Fantasy Baseball Geeks

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Beginning in little league, pitchers are taught many different strategies in terms of how to pitch effectively. By far, the biggest key to pitching effectively is getting a first pitch strike. By getting ahead in the count,

Kevin Slowey - Icon SMI

pitchers are able to put more pressure on the hitter and are able to mix and match pitches more effectively. The same principle applies to the big leagues. Pitchers that are able to consistently get ahead of hitters have more success and thus are more valuable to clubs and also to fantasy owners. First I want to take a look at the First Pitch Strike Percentage leaders from 2008, and then look at the league leaders thus far in 2009.

With the exception of Vazquez (who still won 12 games) and Sonnanstine, (11) all the other pitchers had either great or very good ERA’s. Wins can be heavily influenced by team play, in this case hurting Maddux even though his 4.22 ERA was below the league average.  Santana, Lee and Sonnanstine can be considered surprises based on their performances in 2008 vs. career numbers. While I only listed the Top 10, a few other pitchers with high First Pitch Strike ratios had very good 2008 numbers. Of course, CC Sabathia (63.9), Johan Santana (63.8) and Roy Halladay (63.4) ranked in the Top 20. However, Ricky Nolasco (63.6, 15 wins, 3.52) and Nick Blackburn (63.6, 11 wins, 4.05 ERA) also ranked in the Top 20. While there’s many factors that went into Nolasco’s recent demotion (his unrealistic 0.402 BABIP, an opponents batting average of 0.349, and his  increased BB/9 ratio – from 1.78 to 2.68), his inability to get ahead of hitters as he did last year could also a be factor (his FS% dropped from 63.6 to 59.9). Getting ahead of the hitter is not the end all, be all, but in fantasy baseball, as in real baseball, I’d take a pitcher who can get ahead of hitters. By getting ahead, he could limit his pitch count and pitch deeper into games, giving fantasy owners more opportunities to secure wins.

Thus far in 2009, the leader in FS% is none other than Dan Haren at an incredible 71.7%.  Though Haren’s 3-4 record does not show it, he has been outstanding thus far (63 innings, 63 K’s, 2.57 ERA, 0.90 WHIP). He’s been a top notch pitcher for years, so there’s no question he’ll continue to pitch well. Here’s the current Top 10 thus far in 2009:

Haren, Halladay, Vazquez, Santana and Peavy are no surprises. However, Uehara, Wolf, Slowey and Pineiro are. All four are pitching very well thus far, though in Uehara’s and Wolf’s cases, they are not getting the wins. Uehara had a very distinguished career in Japan, where he had an ERA over 3.85 only once in his 8 years as a starting pitcher (in 2007, he became a closer and notched 32 saves, with a 1.74 ERA and 66 K’s in 62 innings, but was starting again in 2008). He’s a classic command pitcher (206 walks in 276 games), so he should be a nice bet for decent ERA and WHIP numbers, but his wins may be limited pitching for Baltimore. I’m a bit more skeptical with Wolf. He currently has a very good ERA (3.02), but with a low BABIP (0.258), low opponents average (0.224) and a slightly higher than average Left on Base ratio (76.4% of runners he puts on base do not score vs. league average of about 70%), there’s some room for correction. As long as he’s in the Dodgers rotation, he has a chance at a decent win total, but look for his overall numbers to rise as the season progresses. Slowey seemed to cement his status as a reliable fantasy option in 2008. He had an ERA under 4.00 (3.99), with 12 wins and great command (5.13 K/BB ratio). In 2009, his command is even better (9.75 K/BB) and currently has a 6-1 record. Though his ERA is a bit above last year’s, look for him to improve. His current 0.357 BABIP is among the league leaders (ranked 4^th) and is due for correction closer to the league average of 0.290-0.300 (he was at 0.297 last year).  This correction over the rest of the season should help lower his ERA and thus increase his value. Pineiro is an interesting case. He’s had an ERA under 4.60 only once in the past 5 years (4.35 in 2007) and has not had a WHIP under 1.40 in any of the past 4 years. A closer look at his numbers in 2009 reveals an increased ability to keep the ball down, limiting his home runs allowed. He currently has a 59.9% Ground Ball ratio, far better than his career average of 47.1%. In turn, his Fly Ball ratio has dropped from 34.3% in 2007, 29.7% in 2008 to a career low 23.6%. Of those fly balls, only 4% are making it out of the ballpark (compared to his career average of 11.5% FB/HR). In his last 3 starts, Pineiro has induced 18, 16, and 18 ground balls, a good sign for continued success. I’d say he’s a good pickup for the short term, but be sure to keep an eye on the number of ground balls he’s inducing- if the number starts to drop, it’s time to let him go.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, struggles by Gil Meche (50% FS vs. 58.8% in 2008 and 59.6% in 2007), Ubaldo Jimenez (51.5% vs. 56.8% in 2008) and most notably Randy Johnson (53.4% vs. 63.9% in 2008, a 10% drop!) can at least be partly attributed to their inability to get ahead of hitters. Jimenez has pitched very well his last 4 starts (27 innings, 6 runs, 24/5 K/BB) with much better control, so he seems to be turning it around. For Meche and Johnson, it’s best to stay in a holding pattern until they show they can get ahead of hitters.

In terms of pitching at the big league level, when little league coaches preach to pitchers about throwing a first pitch strike, getting ahead in the count, etc. the exact same principle applies to pitchers making millions of dollars. The best pitchers are the ones who can consistently get ahead of hitters, making their jobs much easier (and of course, rewarding fantasy owners who have them on their teams).

As always, feel free to send me an email about these players or any others: draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com or post a comment below.

draftguru Articles, Draft Guru Dan Haren, Gil Meche, Javier Vazquez, Johan Santana, Kevin Slowey, Koji Uehara, Ricky Nolasco, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Ubaldo Jimenez