lyles was selected as a supplemental 1^st round pick by the Astros in 2008. Lyles pitched in Rookie League and Low A ball in his in first season in 2008. In 2009, he pitched exclusively in Low A, putting up a 3.24 ERA with 10.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 1.19 WHIP. Entering 2010, Lyles had yet to turn 20 years old, but started the year at AA, skipping High A all together. After posting a 7-9 record with 3.12 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 rates, Lyles was promoted to AAA. Thus far in AAA, Lyles had two rough starts (6 IP, 8 H, 4 ER; 4 IP, 11 H, 5 ER), but looked solid in his last outing (6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER). Lyles claimed the title of being the youngest pitcher in the Pacific Coast League (AAA) this season by making his debut at the age of 19, a mark held earlier this season by Madison Bumgarner. The overall scouting report on Lyles is that his tall frame (6 foot 4, 185 lbs) and overall athleticism (see: football scholarship) helps him maintain a repetitive, fluid delivery that helps his overall command of pitches. Manager Brad Mills and GM Ed Wade have both made indications as recently as a few weeks ago that Lyles could potentially make his major league debut this season.  It’s been speculated that Lyles could even potentially break camp in 2011 as the Astros 5^th starter at the age of 20. Of course, there are many variables that can factor into that decision, but any time a team is even considering bringing up a 19 year old pitcher with the talent of Lyles, owners in keeper fantasy leagues need to take note.

Mark Trumbo (LAA, 1B): Over the past few seasons, Trumbo has established himself as the prototypical power hitting first baseman. Last season at AA over 137 games, Trumbo hit 0.291 with 15 HR, 88 RBI. This season, in 50 less AB at AAA, Trumbo is hitting the same (0.291), but is up to 30 HR, 104 RBI, 90 runs with an OPS of 0.911. Though Trumbo has struggled with his plate discipline over the past few seasons (100 K vs. 37 walks last year; 115 K vs. 53 walks this season), Trumbo has improved his walk rates in July (11.1%) and August (18.8%) showing more patience than in the past. With the Angels all but out of the playoff picture, manager Mike Scioscia has been hesitant to call on Trumbo. However, with Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera now splitting duties at 1B and rosters set to expand, don’t be surprised to see the 24 year old Trumbo in a Halos uniform in the next few weeks.

Brandon Allen (ARI, LF): Primarily a 1B in the minors, Allen has made the transition to LF this season, playing a total of 30 games for AAA Reno, committing only 1 error with 44 put-outs.  Though he’s set to play LF this season when he gets called up, GM Jerry DiPoto has indicated Allen’s primary position will probably end up being 1B in the long run. Allen has continued to mash in the minors this season, hitting 25 HR with 80 RBI, 72 runs and 0.948 OPS at AAA. This follows seasons of 29/ 75/ 87/ 0.922 and 20/ 75/ 78/ 0.876 in under 135 games both seasons. Only 24, Allen has tremendous power upside and though he has more value in keeper leagues, he could still provide some pop down the stretch if given everyday AB (which seems likely considering Allen is “definitely in our plans” according to DiPoto).

Yunesky Maya (WAS, SP): A somewhat under the radar signing by the Nationals at the end of July, the 28 year old Cuban defector signed with the Nats for a reported $4 million over 6 years. In his last season in the Cuban National Series (equivalent of MLB) in 2008-2009, Maya was 13-4 with 7 complete games, a 2.22 ERA and finished second to only Aroldis Chapman (130) in K’s with 119, earning the equivalent of the Cy Young Award.  In three appearances thus far in the minors, Maya’s given up 7 earned runs in 11 innings. However, 6 of those runs came in his last appearance over 4 innings. Of the other 7 innings he’s pitched, he gave up only 3 hits and 1 run with 5 K’s and 2 walks. Despite a blister issue on his throwing hand (right), Maya is slated to make one more start at a higher level, either AA or AAA, then be called up on September 1. Teamed with fellow Cuban defector Livan Hernandez, the transition should be much easier for Maya than other Cuban players, so don’t be surprised if he has some success early on.

Of course, there are many other September call-ups that could make an impact both down the stretch and in the future. Any other prospects you’re interested in seeing? Hit up the message board below to let your thoughts be heard.

 As always, feel free to send any questions/comments via email: draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Articles, Draft Guru Brandon Allen, Jordan Lyles, Mark Trumbo, Yunesky Maya

DraftGuru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

With only 6 full weeks left in the MLB regular season and even less for most fantasy leagues, it’s important to get the most “bang for your buck” from your relief pitchers the last few weeks before the playoffs begin. Grabbing even a handful of extra K’s, Saves or Holds over the next few weeks could pay huge dividends. Here are a few pitchers who have faired well recently and are certainly worth a look for any fantasy team over the final few weeks:

Joaquin Benoit - Icon SMI

Joaquin Benoit: Benoit has been the Rays’ best reliever this season, even better than closer Rafael Soriano and his 1.74 ERA and 34 saves. Benoit is currently sporting a 1.24 ERA, an outstanding 0.62 WHIP with a 12.37 K/9 rate and 1.44 BB/9 rate over 43 2/3 innings. Over his last 14 appearances, Benoit has 12 Holds, and has given up only 9 hits and 3 runs over 14 1/3 innings with 18 K’s and only 1 walk. Benoit is an excellent grab for any league that rewards Holds and is definitely worth grabbing for any team looking for an extra push in the K’s, WHIP and ERA categories. Available in 88% of Yahoo! Leagues and 97% of ESPN Leagues, Benoit is the epitome of ‘under the radar’.

Hisanori Takahaski: After the K-Rod debacle, it appears Takahashi will get a chance to handle closing duties for the Mets for the remainder of the season. This alone makes him a must have in almost all leagues that count saves. Takahashi has been invaluable for the Mets, serving at times as a starter and a reliever. He’s been at his best as a reliever, holding opponents to a 0.206 average against (almost 100 points lower than as a starter) with an opponents OPS of 0.594 (vs. 0.821 as a starter). As a reliever, Takahashi’s K/AB rate jumps from 21.5% to 30.8%. As of Tuesday morning, Takahashi was available in 88% of Yahoo! Leagues and 94% of ESPN Leagues.

Ryan Madson: Despite missing time after breaking his toe kicking a chair, Madson has been outstanding since returning from the DL. Over 18 2/3 innings, Madson has allowed only 13 hits and 4 earned runs (1.92 ERA) while striking out 27 and walking only 3 batters. Madson has managed to grab 5 Holds and 1 win over his last 10 appearances while setting up Brad Lidge. With the Phillies fighting for the playoffs, Madson is sure to get plenty of work down the stretch, increasing his overall potential for fantasy owners. As of Tuesday morning, Madson was available in 79% of Yahoo! Leagues and 94% of ESPN Leagues.

As always, feel free to send me any questions/comments via email: draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com or hit up the message board below.

Articles, Draft Guru Hisanori Takahaski, Joaquin Benoit, Ryan Madson

DraftGuru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Be sure to check out my Phillies blog at FanHuddle.

Wandy Rodriguez has been a huge disappointment thus far in 2010 – 3-10 record, 6.09 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and a career low 6.21 K/9 (past two seasons have been over 8.4/9). There are many factors that have combined to form such a horrendous stat line but probably none more important than Rodriguez being able to locate a four seam fastball to right handed batters.

Wandy Rodriguez - Icon SMI

Over the past few seasons, Rodriguez has been solid against righties. In 2008, over 407 AB, he held righties to a 0.248 average with only 9 HR and a 2.48 K/BB. In 2009, over 618 AB, Rodriguez showed much better control with a 2.85 K/BB with a 0.264 average and 19 HR. 2010 has been a different story: 0.326 average, 6 HR and horrendous 1.23 K/BB ratio. With a 5.9 K/9 and 4.81 BB/9 and FIP of 4.87 against righties, Rodriguez has been much more hittable than in years past. Why? As is the case with most pitchers, it all comes to location, location, location. “This pitcher really needs to locate his fastball” is a common phrase when a pitcher struggles with his command. In Rodriguez’s case, nothing could be closer to the truth. In 2009, Rodriguez threw his four seam fastball 53% of the time against righties with an above league average strike rate of 65.6%. Only 16.8% of the four seamers were put into play vs. 19.5% fouled off. In 2010 however, Rodriguez is throwing four seam fastballs to righties at only a 28.2% clip, with a miserable 52.6% strike rate (league average is 64.4%). If a pitcher can’t locate his fastball, hitters aren’t going to swing and that’s exactly what is happening to Rodriguez.  The league average swing rate for righties on four seam fastballs is 44.6%; however, hitters are swinging at Rodriguez’s four seamer offerings at only a 29.5% clip, swinging and missing only 3.4% of the time. Instead of the 19.5% fouled off rate Rodriguez had last seaon, it is down to only 9.7% this season. One big factor could be the -2 inch difference in horizontal movement with his four seam fastball between 2009 and 2010. A huge factor in the horizontal movement in a four seam fastball is due to arm angle. Typically, the lower the arm angle, the more the ball moves and vice versa. With a slight change in mechanics, Rodriguez could easily add movement back to his four seamer which in turn should help in locating the pitch more effectively.

Whether due to confidence or arm angle, Rodriguez has dramatically increased the number of two seamers (sinkers) thrown to righties from only 2.1% last season to 21.4% this season.  He is locating these sinkers (63.5% strike rate), but with an above average 26.1% in-play rate (league average 21.3%) and below average swing and miss rate of 4.9% (vs. 8.42%), this change in pitch selection has not fared well for Rodriguez. It is as though Rodriguez got away from what worked last season and created a new plan for no reason. Last season, his pitching splits were heavy on the four seamer side: 53% four seamers, 33.9% cutters, 5% of change-ups and 5% sliders. In 2010, his pitch selection is much more even: 36.2% cutters, 28.2% four seamers, 21.4% two seamers, 14% change-up.  With better mechanics, hopefully Rodriguez will gain more confidence in his four seamer and throw more of his historically effective pitch.

In addition to the arm angle and pitch selection issues, Rodriguez currently has the third highest BABIP (0.354) among all qualified starters and also has the lowest LOB% (60.1%). The combination of bad luck, mechanical issues and pitch selection has all contributed to Rodriguez’s horrible start to the season. The great news is that two of the three issues (arm angle, pitch selection) can be easily modified by Rodriguez, while a regression to the mean for both his BABIP AND LOB% can be expected. Though it may be hard to do at this point, I would advise holding on to Rodriguez for the forseeable future. Manager Brad Mills indicated that Rodriguez rotation turn would not be skipped; however “there are some issues…that we’re going to address in the coming days…mechanics is one of them, and some different scenarios, too.” Barring an injury, don’t be surprised to see an improved Rodriguez the rest of the way.

(Special thanks to the Pitch F/X tool via TexasLeaguers.com)

As always, feel free to send any questions/comments via email: draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com or hit up the message board below.

Articles, Draft Guru Wandy Rodriguez

DraftGuru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Gavin Floyd entered the year as borderline Top 50 pitcher. Coming off a season in which he posted a 4.06 ERA, 2.76 BB/K and 11-11 record, he seemed to be destined for similar results with the possibility of more wins. However, thus far in 2010 Floyd has posted a 6.18 ERA, 1.63 ERA and 2-6 record. Those numbers certainly have not helped any fantasy team in 2010; however, getting Floyd now could pay big dividends in the coming months.

Gavin Floyd - Icon SMI

Even though Floyd has an ERA of 6.18, his FIP is only 4.02 – resulting in a league leading E-F rate (2.16) among all qualified pitchers.  FIP alone shows that Floyd has pitched much better than his surface statistics indicate. His above average BABIP (0.369) and 7^th lowest LOB% (62.6%) both suggest better results are on the way.  Floyd’s K/9 rate is right in line with last season (7.66 vs. 7.60) and though his walks are up a bit (3.36/9 vs. 2.75/9), his FB%, GB% and LD% are almost all right in line with last season.  Over his last 6 starts, Floyd has cut down his walks slightly (11) vs. his first 6 starts (13) and has issued more than 2 walks only 1 time since April 23 (he had 3 such games in his first 4 starts).

Another huge factor to consider for Floyd is his past performances. Last season, Floyd posted a 5.52 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in April and 6.68 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in May. Over the final 4 months, Floyd posted an ERA over 4.00 only once (had 5.06 ERA but 2.72 FIP over 16 innings in September) and did not posted a WHIP over 1.30. Floyd has posted solid outings in 3 of his last 4 starts. His BABIP of 0.457 thus far in June is surely going to decline. From June 6 to June 29 last season, Floyd had 5 starts, going 35 1/3 innings, allowing no more than 1 run in any outing with a solid 22 K:8 BB ratio. With his most recent 6 inning, 8 K, 2 walk, 1 run performance against Detroit on Tuesday, don’t be surprised if Floyd goes on another June tear, similar to last season.

Currently, Floyd is only owned in 49% of Yahoo! Leagues and 37% of ESPN leagues.  With 7+ K’s in 3 of his last 6 starts and improved control, Floyd looks destined for another strong summer performance.

As always, feel free to send any questions/comments via email: draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com or hit up the message board below.

Articles, Draft Guru Gavin Floyd

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Be sure to check out my Phillies blog on FanHuddle.com

Almost two months in to the season, Carlos Pena could be considered one of the bigger, non-injury related, disappointments. His 8 home runs thus far put him on pace for only 28; in relation, he’s hit at least 39 in two of the past three seasons (31 in 2008). Heading into 2010, everyone knew what to expect out of Pena: low average (in the 0.250 range), but big HR totals and about 100 RBI (has had 121, 102, 100 past three seasons). This year, however, Pena has lacked the power that made him a cheap source of HR. He’s been dropped to 7^th in the Rays batting order and without the power, has become waiver wire material in most leagues.  Taking a closer look, he may worth taking a chance on…

Carlos Pena - Icon SMI

First and foremost, Pena’s 28 RBI and 22 runs put him on pace for 98 RBI and 77 runs – pretty much in line with the past few seasons, so even without power, he’s contributing. However, his 0.186 average and lack of power has frustrated fantasy owners. Pena has actually cut down on his strikeout rate just a bit (31.4% vs. 34.6%, 33.9% in 2009 and 2008 respectively). Though his Flyball rate (FB%) is down slightly from 50% the past few seasons to 46.3% this season and groundball rate up from 30% to 41%, his flyball rate is actually right in line with his career average (45.8%), so there’s not much of a concern there. Pena is also swinging at more pitches than in year’s past (49.1% vs. career 45.9), but he’s also dramatically increased his contact rates on both pitches inside the strike zone (82.9% vs. 74.6% and 77% last two seasons) and outside the strike zone (55.1% vs. 39.6% and 48.7%). As you can see, Pena’s actually making more contact than in year’s past, yet has fewer results to show for it. Pena’s struggles seem to come down to two big factors:

1. First pitch strikes: This season, pitchers have thrown a first pitch strike to Pena 64.9% of the time. Over the past three seasons, that rate has been 55.1%, 58.2% and 51.8%, respectively. The book appears to be open on Pena and teams have been taking advantage. Over his career, Pena is a 0.190 hitter after an 0-1 count with a measly 0.632 OPS – this season, he’s hitting 0.089. Over Pena’s career, he’s shown a clear trend between performance and counts. He hits 0.386 on the first pitch (0.269 this season), but struggles as the count builds after a first pitch strike.  The key appears to be jumping on the next pitch. On an 0-1 count, Pena historically hits 0.341 and this season is at 0.300. If Pena gets behind in the count, this is where the damage occurs. This season alone, when Pena gets down in the count 0-2, he has 8 strikeouts in 11 AB and down 1-2 has 14 strikeouts in 20 AB. He has yet to get a hit when the count is either 0-2 or 1-2. If a pitcher gets ahead of Pena with a first pitch strike, his best chance of success is to be aggressive and go after the next strike (or anything close).
2. BABIP: BABIP has become a sexy stat for anyone look for under-performing/over-performing players as it almost always reverts back to a mean around 0.300 (give or take depending on the hitter). Thus far in 2010, Carlos Pena currently has a BABIP of 0.203, good for 6^th lowest among all qualified hitters. Even considering his rate was 0.250 last season, he was at 0.298 and 0.297 in 2008 and 2007, there is definitely going to be some kind of correction. In May alone, his BABIP is 0.143, trailing only Akinori Iwamura (0.118) and Aaron Hill (0.137). Pena has actually increased his flyball rate in May (48.1%) from 44.6% in April, but is hitting just 0.119 those flyballs. Look for Pena’s BABIP to increase dramatically over the course of the season and thus have an impact on his overall production.

Overall, Pena is nowhere near as bad as his 2010, and particularly May, stats have shown thus far. Manager Joe Maddon has indicated that Pena will be batting 6^th or 7^th in the order until his production increases. Given his abnormal BABIP rate in May, look for Pena to turn things around shortly. Also, assuming Pena becomes more aggressive after a first pitch strike, his production is sure to increase as well. If you’re looking for a cheap power source, look no further than Pena. With June around the corner and league standings starting to take shape, grabbing a player like Pena with 40 HR potential could pay off big time.

As always, feel free to send any questions/comments via email: draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com or hit up the message board below.

Articles, Draft Guru Carlos Pena

DraftGuru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

For all your Phillies information (and my take on Ryan Howard’s new contract), be sure to check out my Phillies blog at fanhuddle.com

Chad Billingsley: Under the Radar Ace

Chad Billingsley - Icon SMI

Entering 2009, Chad Billingsley was coming off a breakout 2008 season. He went 16-10 with a 3.14 ERA and averaged over a strikeout per inning (9.01 K/9) in 200 2/3 innings. This was the first season he hit 200 innings and was beginning to cement his status as the Dodgers’ ace. However, the following season did not go as well for him as he finished with a 12-11 record, 4.03 ERA. His strikeout rate dipped a bit (8.21/9) – still solid but combined with his disappointing record and ERA, he left many fantasy owners disappointed. The knock on Billingsley heading into 2010 was that he was horrible over the second half of 2009 and he was risky bet heading into the season. However, further review shows he really wasn’t that bad and is much better than most people think.

Everyone seems to completely discount Billingsley’s second half. Taking a closer look, though Billingsley struggled with his control a bit, most of the damage was done by some bad luck.

As you can see, most of the damage to Billingsley’s statistics took place in July and September. He did struggle with command in May and June, but was able to work around those issues by maintaining a healthy HR/FB %. In July, he was hit with some bad luck as his LOB % fell almost 20% to only 53.7%. Almost half of all batters who reached base against him scored.  Though Billingsley finished almost identical to the league average in this department (71% vs. 71.9%), his July value was most definitely an outlier. Teamed with that, his HR/FB% skyrocketed from 9.3% to 16.7%; however, Billingsley was very close to his career average HR/FB % (8.8% vs. 8.3%) when 2009 was all said and done. The spike in this rate in July and September could have been a reversion to the mean considering he did not allow a homer in April and only 2 in May and August. Still, having over 15% of fly balls go for homeruns will definitely have an effect on anyone’s ERA. Even missing a start in August due to a hamstring injury, Billingsley actually had a very effective month with a season-best BB/9 rate. All in all, his command was not as good as it was in the first half, but with a far below average LOB% and spikes in HR/FB%, Billingsley was actually not so much ineffective as he was unlucky in the second half.

Thus far in 2010, Billingsley has a 0.370 BABIP and 59.6% LOB%. Though his ERA sits at 5.40, he has a FIP of 3.83 suggesting he’s pitched much better than his surface numbers reveal. Billingsley was strong in his last start against the up-start Nationals, going 6 innings issuing 2 walks with 5 strikeouts, showing a glimpse of his potential. Though Billingsley may struggle with walks from time to time (he had 7 in his first two starts, but only 2 in his last two starts), his strikeout numbers remain strong (8.55 K/9). Look for him to improve going forward as he’s very good buy low candidate this early in the year.

As always, feel free to send me any questions/comments via email: draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com or hit up the message board below.

Articles, Draft Guru Chad Billingsley

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With the season only two weeks in, many fantasy owners have become frustrated with underperforming players and may be considering dropping these players for others posting hot starts. Granted, two weeks is not a strong sample size, but taking a look at some underlying statistics can help owners determine if a player is worthy of a roster spot or not this early in the season.

Buy Low:

Julio Borbon: His surface numbers are not impressive at all (0.097 average, 0.125 OBP, 1 run and 1 steal in his first 33 plate appearances). However, his strikeout rate of 19.4% is similar to his rate last season (17.8%) and his career rate (18.1%). He has not drawn a walk yet this season, but considering his career walk rate of 7.1%, the lack of walks thus far is not concerning. Borbon currently has a 0.120 BABIP, which ranks as the 5^th lowest in baseball. Borbon has seen a huge increase in his flyballs (50% compared to 27.1%), but is still hitting the ball on the ground (45.8%). Despite his numbers, Borbon has still been the Rangers’ leadoff hitter in every game he’s played and went 2 for 4 with his first steal on Wednesday. Considering his low BABIP, speed potential and confidence shown by his manager, Borbon is strong buy low candidate in the early going.

Julio Borbon - Icon SMI

Carlos Gomez: As frequent readers may recall, I did write an article touting him as a cheap steals candidate after his Opening Day performance (4-5, 1 HR, 1 steal). He then proceeded to go 1 for his next 16 before his 4 for 4 performance on Wednesday. Though there has been talk of Jim Edmonds splitting CF duties with Gomez, Gomez has started 7 of the first 10 games. The Brewers have 3 OF (Gomez, Edmonds, Corey Hart) competing for 2 starting positions. Gomez was recently dropped to 7^th in the order, in which he responded with his 4 for 4 game. There is still some uncertainty concerning Jim Edmonds’ strong early performance. However, Gomez’s 4 bunt hits, lower strikeout rate and 3 steals are encouraging signs. His OBP (.250) is still too low to hit atop the lineup, but if he can string together some strong games, he could solidify his spot in the lineup and has a strong chance to steal 30+ bags.

Jhonny Peralta: A bit of a surprising name, considering his disappointing 2009 season. However, his early numbers are more reminiscent of his 2008 numbers (23 HR, 104 RBI) than 2009 (11 HR, 57 RBI). He’s shown an increase in his FB % (2008: 36.2%, 2009: 30.6%, 2010: 47.8%) and accordingly, he has shown a decrease in his GB% (43.6%, 50.2%, 43.5%). His ISO power is also up closer to his 2008 numbers and his BABIP is among the league’s lowest (0.136). He’s also walking much more than in years past (18.4% vs. career average of 8.7%) and is showing a much better approach at the plate as evidenced by an increase in his Contact Rate (81.4% vs. career 76.5% ) and decrease in Swinging Strike rate (7.9% vs. career 10.9%). With shortstop a perennially thin position, don’t be surprised if Peralta approaches his numbers from 2008 this season and provides 2009 was a fluke.

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Articles, Draft Guru

DraftGuru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Magglio Ordonez is considered by many as one of the biggest fantasy busts from 2009. Coming off a 2008 season in which he hit 21 HR with 103 RBI, 72 runs and his usual 0.300 or greater average (0.317), Maggs hit 0.310 in 2009, but disappointed in his power production. Over 465 AB, he hit only 9 HR and totaled only 50 RBI and 54 runs.  He hit only 5 HR the first three months of the season, hitting below 0.245 in both April and June, prompting many owners to drop him outright. As his struggles continued into July (0.232 average) he was benched at times for Clete Thomas. However, Maggs started to get hot and accumulated the needed plate appearances to vest his 2010 option ($18 million). In his final two months, Ordonez batted 0.404 with a combined 4 HR, 18 RBI and 18 runs. The power still wasn’t great, but hitting 0.404 over 166 AB was certainly an encouraging sign. Taking a closer look, Ordonez’s disappointing 2009 season can be attributed to two main factors: his groundball/fly ball rates and family-related issues.

Magglio Ordonez - Icon SMI

Taking a quick glance at Ordonez’s numbers, most of his key statistics remained constant to his 2008 and career numbers. His average, OBP, K/BB% and BABIP were all in line from his previous seasons. Some may say his age (35 last season) was finally catching up to him; however, his overall performance at the plate was much better than in years past. First off, he swung at less pitches than he typically does (47.2% vs. 50.2% in 2008 and career average of 49.1%).  This increase in patience may not have led to a huge increase in walks, but it may have contributed to the increase in his overall contact rate (86.1% vs. 85.1% in 2008 and career average of 83.4%). He also decreased the rate at which he swung and missed (6.4% down from 7.2% in 2008 and 8% career). As you can see, his batting eye and overall batting approach was quite good last season. As it turns out, his power numbers were more of a reflection of an aberration in his groundball/fly ball rate.

Heading in 2009, Ordonez was coming off a 2008 season where he hit groundballs 43.6% of the time, fly balls 36.5% of the time and line-drives 20.4% of time. In 2009, his line-drive rate stayed pretty much constant (20.4%), but his groundball and fly ball rates did not. His groundball rate shot up to 51.4% and fly ball rate down to 28.1% – that’s a 7.4% increase in groundballs and 8% decrease in flyballs.  This would definitely help explain the sudden loss of power experienced by Ordonez last season. As his FB% rose and GB% declined in August and September, his HR increased (4 in 2 months vs. 5 in previous 4 months) and average also saw a huge uptick.

In addition to his struggles, unbeknownst (and appropriately so) to much of the media was that his wife Dagly was diagnosed with thyroid cancer early in the season. She needed two surgeries and mild treatment, but in August it was revealed that she was cancer free. It is likely not a coincidence that Ordonez had his best two months to close out the season after receiving this news.  In the case of Ordonez, much of media was declaring him “finished” and saying the Tigers should just eat the rest of his contract and cut him. What everyone didn’t know was all the personal turmoil his family was experiencing and the impact it had on his performance. At the end of the day, he’s human like the rest of us and a situation like he experienced would cause most of us to have difficulties in the workplace as well.

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Articles, Draft Guru Magglio Ordonez

DraftGuru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

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Carlos Gomez (owned in 6% of ESPN Leagues, 4% of Yahoo Leagues).

Carlos Gomez - Icon SMI

Once a top prospect for the Mets, Gomez struggled getting on base during his time in Minnesota, posting an OBP under 0.300 in each season, even posting a lack luster average of 0.229 last year in 315 AB. These struggles, teamed with the Twins’ need for SS and the Brewers having Alcides Escobar major league ready, made Gomez expendable, with the Twins shipping him to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy. Entering spring training, Gomez was slated to start in CF for the Brew Crew.  Over his major league career, Gomez owns a less than impressive 4.38 K/BB rate which his hindered his ability to use his main asset: his speed.  From 2006 through 2008, Gomez posted three straight seasons of at least 30 steals (41 at A; 31 combined A, AAA, majors; and 33 with the Twins) before last season.  With great speed, Gomez would in theory be a solid table setter for any club – however, his OBP teamed with his K/BB rate has severely limited his fantasy value. This far in his career, Gomez fits the statement given to guys with tremendous speed but can’t get on base: “You can’t steal first base”.

One thing that hurt Gomez last season was his overall use of the bunt. In 2008, Gomez had 33 steals, 7 HR and scored 79 runs – all decent numbers from a speed guy who posted a 0.296 OBP. The biggest thing that helped him get on base was his bunting. During this season, Gomez attempted a bunt 66 times, being successful 30 of those times for a decent bunt hit rate of 45%. That’s 30 times he was able to get on base by just laying down a bunt and letting his speed do the rest. However, in 2009 he attempted only 22 bunts, being successful only 5 times for a not-so-good bunt hit rate of 23%. It’s imperative for a player like Gomez to use the bunt to get on base, if for nothing else to use the threat of his speed possibly distract the pitcher.

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Articles, Draft Guru Carlos Gomez