Fantasy Baseball Geeks

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Three Up

J.J. Putz, RP- With closer Bobby Jenks suffering from lower back problems, Putz will be in line for some immediate save opportunities. He has a sub 2 ERA, a WHIP under 1 and is sporting a 10K/9IP mark. He’s available in about 90 percent of ESPN leagues and is a must add for those in dire need of saves.

J.J. Putz - Icon SMI

J.P. Arencibia, C- Everyone knows about his two bombs in his first big league game but he slugged .639 in 95 AAA games this year. If you lost Carlos Santana or Russell Martin to injury recently, you shouldn’t lose much ground with Arencibia. He’s a solid player and a good prospect but he’s not elite catcher material like some believe. I’d still take Wieters over Arencibia the rest of this year for sure. Either way, J.P. allows you to absorb a recent catching injury or can be used as trade bait if your deadline hasn’t passed yet.

Jeremy Hellickson, SP- He’s getting another start Tuesday night against Detroit after a 7 IP, 2 ER win against Minnesota last week. His stuff can be found where serious meets nasty. Yea, he’s that good. He has plus command, a plus change and good not great velocity. A must add in every fantasy format because of the recent injuries to the Tampa pitching staff.

Three Down

Domonic Brown, OF- I thought he’d be getting more playing time but he just isn’t. Why? He’s hitting just.091 against lefties and that’s just trash for such a promising prospect. Obviously in keeper leagues he’s still going to be great for you in the long run, but he needs more big league ABs, it’s just that simple.

Jaime Garcia, SP- Everyone loves his 2.53 ERA but a few people out there including myself think he has an innings limit. Garcia’s ERA minus FIP is -.81 which is 13^th among all MLB pitchers, so expect his ERA to go up some. He had Tommy John surgery in 2008 and is going into uncharted territory in regards to his innings pitched. Like Strasburg, Latos and Hughes, be mindful that he may not be there for you when you need him.

John Axford, RP- The Brewers want Trevor Hoffman to get to 600 career saves and that means less saves opportunities for Axford. If you’re an Axford owner consider getting saves from Joel Hanrahan or J.J. Putz(at least for now).

Articles, The Poet Domonic Brown, J.J. Putz, J.P. Arencibia, Jaime Garcia, Jeremy Hellickson, John Axford

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In keeper leagues, I would wait for Adam Jones to go on a hot streak and sell him with another lower tier player for Colby Rasmus or Carlos Gonzalez. He’s walking at a 2.9% clip, really? His BA and BABIP match up well this year to his career numbers and he definitely seems to be a career .270-.280 hitter and a 20-28 HR a year guy. Perhaps what is most alarming are his speed numbers. He has stolen 10 bags each of the last two years while never playing in more than 132 games. This year in 90 games he only has 3 SB and an already career high 5 CS. A lot of his hype can be attributed to his defensive prowess and use that hype and a hot streak to get Colby or CarGo. Don’t get me wrong, I love Adam Jones but this is the smart play here.

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I have always loved Yunel Escobar and will forget his dreadful .248 BA this year. He’s a shortstop with 20 HR potential and is a lifetime .290 plus hitter. His K rate is actually down a bit this year over his career average and his BB rate is up from his career average. Part of the poor start can be attributed to a BABIP that is 45 points lower than his career average. I fully expect this 27 year old Cuban to start producing like the top 20 fantasy shortstop that he is. I would buy low on this guy in keeper leagues and enjoy his bright future.

I really hoped you haven’t picked up Corey Patterson. I mean come on, he’s Corey Patterson. He may be batting .279 but his BABIP is up over 50 points from his career average. His 16 steals in just 52 games is nice but he’s suffering from a bruised heel right now and if his speed is in question he has no value. Drew Stubbs is only owned in 30% of ESPN leagues and he has 13 bombs with 17 swipes and will give you the same BA as Patterson. If you need to go a little deeper, I really like Jose Tabata from what I’ve seen thus far and he’s only owned in 0.6% of ESPN leagues. We may not know his real age like Miggy Tejada, but the “21” year old has 9 SB in 32 games with the Pirates. His walk rate is at 10% and I like that from a rookie. His .269 average is well… average, but his BABIP has plenty of room for improvement at .292. His playing time shouldn’t be in question as his defense is solid.

Articles, The Poet Adam Jones, Corey Patterson, jose tabata, Yunel Escobar

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I may not be an Aaron Hill fan but this is the best time to get him on the cheap. People may look at his poor BA (.192) and think about dumping him but you would be dead wrong. Hill’s BABIP is the lowest in MLB and over 100 points below his seven year career average. Another positive sign is his walk rate of 10.6% this year is up 5% from last year so he’s not completely pressing at the plate, although he’s swinging at 7% more of pitches outside the strike zone from his career

Miguel Tejada - Icon SMI

average. Do not be mistaken, Aaron Hill is still a top 7 second baseman no matter what anyone tells you. Expect 12 to 15 bombs and a .270 BA the rest of the way.

I’m not a Miguel Tejada fan either but his “power” or should I say pop will surface soon. Miggy only has 4 jacks on the year with a .273 BA but he does qualify at shortstop and that’s where you have to play him. His BABIP is down and he is struggling a bit with fastballs, but I must admit the “36” year old still has some gas left in the tank. Miggy is capable of 10 homers and a BA that could flirt with .300 the rest of the way and you have to love that potential at shortstop.

For those who let go of Jake Peavy shame on you. I know he isn’t going to produce where you drafted him but he isn’t worth a straight up roster drop. His ERA minus FIP is 1.15, good for 6^th among all ML “unlucky” starters. I understand his K’s are down but his biggest problem this year is giving up the longball (1.3/9 IP). His velocity is there, his walks are down but he’s just not missing as many bats this year (7.9% vs. 11.4% career). All in all Peavy has been a mixed bag this year but he still has value with 7.5K/9, a 1.33 WHIP and plenty of time left to bring down a 11.9HR/FB rate that is 2% above his career average.

Articles, The Poet Aaron Hill, Jake Peavy, Miguel Tejada

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I know Ubaldo Jimenez has 11 wins in 12 starts, but you may want to consider selling the ace while his value is still crazy high. Ubaldo’s ERA minus FIP is third best among major league starters and is in the “Lucky” Livan Hernandez

Ubaldo Jimenez - Icon SMI

range. His LOB% is 92.4%, beating out “Lucky” Livan for best in the bigs. Let’s say you have a huge hole at second base and you could get Robinson Cano and Cliff Lee in return for Ubaldo, you have to take that trade when considering Ubaldo will only slightly outperform Lee the rest of the year. Don’t get me wrong I love me some Ubaldo Jimenez, but fantasy baseball is about depth, intelligence and team quality not just one player. In one of my leagues I traded Ubaldo and Casey Blake for Ryan Zimmerman, Jon Lester and Ricky Romero. Some people fall in love with a guy that will ultimately be the undoing of their team. If you put him on the trading block you may come down with an offer you can’t refuse, but you have to put him on the block first. I know it sounds crazy to trade a sub-1 ERA, sub-1 WHIP pitcher, but fantasy baseball is about winning and it won’t hurt to see some offers. If you take emotion out of the equation and look at his LOB%, his ERA minus FIP and the fact that his K/9 numbers are down from last year, you might change your mind about dealing Ubaldo.

Articles, The Poet Ubaldo Jimenez

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Pick Up

Everth Cabrera, SS, Owned 29.5% ESPN- He is battling hamstring issues again and he may return to the DL, but he’s stolen 7 bases without reaching 100 ABs yet while walking 6% less than last year (4.6). His BABIP is 40 points lower than his career average so he’s not going to kill you in AVG like he has thus far, .212. If he gets healthy all signs point to elite speed numbers. I have only four infielders stealing 35 or more bases this year, Andrus, Reyes, Figgins and Everth (Wright is a wildcard). Everth can easily get to 35 this year, even if he spends more time on the DL. I think people forget his minor league numbers from 2008 in single A, 73 swipes in 121 games. I don’t care if that’s little league, that’s a ton of steals. If you can deal with his AVG and RBI totals he will give you a jolt in steals that you just can’t get from infielders in fantasy baseball these days. As always, monitor his injury status.

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Jose Lopez, 2B/3B, Owned 53.3% ESPN- Although I’ve never been high on Lopez it’s the perfect time to pick him up in 12 team or larger leagues. You have to love the multi position eligibility right off the bat. You also have to love that he’s played in at least 149 games over the last four years. Also take notice of his 3 steals thus far (he had 3 all of last year), if Seattle continues to struggle putting runs up it wouldn’t surprise me if he stole 5 more by years end. Obviously the power numbers aren’t there, 1 HR, but he’s averaged 17.6 HR over the last three years. The power will come, but fantasy players have difficulty being patient. His BABIP is nearly 40 points lower than his career average so there really is no reason to be concerned here. He can easily hit .275 with at least 10-13 bombs the rest of the way, he’s stealing more bases, he stays healthy, he qualifies at multiple positions and nearly half of owners have left him for dead, what’s not to love about Jose Lopez right now?

Pass On

David Freese, 3B, Owned 63.4% ESPN- Where do I start with Freese. He has no speed to speak of and he most likely won’t reach double digit homers this year. His BABIP is an unsustainable .390, which is good for fourth best in MLB. I just can’t see him hitting .280 the rest of the way and his isolated power is in the Alexei Ramirez/Yuniesky Betancourt vicinity. He can’t handle anyone’s changeup right now and he just isn’t worth your time.

Starlin Castro, SS, Owned 80% ESPN- It is beyond me how we buy into hype. Castro is solid and I love his glove and he has some value, but he doesn’t have as much value as Alcides Escobar who is owned at a 42.2% clip. Alcides has slightly more power and has more speed. The Brewers are doing a horrible job of bringing him along, hitting him 8^th in the order with the pitcher protecting this rookie. Also, why have the Brewers only given him the green light twice (1 SB, 1 CS)? The one advantage for Castro is he has been seeing the top of his order and may get more R and RBI opportunities. I’ll have to compare these two shortstops later, but the fact that Castro is owned more than Orlando Cabrera is beyond me, BEYOND ME. To everyone who has been hurt by the Jimmy Rollins, Asdrubal Cabrera injuries, Orlando Cabrera is only owned at a 57.3% clip.

Articles, The Poet David Freese, Everth Cabrera, Jose Lopez, Starlin Castro

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Neftali Feliz, Vs. Righties .656 SLG against- Righties are mashing Feliz right now and it’s the root of his inconsistency thus far. He was absolutely dominant versus righties last year with a .085 SLG against. His 4.15 ERA this year is far from ideal, but you’ve got to love that he’s only walked 3 in over 17 IP. I really don’t quite know what to make of Feliz, his velocity and command are great, but he has struggled with his curveball and he’s just not getting ground balls like last year (38% 2009 vs. 22% 2010). I can see Feliz struggling throughout the season so if you can’t handle his inconsistency you may want to trade for a more reliable closer.

Matt Kemp, 5 SB, 7 CS- Matt Kemp isn’t this bad of a base stealer, but he won’t be getting the green light if he can’t swipe at his career average of 74%. If you drafted Kemp expecting a third consecutive 34 plus steal season it’s not going to happen. His SB total should fall in the 20 range which will be a disappointment. Disregarding batting order position, what this trend reminds me of is when Hanley started stealing less to drive in more runs in 2008, which is what will happen to Kemp as he settles into a 27-30 HR and 22-24 SB guy, much like Hanley.

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Asdrubal Cabrera, 1 SB, 2 CS- This doesn’t surprise me if you’ve read anything I’ve written on Asdrubal. I remember being attacked for my belief that I didn’t think he was going to steal double digit bags because someone read that James and Shandler had him stealing nearly 20 bags. While he still may steal 10 or so bags, this is why you have to form opinions and projections for yourself, otherwise you’ll end up being an average fantasy baseball player. Speaking of stupid projections, hey ESPN, how’s that Scott Sizemore 16 HR, .281 AVG, 10 SB projection treating you (1 HR, .225 AVG, 0 SB)?

Livan Hernandez, .188 BABIP, 98.9 LOB%- It’s time to trade Livan for anything and everything. He is the luckiest pitcher I’ve seen in quite some time and he’s doing it with a fastball averaging 84.5 MPH. His career BABIP against is .309 and his career LOB% is 72.3. If he’s on your squad there cannot be a “when he cools down I’ll cut him,” no, he is due to get rocked very soon and very often. Livan is a must trade right now.

Todd Helton, .040 ISO- Julio Borbon, Cameron Maybin and Michael Bourn have a higher isolated power than Todd Helton. There really isn’t much else to say. It’s time to package this guy in a trade as a throw in; he has very little value and none as a first baseman. He’s striking out at a career high pace and he’s hitting just .219 off righties, it’s time to dump.

Articles, The Poet Asdrubal Cabrera, Livan Hernandez, Matt Kemp, Neftali Feliz, Todd Helton

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Peanut butter and jelly, Brett Favre and ESPN, Tiger and waitresses with cakes of makeup, Rickie Weeks and the Disabled List. With some things in life you can’t have one without the other. Come on, you know it’s coming, Rickie is going down soon and all this post hype sleep talk will go with him. Four bombs with two steals is solid, but a .250 BA with a BABIP nearly 30 points higher than his career average is horrible. His K% is up 5% above his career average, but those aren’t the most telling stats. In his previous six major league seasons he doesn’t have one 500 AB year. Rickie gets hurt every year, Rickie doesn’t win fantasy leagues for you. It’s time to sell Rickie before he ruins your squad. I wish there was a website with a timer that counts how many games Rickie has played in without going on the DL, we need that.

Rickie Weeks - Icon SMI

I think Johan Santana may have been tased before his last start in Philly for impersonating a major league pitcher. That was a big league beat down, but that one start isn’t as concerning as his 2010 totals are. His fastball velocity is down more than 2 MPH from his career average and his slider velocity is down almost as much. That’s not good when you’re a three pitch pitcher. His K/9 numbers are his lowest since 2001 and his BB/9 is his highest since 2002. Perhaps the biggest indicator of his struggles thus far is his swinging strike percentage is just 9%, his career average is 13.3% and it was 11.3% last year. He’s not the same Johan and it’s time to dump this guy off to the nearest Met fan in your league.

Double Down and I have been all over Austin Jackson and his BABIP, .524. He’s also striking out at nearly a 30% clip. Here’s a perfect example of when to strike while the iron is hot and steal a struggling star from someone for Jackson. Don’t get me wrong, he will steal up to 20 bags and score tons of runs if he continues to lead off, but his BA will kill you going forward. His lead off spot, his value and his hype won’t gain any more value so it’s time to sell high.

Articles, The Poet Austin Jackson, Johan Santana, Rickie Weeks

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It’s time to add Eric Young Jr. to your fantasy squad before it’s too late. He’s owned in less than 1% of ESPN leagues and that number will soar over the next week or two. Really, where else is there a 40 plus steal guy available in free agency? I am of the belief he will make it impossible for the Rockies to send him back down. Thus far in three games he’s 4-6 with 3 runs and a steal. When Jim Tracy wakes up and replaces Dexter Fowler (.370 SLG) with CarGo (.507 SLG) in the 2-spot, EY2 and his run totals are potentially elite if he sticks at the lead off spot. If you’re not familiar with Young, he stole 58 bags last year in AAA and 46 bags in 2008 in AA. He has struggled this year (.215 BA ST, .228 BA AAA) but all that doesn’t matter now; he just has to get on base consistently at the big league level. If you need the steals he must be inserted into your fantasy lineup immediately. However, if you find yourself with a solid second baseman and/or middle infield pick him up now and let him sit on your bench. If you still have no need for him in a few weeks or further down the road, wouldn’t he make great trade bait? His speed potential is too good to pass up and whether you start him or not, he’s a good bet to be a valuable commodity in any league sooner than later.

Articles, The Poet Eric Young Jr.

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You might look at Austin Jackson and his .311 BA, 10 R, 3 SB and think you just stole him in your draft. You would be wrong. The two red flags are his BABIP is .500 and he’s striking out at a 37% clip through 14 games. These aren’t indicators of a guy that will be leading off for the Tigers in a month or two, but Detroit doesn’t have anything better than him right now so they’ll ride his hot steak. By the end of the season I fully expect Jackson’s BA to be in the neighborhood of .250. If you can deal with the low BA and a possible batting order change then keep him, if not…sell high. The kid has a bright future and a great glove, but the stats don’t lie.

Is Jason Bay pressing at the plate or what? You might say “Well he’s only batting .241, it’s not that bad.” He has 3 RBI hitting cleanup, he’s slugging .315 and that is with a BABIP at .406, up 70 points over his career average. The underlying concern here is his 40% K rate, up 13% from his career average. This is a guy that needs Beltran to come back and relieve some of that pressure so he can slide into that 5 slot in the order and be comfortable.

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Nyjer Morgan is going to steal some bases this year, key word base. He has already walked 8 times in 52 AB while cutting down on the strikeouts, 4. His BABIP is 80 points lower than his career average so expect him to be on base more often in the future. You’ve got to love that he’s walking more, striking out less and still getting on base (.371) above his career average (.363) despite a very poor BABIP. With 4 steals so far, 50 is a possibility.

David Wright already has 6 SB and he will steal 40 this year, that’s right, 40. His BB% is up 15% over his career average of 11.6%, he’ll be on first base a lot this year. Other areas of his game have been a mixed bag- strikeouts up, BABIP down, ISO up. 25 HR, 40 SB with a .300 BA could happen this year and by a third baseman. Either way Wright is well on his way to being a top 6 pick next year.

Articles, The Poet Austin Jackson, David Wright, Jason Bay, Nyjer Morgan

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Kevin Correia, Owned 2.6% ESPN- In three starts this year Correia already has 2 wins and has K’d 17 in 17.1 IP with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. Last year was really the turning point for Correia, he started throwing his fastball back at his career high of 91 MPH and locating it better than ever. He also started throwing his slider at a career high velocity of 85.3 MPH and at a career high frequency of 30.2%. You would think a 2009 season of 142 strikeouts, a 1.30 WHIP and a sub 4 ERA would bring some fantasy attention, but it hasn’t quite yet, until now.

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Jaime Garcia, Owned 3.7% ESPN- Is Dave Duncan a genius or what? Garcia seems to be fully recovered from Tommy John at this point and is back to his ground ball ways. He has an impressive sinking fastball, over 60% GB rate for his minor league career. I know it’s only two starts, but a sub 1.0 ERA and WHIP is impressive. Throughout his time in the minors his K/9 numbers have been there along with the low WHIP and high GB rate, so this shouldn’t come as a complete surprise. You can bark about his BABIP and his LOB% all you want, yes his numbers will inflate, but I trust that he is in the right situation with the right pitching coach with the right stuff to maintain a low WHIP; his minor league numbers indicate that. And really that’s all you want from a guy at the back end of your fantasy staff, a guy who won’t blow up your ratios.

Luke Hochevar, Owned 1.3% ESPN- Yes, I’m writing about Luke again. Three starts, 2 wins, a 2.89 ERA, a fastball that is nearly averaging 94 MPH (up 2.4 MPH from career average) and a sick, sick slide piece. His K’s are down, but he’s changed his approach on the mound, he’s not afraid of pitching to contact anymore. By the end of the season I fully expect Hochevar to have at least 13 wins and a sub 4 ERA. If he can get his curveball going, look out.

Gio Gonzalez, Owned 1.1% ESPN- Gio has a two start week, one of them against the Yankees. We will know more about Gio on Tuesday night, but right now I am not endorsing Gio, I just want you to monitor his starts. He is a strikeout machine (10.3K/9 minors-9.6K/9 MLB) and for that reason alone he has to be on your radar, but he has been known to give up the long ball. He won’t help your WHIP out, but if you have someone to offset that then you have to consider Gio. I think it’s fair to say that if he does well Tuesday night you should have no problem adding him to your squad and really thinking that he’s turned the corner. However, if the Yanks beat him up, you may want to wait another five solid starts or so before feeling safe about adding him to your squad. He is the ultimate high risk, high reward pick up.

Articles, The Poet Gio Gonzalez, Jaime Garcia, Kevin Correia, Luke Hochevar