Free Agent Trends – Week 13
doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
Catcher
Most Added: Yadier Molina has had a nice month of June hitting .299 with 2 HR and 7 RBI. He even threw in a token SB for good measure. Molina is best left for NL only and deep mixed leagues as he might barely crack 10 HR with 50 to 60 RBI.
Derrek Lee - Icon SMI
Most Dropped: Jason Varitek has been bothered by a stiff neck and his owners have been bothered by his .231 batting average. Tek is still going to get you 20 HR, but that BA albatross is a tough cross for any smart owner to bear.
First Base
Most Added: Derrek Lee was written off by many as a player on the decline with a good BA and soft HR numbers. Lee is raking in June with a .358 AVG, 6 HR, and 18 RBI. There is definitely something left in the tank and the return of Aramis Ramirez in a couple of weeks will further help his cause. DD recommends Lee in all formats as he very well could hit 25 HR with 95 RBI and give you a close to a .300 BA.
Most Dropped: Chris Davis continues to strikeout at a shocking rate and has 103 K’s on the season. This would be great if he was a pitcher, but we all expected a lot more out of the Rangers slugger. Davis is still hitting for power and is on pace to hit 32 jacks. He had a 4 hit game on 6/25, but there have been rumblings that a change needs to be made. Perhaps a stint back at AAA would do him some good and get his confidence back. Justin Smoak is healthy once again and mashing the minors, so owners should monitor this situation closely as the summer progresses. Smoak is going to be a showstopper.
Second Base
Most Added: Casey McGehee has never been considered a top prospect, but the injury to Rickie Weeks has opened the door for him to prove scouts wrong. McGehee has made the most of his opportunity hitting .343 with 3 HR and 15 RBI over 96 at bats. He is a great pick up in NL only and deep mixed leagues have to take notice if he continues to hit.
Most Dropped: Kelly Johnson is mired in a slump hitting only .132 in June with zero HR. Johnson is notoriously streaky and this is a decent buy low opportunity as he provides solid HR and RBI production for a second baseman. DD expects 15 jacks, so owners picking him up have 10 more to go for the rest of the season. I am a buyer here.
Shortstop
Most Added: Everth Cabrera is a player you need to know. Focus people. Cabrera was activated from the 60 day DL after having surgery on his left hand. The Padres have been giving him playing time at SS and he has delivered with a .323 BA. What is so special about Cabrera? The man is ridiculously quick. In ’08 he stole 73 bases in the minors. DD would advise starting him right away in NL only and mixed leagues should roster him and stash him on your bench. If he can stick in the lineup it would not be shocking to see him steal 20 bases between now and the end of the season.
Most Dropped: Elvis Andrus is still only 20 years old, so his recent struggles at the plate should come as no surprise. He is hitting only .174 in June, but has still provided 5 stolen bases this month. Andrus is still a must in AL only and should be used in deep mixed leagues despite the slump. He is going to be a keeper league stud as he continues to mature into a star.
Third Base
Most Added: Scott Rolen is healthy and looks inspired when playing the game. Rolen is not a 30 HR threat anymore, but if he can stay off the DL he could hit over .300 with a decent RBI total making him a viable option in AL only. DD is rooting for Rolen, but I fear his brittle frame will disappoint us again soon.
Most Dropped: Garrett Atkins is going to be featured in this space until further notice or until there is someone better to complain about. Last week I offered up an ultimatum of sorts to Atkins and so far he has delivered. The Rockies have not fully cooperated as he has only had one start at DH out of a possible three, but he did go off during that start. On 6/24 against the Angels he went 3 for 4 with a HR and 2 RBI. This has become personal for me. Atkins owners need to reach out to one another and share our pain. The second I want to give up he drops a ray of hope by having a good game. Be strong everyone. You have 3 more games this week Garrett, so make the most of them. Stay tuned……..
Outfield
Most Added: Marcus Thames is going to get you 20 jacks, but he is also going to hit .250. His 5 HR in June has led to this increase in ownership, but AL only owners are the only ones that should have him active. Garret Anderson has had a decent season thus far posting 3 HR, 26 RBI, and a .280 BA. Anderson is getting a little long in the tooth, but he is a decent run producer for both NL only and deep mixed leagues. Xavier Nady has continued to make progress rehabbing his injured right elbow and is hoping to rejoin the Yankees at some point soon. He has been fine with the bat, but throwing has been the problem. The Yankees are stocked with DH veteran types, so he will be best served if can actually play in the field upon his return. Nady is a definite player to add and stash because he has the offensive potential to help in all formats.
Most Dropped: Coco Crisp is out for the season after having surgery to repair a torn labrum. It is safe to drop Crisp as this bowl of cereal is now soggy. Many of you emailed me in May to pound the table on Luke Scott calling for a 50 HR season and a handful of AL MVP votes. Where did you guys go? The emails have stopped coming. Scott is still a very useful OF in all formats, but now his pace of 31 HR is much more reasonable. He will get hot again, so keep him active.
Starting Pitcher
Most Added: Fernando Nieve has done a great job for the Mets going 3-0 in his first three trips as a starter. DD recommends extreme caution as he is going to be facing the Brewers and Phillies on the road this week. I wish him luck, but this is not going to end well. Aaron Cook is pretty much a consistent average 5th fantasy SP. He has pretty good control, pitches deep into games, and has ratios that won’t kill you. He is a spot starter in mixed formats and a must own in NL only despite the Coors issue. Trevor Cahill was mentioned last week, but he continues to shine. He befuddled the Giants on 6/22 going 7 strong innings picking up the win and striking out 4. He is becoming a viable option in deep mixed leagues and the window of opportunity to own him is likely already closed. Homer Bailey ALERT. Bailey has been a big disappointment following years of monster hype followed by less than adequate results. He has been lights out in the minors upon adding a split-fingered fastball to his repertoire and is in line to get a start for the Reds on Saturday. NL only owners should strike now before the buzz develops if you have room on your bench as the pedigree is there for Bailey to be a difference maker and he is still only 23 years old with plenty of career in front of him.
Most Dropped: Josh Outman was having a nice season posting good ratios and a solid K/9, but has landed on the DL. He has a sprained left elbow that will keep him out until sometime in late July at the earliest. Stash him on the DL and keep an eye on his replacement Gio Gonzalez despite his gruesome first start. Dave Bush has been shut down for a few weeks with the classic tired arm. My arm would be tired too if I gave up as many runs as he has. Ian Snell has been demoted to AAA after another dismal effort on 6/23. After having a breakout campaign in 2007 Snell has been going the wrong direction in a hurry.
Relief Pitcher
Most Added: Leo Nunez is a hot pick up as it appears that he will assume the Closer duties for the Florida Marlins for the foreseeable future. Nunez had a great season for the Royals in ’08 posting a 2.99 ERA before heading south in the Mike Jacobs trade. His WHIP is a tick high for me, but he is still a must add in all formats if he officially gets the job. Keep an eye on Renyel Pinto and Dan Meyer if Nunez falters or has any lingering injury issues. Brad Lidge was activated this week and has to be added in all formats with the caveat that you are assuming his poor performance was due to injury and not simply to completely sucking for 2 months. David Aardsma has quietly established himself as a reliable 9th inning option for the Mariners and has 15 saves on the season with 7 coming in June alone. His walks are down and his K/9 is way up. He will not stay this perfect forever, but he is clearly an underrated commodity in this space.
Most Dropped: Matt Lindstrom has never looked comfortable in the Closers role. His 6.52 ERA and 1.90 WHIP seem out of place when he can gas it up to 100 MPH, but Lindstrom was able to do just that. He has lacked command of his secondary pitches and opposing hitters have been able to sit dead read on his heater. The base on balls only compounded this mess. Lindstrom also needs to develop the mean swagger of a successful Closer and to have a chip on his shoulder. He looks like a person that needs a hug and not one that has no problem breezing his fastball within inches of your skull. A sprained elbow has landed him on the DL for at least 6 weeks, but he will have more to overcome than physical issues upon his return. At least now we don’t have to see any more of those painful pictures of him in the dugout grimacing after he blew another save rubbing his sweaty head in disbelief. Ryan Madson had a rocky run during Brad Lidge’s absence blowing two saves. He is still a great option in NL only and could become a hot pick up again if Lidge crumbles.
Flip That Two Start Pitcher
The rules are simple: Find SP’s with two starts in the upcoming scoring period that are generally available in 50% or more leagues. Our goal is to maximize value for the coming week and then dump him for next week’s choice. Flips can be a risky proposition and should only be completed with the assistance of Double Down or under close supervision of another Fantasy Baseball Geek.
I must admit this weeks FT2SP took me a while to find, but I am satisfied with the results. Clayton Richard is an imposing left hander for the Chicago White Sox as he stands at 6’5”. Richard is an intriguing young arm that has had inconsistent results this season in large part due to his walk totals. His ERA at home in US Cellular is 5.14 while his away ERA is a much more palatable 3.67. Start #1 will be in Cleveland against the Indians and Cliff Lee. Hopefully the lefty bats of Sizemore, Choo, and Hafner will struggle against the big southpaw. Start #2 will be at Kansas City against Brian Bannister. KC is 25th in MLB in runs scored, so we have that going for us. Bannister’s current ERA is half a run lower than his career norm meaning that a correction to the mean is going to continue. The White Sox bats should gnaw his cleats off. Mike Jacobs, Mark Teahan, and David DeJesus should all feel the negative affects of the lefty vs. lefty match-up. A ll of the evidence presented to you should tell you to download Adam Carolla’s podcast on iTunes and to Flip That Two-Start Pitcher.
Whether you love me or hate me I am usually right. Keep the emails coming: doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
