Fantasy Baseball Geeks

UncleCharlie@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Bill James defined saber metrics as “the search for objective knowledge about baseball.” Meaning saber metrics makes an attempt to solve the analytic questions about baseball, such as “Which Mets pitcher has the greatest value to his team?” or “How does Livan Hernandez have a better ERA than Dan Haren?” Sabermetrics in the fantasy baseball community have become overly popular in recent years, but this season I have seen a substantial spike in usage by main stream sites, such as CBS and ESPN. I had always gone to Fangraphs.com to get my fix, but I always relied on CBS and ESPN to give me the basic spin on things in an eccentric manner. To be honest, the overload of articles geared around sabermetrics from ESPN and CBS is kind of annoying me, and I have come to the point where I avoid those annoying graphs CBS puts out every week. When you have a graph that takes 30 seconds to load, includes 400 dots resembling your players and regression lines that take five minutes alone to comprehend it losses its effectiveness – that’s my opinion some might find it helpful (here is an example).

Justin Masterson - Icon SMI

If I took a poll in each of my fantasy leagues, which generally consist of college friends, old baseball colleagues, and a few fantasy enthusiasts like myself, I would get a stirred reaction if I asked them to define the following terms: BsR, dERA, FIP, FIPx, ISO, WAR, WARP, BABIP, ERC, CERA, WPA. (Off the top of my head I could probably breakdown 5 of the 10 to someone, and I consider myself pretty up to speed on the sabermetrics of fantasy baseball.)

Therefore, in Part 1 of this series I plan on shedding some light on the most common terms for sabermetrics as they relate to pitchers and create a glossary for the beloved faithful of FantasyBaseballGeeks.com.

BABIP (Batting average on balls in play): It’s the success in which a batter reaches base safely on any ball in play. For pitchers, this is especially useful as it’s a good measure of luck. On average, if the ball is hit, and not hit out of the ballpark, you’re going to give up a hit around 30 percent of the time. So pitchers with high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances adjust over the course of the season.

Examples:

Leagues Luckiest Pitcher: Livan Hernandez currently boasts a ridiculous .188 BAIBP in 2010. Considering his career average is .309 he will start getting tagged pretty often and hard in the coming months meaning you should stay far away.

Leagues Unluckiest Pitcher: Justin Masterson currently boasts a bloated .411 BAIBP in 2010. ZiPS projected a BAIBP of .310 for Masterson this season meaning those balls that are sneaking through right now should start finding their way into gloves pretty soon. Masterson could be an excellent guy to pickup and enjoy the ride when his luck turns for the better.

FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching on an ERA scale): FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, even if he has a bunch of little leaguers taking the infield. You have to look at the three categories pitchers have control over and take the defense out of the equation, those are: Strikeouts, Walks, and Home Runs allowed.

Examples: Mike Pelfrey and Jonothan Niese

Mark Simon of ESPNNewYork.com did a great job breaking down the FIP of Mike Pelfrey and Jonathan Niese in this article. He indicated “Niese currently has a 3.73 FIP meaning he has given up 37 fly balls so far, but only three home runs (two coming against the Reds on Wednesday). FIP basically operates on the premise that he can maintain that kind of performance.”

“In Pelfrey’s case last season, he had an ERA of 5.03, a FIP of 4.39 and an xFIP of 4.52. Basically what that meant was that Pelfrey didn’t deserve the ERA with which he finished. FIP is believed to be a good predictor of future success, meaning that Pelfrey should expect an overall ERA drop for this year.” Which he has seen so far in early 2010, while I don’t believe he will maintain that low of an ERA it is not entirely shocking to see Pelfrey get out to the start he has in 2010.

xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): Goes a step further and looks at how often your fly balls are home runs. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of fly balls allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly (Hardball Times).

Read more…

Articles, Uncle Charlie

UncleCharlie@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Half of a year, 26 weeks, 182 days or 4,368 hours exist in a H2H fantasy baseball season and we are only at 11% completed in 2010. Yet, everyone including myself has hit the panic button on their season based on this small sample size – there is a lot of baseball left to be played ladies. The 0-3 start in my competitive CBS league, a 12-20-4 record in Andy Behrens “Roto Arcade Pro-Am,” and an 8th place start in the Geeks writer’s league has left me in hiding these passed three weeks condemning myself to my man-cave while making MLB extra innings my best/worst friend.

During this time of isolation I have taken on many new habits. I now curse out-loud to empty rooms, pound seat cushions, shove down laptop screens after every Prince Fielder strike-out, and my favorite, sending the patent “Whelp… I lost” text message to opponents as early as Tuesday.

Jimmy Rollins - Icon SMI

I reached the point where I would rather enjoy watching Adam Lambert guest host “The Hills after Show” than stomach another live at-bat from Chris Coghlan or Carlos Lee. I do not know what has been worse the passed three weeks? Tuning in live to watch those two ground out 40 times or getting amped up to see Neftali Feliz warming up only to realize Ron Washington is yet again deciding to use him in a Non-Save situation. I mean honestly is he not labeled your closer for a reason? Why do you continue to send him out in games where you are up four runs knowing you do not expect to use him the next day? Nothing is more frustrating than watching your closer pitch to the bottom of the order in the 9th during a non-save situation only to see Darren O’Day get the nod the day after in a save situation. We saw what kind of damage Feliz can do after pitching in back-to-back games last night, so let’s have Washington stick to him pitching in save situations until he can prove he has that mastered before we start using him like Brian Wilson or Jonathon Broxton.

Do I sound bitter? Nah, if you want to hear me be bitter ask me about Jimmy Rollins pulling a calf muscle ten minutes before lineups lock during pre-game warm-ups! How does that happen? That would be like you and your boys planning a trip to Vegas a year ahead of time and when you land you get out and roll your ankle on a pile of Sky-Mall catalogs – sidelining you from walking the whole trip. To put it in sports terms, it would be like Michael Phelps pulling a deltoid putting on his Speedo in the locker room.

To make a long story short I have been able to consume a lot of baseball the passed three weeks, and I feel I have a pretty keen sense on which players are the real deal and which players look as lost as Tim Tebow will be when he sees Josh McDaniel’s playbook.

So let’s play a little Hired, Fired and just Bothered…

Hire – I am locking some of these guys up for the long haul, some for spot starts, and some to block other owners.

•        C.J. Wilson (69% Owned) – The converted RP turned SP is giving the Ryan Dempster owners of 08’ something to get excited about. He is ranked 5th overall in the AL with a 1.75 ERA. The best part… he has done it against three prolific offenses NY, TOR, BOS and the fourth being the White Sox. Let’s hope he can bring his strikeouts back up after posting 9K in his first seven IP, but only 12K in his last 18 IP. He should be owned in all mixed leagues after posting four quality starts in a row, after you combine the offense he plays for he becomes a must own SP at the moment.

•        Franklin Gutierrez (82% Owned) – Finally removed from the shadow of Grady Sizemore in Cleveland, Gutierrez has really taken off in Seattle. He is entering his prime years at age 27, and looks ready to breakout this season. He lost a 13 game hit streak on April 14 dating back to last season and he currently leads the team in hits and just recently got bumped from the top 5 in AL batting average. I think he has legit 20-20 potential, and a fair projection for 2010 would have him finishing a top 20 outfielder. He could be this year’s Shin-Soo Choo with a little less pop. Pick him up in the other 15%-20% of leagues he is not currently owned in.

•        Alberto Callaspo (53% Owned) – Martin Prado 2.0? Flexible position eligibility – Check. Low K’s – Check. Great BA – Check. Good RBI Opportunities – Check. Mediocre Power and Speed – Check.

Callaspo ended with a very solid yet underrated clip in 2009: .300 BA, 11 HR, 80 R, 74 RBI, 2 SB, 52 BB – 51 KO which placed him in the same range as Placido Polanco and Jose Lopez last year. He turns 27 this year and the Royals offense does not look like it is slowing down anytime soon. The only thing that concerned me with Callaspo to start the year was his playing time, but that seems to be an after thought as they have even mentioned moving him to 3B for good and sending the struggling Alex Gordon back to the minors to find his stroke.  Callaspo is on pace for a .292, 25 HR, 93 RBI, 68 R, 42 BB – 50 KO season – the HR will definitely go down to the range of 10-15, but it is not out of the question for him to drive in close to 90 runs this year if he remains slotted behind Billy Butler and Jose Guillen in the lineup. If you are searching for a replacement for Brian Roberts or are fed up with the slow start of Gordon Beckham use Callaspo as a potential stop-gap who might just end up finishing the season as your starter.

•        Bret Cecil (11% Owned) – Why the Blue Jays started this guy in the minors to begin the season is beyond me. Cecil posted a 3.38 Grapefruit League ERA this spring and the last start of his spring was against the Phillies where he struck out Ryan Howard three times en route to a strong six inning performance. But even that start made him a victim of the numbers game in Toronto. Now after an injury to Brian Tallet he finally gets his chance in the rotation and he looked good against the Rays last Friday. In that start Cecil struck out 8 Rays and looked dominant at times. He would have had a much better line if he did not make a mistake to Gabe Kapler in the 7th. Regardless, Cecil will give you solid strikeout numbers (6.93 K/9 MLB Career) and a low-to-mid 4.00 ERA. I would snag Cecil in deeper leagues and play the matchups with this solid lefty. He faces the Red Sox today which is another tough AL East test for Cecil, but if he comes out on top you may have to act fast.

Potential Candidates: Ian Kennedy, Barry Zito, Ike Davis, Marlon Byrd
Getting ready to apply: Alfredo Simon, Carlos Villueneva, Jake Arrieta, Eric Young Jr.

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Articles, Uncle Charlie

Follow Uncle Charlie on Twitter – http://twitter.com/fbgeeks as he scouts and offers live play-by-play on a starting pitcher’s performance every week. Looking beyond the box score allows fantasy players to gain insight on a pitchers performance as the game unfolds.

This week I will be watching and following Ian Kennedy as he makes his first start for his new team the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday, April 7^th against Kevin Correia and the San Diego Padres.

Please submit requests or suggestions of pitchers you would like to hear about each week to UncleCharlie@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Articles, Uncle Charlie Ian Kennedy, Kevin Correia

UncleCharlie@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Check out the results and recap of Uncle Charlie’s draft over at Yahoo in the Roto Arcade league.  Please leave your thoughts in the comments box on how you think the team looks.

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arcade/post/The-Roto-Arcade-Pro-Am-Year-Two?urn=fantasy,231601

Articles, Uncle Charlie

UncleCharlie@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

The St. Louis Cardinals are very excited about their once prized teenage prospect Jaime Garcia. Native to Mexico, Garcia almost opted to stay and play his professional ball there, but area scout Joe Almaraz convinced Garcia to sign with St. Louis as a 22nd-round pick in 2005.

Cardinals Lineup Card - Icon SMI

If it were not for injuries Garcia would have already been on most people’s radar. He held his own as 19-year old in 2006 at the single A level throwing 155 innings and posting a 3.38 ERA with a nice 131/34 K/BB ratio. He entered 2007 as one of the best left-handed pitching prospects in the game ranking #70 overall by Baseball America, and the #2 overall prospect in the Cardinals system behind Colby Rasmus.

Garcia is a perfect fit for the Cardinals rotation because of his ability induce ground balls at an amazing clip.

Here are his ground ball rates, courtesy of Firstinning.com, throughout the Cardinals system.

2006: A ball (78 IP) – 65%. A+ (77 IP) – 62%

2007: AA (103 IP) – 56%

2008: AA (35 IP) – 62%. AAA (71 IP) – 55%. MLB (16 IP)- 63%

2009: Rookie (4 IP)- 85%. A+ (13 IP) – 71%. AAA (21 IP) – 55%

To put those numbers into perspective here are the top five ground ball percentages for 2009 MLB pitchers:

1. Joel Piniero- 60.5%

2. Derek Lowe- 56.3%

3. Jason Marquis- 55.6%

4. Chris Carpenter- 55%

5. Rick Porcello- 54.2%

Read more…

Articles, Uncle Charlie Jaime Garcia

UncleCharlie@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Tiers based on Head-to-Head Points

Conor Jackson - Icon SMI

1B – 1 Point

2B – 2 Points

3B – 3 Points

HR – 4 Points

RBI – 1 Point

R – 1 Point

K – (1 Point)

BB – 1 Point

*Note: Rankings do not include those that will gain OF eligibility.

*Players in Bold are predicted Breakouts by Uncle Charlie at the position.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to unclecharlie@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Articles, Uncle Charlie

UncleCharlie@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Tiers based on Head-to-Head Points

Ian Stewart - Icon SMI

1B – 1 Point

2B – 2 Points

3B – 3 Points

HR – 4 Points

RBI – 1 Point

R – 1 Point

K – (1 Point)

BB – 1 Point

*Note: Rankings do not include those that will gain OF eligibility.

*Players in Bold are predicted Breakouts by Uncle Charlie at the position.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to unclecharlie@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Articles, Uncle Charlie

UncleCharlie@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Tiers based on Head-to-Head Points

Felix Hernandez - Icon SMI

1B – 1 Point

2B – 2 Points

3B – 3 Points

HR – 4 Points

RBI – 1 Point

R – 1 Point

K – (1 Point)

BB – 1 Point

*Note: Rankings do not include those that will gain SP eligibility.

*Bold Italic: Uncle Charlie’s Breakout Guys

Tier 1: Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke, CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander

What’s up with that?

You can debate Lincecum being drafted in the first round all you want in Roto leagues; but, in H2H points he is a lock for a top 5 pick. You can’t go wrong taking any of these high strikeout guys, but I think this could be the year King Felix finally takes away his crown from the Alanis Morissette look-a-like (This Picture Seriously Trips Me Out) Tim Lincecum.

Tier 2: Jon Lester, Dan Haren, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Josh Beckett, Yovani Gallardo, Josh Johnson, Tommy Hanson, Jake Peavy , Cole Hamels, Johan Santana, Matt Cain, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ricky Nolasco, Javier Vazquez, Roy Oswalt, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Matt Garza, John Lackey, Wandy Rodriguez

What’s up with that?

In the second tier there is more risk involved than the first because you have to use a pick in the first 10 rounds; but, the rewards can be bountiful. Just ask the guys who drafted the likes of Zack Greinke, Adam Wainwright, Javier Vazquez, and Ubaldo Jimenez from this tier last year. In contrast those owners who drafted A.J. Burnett, Carlos Zambrano, Roy Oswalt, Scott Kazmir or Ervin Santana from this tier last year probably have these players in their “Tier 11″ this preseason; making sure they get the upper-hand in a love/hate relationship.

Look for Jon Lester, Yovani Gallardo, Tommy Hanson, Cole Hamels and Clayton Kershaw to push the envelope of Tier 1 status this year. While Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Javier Vazquez, John Lackey, Wandy Rodriguez and Cliff Lee might be the outcasts for Tier 2 come next season.

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Articles, Uncle Charlie

UncleCharlie@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Let me begin by saying our commissioner Double Down either is a very brilliant man for scheduling our draft on the opening night of the NCAA tournament (strategy move?) or completely oblivious to the fact.  For me and I’m sure the majority of our league it made this draft pretty tough; but, it did give an advantage to those who were not fans of the tournament.  To be fair I’m sure I benefited just as much as everyone else from the distraction the Ohio v. Georgetown upset caused on the fellow geeks.

Joe Mauer - Icon SMI

For the last four-to-five years I have only played in H2H points leagues — with last years geeks league being the only exception. It was my first Roto league in over five years and I ended up finishing in 6^th place, which I considered a strong moral victory. The draft strategy involved with Roto leagues is a whole new ball-game compared to Points leagues. In points leagues I generally look to fill holes in my team by looking for the unheralded star who gets no publicity but always outperforms his draft position. Good examples of this would be Placido Polanco, Chris Coghlan, Orlando Cabrera, Ryan Theriot, Todd Helton, Derek Lowe and the list goes on. When it comes to Roto leagues these players have little to no value because they don’t really excel in one specific category.

This year my draft strategy consisted of targeting well rounded offensive players and waiting till the later rounds to draft starting pitchers and closers with upside.

Overall, I was very impressed with the team I ended up with. I felt it was one of the strongest teams and one of the best drafts I have ever had to be honest – especially considering the talent of the other owners in the league.

Then again I think I make a better Filet than Bobby Flay so I could be biased in my opinions. I’d love to hear everyone else’s opinion on my team and draft so feel free to provide feedback below.

Rounds  1 & 2: I ended up with the 7^th pick and wanted Braun, but knew there would be a slim chance of that happening.  Once Braun went off the board at five I began targeting Mauer.  In a two catcher league Mauer gives me 4 out of 5 categories from the weakest position. I debated Kinsler and Matt Holliday for a while before siding with Holliday. Last year I waited on OF and got burned trying to fill 5 OF spots so I decided to go with the AVG and power of Holliday while giving up the extra steals Kinsler would have provided.

Picks of Interest: Draft Guru – Victor Martinez & Son of Zim – Brian McCann. I don’t see these two putting up numbers that close to Mauer so a second round pick is a bit risky to me.

Read more…

Articles, Uncle Charlie

UncleCharlie@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

At 24 years old standing at 5’10/190 pounds, Kris Medlen was literally overshadowed by fellow rookie Tommy Hanson (6’6/220 pounds) last season in Atlanta. The hype every news outlet gave Hanson allowed Medlen to fly under the radar of fantasy players – thank you for that Tommy Boy.

Kris Medlen - Icon SMI

Medlen should have been receiving the same level of hype Hanson was getting. After all he boasts an incredible strikeout ratio of 10.4 strikeouts per 9 innings over his minor league career, including a total of 263 strikeouts over 227 innings pitched. Medlen throws three pitches, a low-90′s fastball, a high-70′s curve ball, and a plus low-80′s change-up. In his lone season in the MLB Medlen has faced 82 batters as a starter. He walked 11 of those batters in the 18 innings he threw last season which can probably be chalked up to nerves considering in the 49 innings he threw as a reliever he sported a nice 53-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The abnormal thing about the right-handed Medlen is he actually performs better against left-handed batters as opposed to right-handed batters. In 2009 left-handers hit only .183 off of him as opposed to right-handers, who hit .328. If history rights itself and he finds a new out pitch to sit those right handers down we could be looking at a dominant front line starter or future closer.

The only issue is Medlen spent most of his time in the bullpen last season in middle relief and figures to start the season in that role again for the bullpen depleted Braves. The bullpen is where most experts suspect he belongs. When you consider the low mileage on his arm (under 300 total innings) and his short stature you would expect him to wear down over a 200 inning season as a starter. When you factor in the elite capability he has to get left-handed hitters out, you can write bullpen specialist all over him.

Realistically, with the first 4 starting spots locked up by Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson; Medlen needs an injury or a trade to free up a rotation spot. However, if he does get a chance to start or close this season don’t hesitate in gobbling him up off the waiver-wire.

Articles, Uncle Charlie Kris Medlen