Fantasy Baseball Geeks

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Every year, the Dominican and Venezuelan Winter Leagues give fantasy owners a glimpse into the regular season. Under-the-radar players often put up stellar winter stats, followed by breakout regular seasons. Taking a look at winter league stats could be the key to grabbing a late round gem unbeknownst to fellow owners.

Conor Jackson - Icon SMI

Last year, Kendry Morales (.404, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 26 games) and Nelson Cruz (.362, 8HR, 30, 27 games) had great Dominican seasons, solidifying their status as sleepers heading into the season. They both put up great numbers in ‘09, rewarding fantasy owners that noticed their strong numbers from the winter.

Here are some players who performed well this winter and have positioned themselves as potential 2010 sleepers:

Juan Francisco (Reds): Just last week, Francisco was ranked as the 48^th overall prospect by MLB.com. Francisco has put up great minor league numbers over the last 3 seasons, with an average season of 25 HR, 92 RBI in 131 games. He has been remarkably consistent, hitting between 23 and 27 HR and driving in between 90 and 93 runs per single season. The only knock on Francisco is his tremendous lack of discipline. He has struck out 399 times over the last three seasons, while drawing only 66 walks (6 strikeouts for every walk). Francisco had a brief cup of coffee with the Reds last year, hitting .429 in 21 AB, giving a glimpse into his potential.

Francisco certainly carried his strong finish with the Reds into Dominican league play. He hit .302 with 11 HR, 42 RBI, 29 runs scored in 46 games. The 41 K’s are still a worry, but Francisco did walk 13 times. He has been primarily a third baseman in the minors, but with Scott Rolen signed on for two more years, Franciso played some LF in the winter leagues. He is scheduled to get a look at LF in Spring Training and if he shows good enough discipline, he could very well find himself with the big league club. More than likely, he’ll end up at AAA playing 3B. However, given Scott Rolen’s injury history, Francisco could be in for a call-up sooner rather than later. Also, he’s only 22, so even if he doesn’t get a spot with the Reds in 2010, he is an excellent player for keeper leagues due to his great power potential.

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Articles, Draft Guru Alcides Escobar, Conor Jackson, Juan Francisco

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One of the keys of any fantasy baseball draft is to grab the players that may be undervalued by the media/ fellow league owners. Often times, players with horrible second half performances get overlooked in the next season’s draft. Sometimes these performances can be a case of endurance, age, injuries, decreased/infrequent playing time or just plain “reverting back to the mean”. This week, I want to breakdown one of the 2009 first half surprises who ultimately did not finish as strong as he started.

Edwin Jackson - Icon SMI

Edwin Jackson’s tremendous first half (7-4, 2.52 ERA) made many owners skeptical that he could keep up his torrid pace over the second half. As it turns out, those owners who sold high seemed to have made the right move. His second half struggles create a slight predicament for fantasy owners coming into 2010. Where to rank him? Based on first half performance or second half performance?  Because of his second half struggles, his overall production and improvement (13-9, 3.62 ERA, 6.77 K/9, dropping his BB/9 almost a full run to 2.94) have him slightly overlooked coming into 2010.

There’s no debating Edwin Jackson struggled in the second half (5.07 ERA, 0.290 BAA vs. 2.52 ERA, 0.219 BAA in first half). In addition to opponents hitting much better against him in the second half, he allowed 1 more walk per 9 innings (3.4 vs. 2.5) and struck out 1 fewer batter per 9 (6.5 vs. 7.2). Any time a pitcher gives up more hits, allows more walks and strikes out fewer batters, the results will not be good. However, a closer examination reveals that his overall struggles may be more concentrated than most think.  First off, being in the AL Central, he had to pitch against perennial playoff contenders such as the White Sox and Twins at least twice each year as well as the Royals and Indians.  Taking a look at the chart below, Jackson struggled against his own division in 2009, yet was very good against the rest of MLB, including against NL teams (where he will be located in 2010 as a member of the Diamondbacks rotation).

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Articles, Draft Guru Edwin Jackson, EJAX

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After a month layoff, The Hot Corner is back to provide an update of the happenings at Third Base. With just over 5 weeks to go in the regular season, check out the rankings (big shake-up, with Reynolds taking over the top spot and Figgins moving up to 2^nd) to see who you can count on to provide solid value to get you into the fantasy playoffs and beyond.

Mark Reynolds - Icon SMI

(Stats based on last 2 weeks)

5-4-3 Double Play (players who are hot and making a nice impact)

Chone Figgins, Los Angeles Angels…Figgins is continuing his great season, hitting 0.302 with 7 RBI, 7 runs, 4 steals in the past two weeks. He’s currently 2^nd in baseball in runs scored (94, Pujols has 95), 5^th in steals (37) and has thrown in 3 HR and 43 RBI to go with his 0.305 average.

Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres…Kouzmanoff has improved his average in each of the last 3 months. He’s hitting 0.378 with 1 HR, 10 RBI and 4 runs in the last two weeks, with a solid 0.303 average since the break.  He’s up to 13 RBI in 19 games this month and has established himself as a decent 3B option for the rest of the season.

Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks…Reynolds, to go with Figgins, is having an absolute monster season, on pace for 50 HR, 111 RBI, 28 steals, 108 runs and, by Reynolds’ standards, a great 0.282 average. If those numbers look familiar, that’s because they are eerily similar to numbers put up by a player you may be familiar with (Alex Rodriguez) in both 2008 and 2006. Over the past two weeks, Reynolds is hitting 0.273 with 5 HR, 7 RBI and 9 runs.

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Articles, Draft Guru Adrian Beltre, Brandon Inge, Chone Figgins, Chris Davis, David Wright, Edwin Encarnacion, Jorge Cantu, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mark Reynolds, Pedro Alvarez, Scott Rolen

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As July turns into August, most fantasy league trade deadlines are rapidly approaching. Just as much as every owner wants to grab the big name players to make a splash, it may be more prudent to trade for a player who, though on the surface appears to be struggling, could be acquired for a lesser price and still provide great value. This week, I want to highlight a few pitchers heading into the final two months that could provide a nice bang for the buck either by trade or waiver claim.

Johnny Cueto - Icon SMI

Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds: In his 6 July starts, Cueto is 1-4 with an 8.16 ERA and 25/15 K/BB. Those numbers are definitely nothing to be excited about. However, taking a closer look, this month seems to be an aberration instead of a trend. First off, in the first 3 months, he never had an ERA over 3.60. Though his ERA has increased from 2.19 in April to 3.60 in June, most fantasy owners would certainly take a guy with a 3.60 ERA anytime. His strikeout to walk ratio has been exactly 2.5 in the first three months vs. 1.67 in July. The biggest sign of his increased ERA is the result of a ridiculous 0.399 BABIP in July, currently leading the league. His numbers for July are obviously skewed by his 2/3 inning, 9 run affair vs. the Phillies. As if the league-leading BABIP was not enough, during July, Cueto has received the second least amount of Run Support per game (1.88). So the perfect storm of hard luck (highest BABIP, next to last in Run Support) has lead to the dramatic devaluation of Cueto. Due to his recent “struggles”, Cueto is definitely a great buy-low candidate heading into the final two months.

Aaron Harang, Cincinnati Reds: Another member of the Reds rotation, Harang is also plagued by high BABIP (0.364) and low Run Support (2.25/game) during the month of July. He hasn’t won a game since May 25, though he had an ERA of 3.38 with a 19/6 K/BB in June. In July, he has a solid 35/13 K/BB ratio, but posted a 6.00 ERA. Though the Reds rank next to last in the league in batting (.244), Harang can still provide nice value due to his solid K/BB percentage with an expected decline in ERA over the final two months.

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Articles, Draft Guru Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto, Livan Hernandez, Luke Hochevar

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It’s been two weeks since we last checked in on the third base position. Time to see how’s hot, how’s not and how the rankings have changed.

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(Stats based on last 2 weeks)

5-4-3 Double Play (players who are hot and making a nice impact)

Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox…After starting his big league career 0 for 13 and 2 for his first 28, Beckham is starting to live up to the hype. Over his last 41 AB, he is hitting 0.415 with 10 runs, 2 HR, 10 RBI, with an OPS of 1.099. He’s regarded as a line drive hitter with slightly better than average power, making him a decent option for fantasy owners looking for a 3B with some pop. The biggest knock on him heading into the draft was whether he had the size (6 feet, 185 lbs) to be a big league shortstop for an extended period of time. The debate seems to be over, as he’s spent all 23 games of his career thus far at 3B. Before his call-up, he was hitting a combined 0.326 with 4 HR, 25 RBI and 29 runs in 45 games between AA and AAA. As a 22 year old, he’s making an impact early and there’s no reason to think he won’t be a solid contributor for the remainder of the season - or the rest of his career for that matter.

Scott Rolen, Toronto Blue Jays…After fighting through injuries in 3 of the past 4 years, Rolen finally seems to be healthy and has really turned it on the past few weeks. Over his last 49 AB, he’s hitting 0.367 with 2 HR an 8 RBI. He’s not a great option, seeing how he’s had more than 410 AB just one time over the last 4 seasons, but he’s hitting 0.333 on the year and on pace to score 87 runs. His power is all but gone, but there are far worse options at the position.

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Articles, Draft Guru Adrian Beltre, Alex Rodriguez, Aramis Ramirez, Brandon Inge, Edwin Encarnacion, Gordon Beckham, Josh Vitters, Mike Lowell, Pedro Alvarez, Scott Rolen

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Third base, as with all other infield positions, had distinctive tiers heading into the season. There was the elite (A-Rod, Wright, Longoria), the very good (Youkilis, Ramirez, Davis), then the rest (Atkins, Huff, Jones, etc). As the 2009 season has progressed, some players have exceeded expectations (Mark Reynolds, Ryan Zimmerman, Casey Blake, Mike Lowell, Hank Blalock) while others have been either slight disappointments (A-Rod, Wright) or victims of injuries (Aramis Ramirez, Alex Gordon). Every two weeks, I’ll revisit the third base position and check in on who’s hot/cold and how my projected rankings change based on performances and/or injuries.

Mark Reynolds - Icon SMI

(stats based on last 2 weeks)

5-4-3 Double Play (players who are hot and making a nice impact)

David Wright, New York Mets…Though his power is lacking, he is hitting 0.396 with 1 HR, 6 RBI and 5 steals over his last 48 AB. He’s been a pleasant surprise on the bases (18 steals vs. 15 all of last year), but the power has been lacking (4 HR all year). With a 0.350 average, 41 runs, 39 RBI and 18 steals, he’s still a top value at 3B, but the lack of HR is disappointing for owners who drafted in the 1^st round, hoping for 30+ HR.

Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks…Given his overall impact this year (18 HR, 47 RBI, 44 runs, 13 steals and 0.271 average), he’s been arguably the most valuable 3B to this point. He’s still striking out too much (95 in 247 AB, on pace for over 200 for the second straight year), but his power is even better and if he can hit close to 0.250 for the season, most owners will be more than happy. In the past two weeks, he’s hit 5 HR with 14 RBI, 10 runs, 1 steal and 0.285 average.

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Articles, Draft Guru Alex Gordon, Aramis Ramirez, Brandon Wood, Chris Davis, David Wright, Edwin Encarnacion, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mark Reynolds, Michael Moustakas, Pedro Alvarez

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Beginning in little league, pitchers are taught many different strategies in terms of how to pitch effectively. By far, the biggest key to pitching effectively is getting a first pitch strike. By getting ahead in the count,

Kevin Slowey - Icon SMI

pitchers are able to put more pressure on the hitter and are able to mix and match pitches more effectively. The same principle applies to the big leagues. Pitchers that are able to consistently get ahead of hitters have more success and thus are more valuable to clubs and also to fantasy owners. First I want to take a look at the First Pitch Strike Percentage leaders from 2008, and then look at the league leaders thus far in 2009.

With the exception of Vazquez (who still won 12 games) and Sonnanstine, (11) all the other pitchers had either great or very good ERA’s. Wins can be heavily influenced by team play, in this case hurting Maddux even though his 4.22 ERA was below the league average.  Santana, Lee and Sonnanstine can be considered surprises based on their performances in 2008 vs. career numbers. While I only listed the Top 10, a few other pitchers with high First Pitch Strike ratios had very good 2008 numbers. Of course, CC Sabathia (63.9), Johan Santana (63.8) and Roy Halladay (63.4) ranked in the Top 20. However, Ricky Nolasco (63.6, 15 wins, 3.52) and Nick Blackburn (63.6, 11 wins, 4.05 ERA) also ranked in the Top 20. While there’s many factors that went into Nolasco’s recent demotion (his unrealistic 0.402 BABIP, an opponents batting average of 0.349, and his  increased BB/9 ratio - from 1.78 to 2.68), his inability to get ahead of hitters as he did last year could also a be factor (his FS% dropped from 63.6 to 59.9). Getting ahead of the hitter is not the end all, be all, but in fantasy baseball, as in real baseball, I’d take a pitcher who can get ahead of hitters. By getting ahead, he could limit his pitch count and pitch deeper into games, giving fantasy owners more opportunities to secure wins.

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Articles, Draft Guru Dan Haren, Gil Meche, Javier Vazquez, Johan Santana, Kevin Slowey, Koji Uehara, Ricky Nolasco, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Ubaldo Jimenez

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With 5 weeks of the season already gone, fantasy owners have started to take a deeper look at their rosters and make moves in order to either maintain their current position or try to make up ground before it is too late. As part of the revamped FantasyBaseballGeeks.com website, we’ve added a feature for fantasy owners who may be unsure of what possible moves they could/should make to improve their teams. After reviewing these requests (and Trade Reviews), there seems to be a few players that have come up very often in discussion. This week, I want to take a look at some of these players and examine if they are worthy of a roster spot and/or starting spot.

Jhonny Peralta - Icon SMI

Jhonny Peralta, SS Cleveland Indians…Coming into the year, Peralta was regarded as a very solid 2^nd tier shortstop. He was coming off arguably a career season, where he established highs in runs (104), RBI (89) and fell one HR short, with 23, off his career high of 24.  With 20+ HR in 3 of the last 4 years, he looked like a solid 20+ HR, 80 RBI, 90 run candidate. He struggled mightily in April, hitting 0.211 with 0 HR, and only 6 RBI and 9 runs in 19 games. There was no injury concern, but the 25 K’s in only 19 games raised some red flags. Further analysis shows the problem may be his swing. He was recently given two days off and it seems to have helped: In two games back from the break, he has gone 6 for 9 with 3 RBI. Before his recent two game streak, he had a Line Drive % of 16% (down 3% from his career average and down 4% from last season) and was hitting many more Ground Balls than he normally does (53.3% GB vs. career average of 46.3% and 43.6% last season). His LD% is down, GB% is up and FB% is down - resulting in easier outs for the opposition and thus lowering his average.  In the past two days however, his LD% has jumped to 17.9% and GB% down to 52.6%, a slight improvement. He’s a guy to hold onto to see how he performs in the next week to see if his recent surge is for real (my money says it’s real). He’s available in about 23% of leagues, so if you have a need for a decent MI option, he’s worth taking a chance on.

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Articles, Draft Guru Carlos Delgado, David Ortiz, Jhonny Peralta, Magglio Ordonez

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Dallas Braden - Icon SMI

April is officially in the books. There’s been one week surprises (Emilio Bonifacio), injuries to key players (Josh Hamilton, Brandon Webb) and flat out disappointments (Oliver Perez, Jhonny Peralta).  If you’ve been checking out the site on a regular basis, you have surely read some great analysis on the surprises/disappointments from the past month (If you haven’t been checking out the site, then it’s time to add it your favorites!).  Last week, I took a look at some of the best hitters of April 2008 and compared how they fared in April vs. the rest of the season. This week, I want to take a look at the ERA and Strikeout leaders from April 2008 and 2009 and see what players are primed to make an impact this year.

(Minimum 4 starts)

ERA:

*Smoltz only threw one inning the remainder of season (one start in June)

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Articles, Draft Guru Cliff Lee, Dallas Braden, Dan Haren, Edinson Volquez, Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vazquez, Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, Wandy Rodriguez, Zack Greinke

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The start of the baseball season brings fresh hope to not only fans of

Derrek Lee - Icon SMI

individual teams, but also fantasy owners. All the hours (or in some cases, days) spent on draft prep is now over and starting lineups are now in place. As the season begins, owners start analyzing players that are either on their team, other teams or current free agents. Statistics accumulated in April tend to lead owners to make certain decisions, whether justified or not. Often times, a certain player’s big April is taken with a grain of salt (after all, it’s only April and fantasy leagues are not won in one month). This week, I want to take a look at some of the league leaders for hitters in April 2008 and compare the results with their entire 2008 seasons.

As you can see, of the Top 15 OPS leaders in April 2008, only Eric Hinske, at 0.798, did not finish the year over 0.800 (Furcal only had 34 AB after April). Derrek Lee (0.328) had the biggest difference between his April numbers and overall 2008 numbers. April surprises such as Geovany Soto, Carlos Quentin, Nate McLouth and Ryan Ludwick all appeared to be the real deal over the rest of the season. Willingham missed two months (April 28-May 24) with a back injury and struggled in his return (9 HR, 35 RBI over the last 3 months). Though Hinske did not have a great 2008 (20, 60, 59, 10), it was the first season since 2002 in which he hit at least 20 HR and he put up his stats in only 381 AB.  His drop-off was considerable, but seeing how he was relegated to part-time duty even in April, it cannot be surprising.

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Articles, Draft Guru Adam Jones, Adam Lind, Brandon Inge, Derrek Lee, Nick Swisher, Travis Snider