In Search of the 5 Tool Superstar
sonofzim@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
The term “5 Tool Player” gets tossed around a lot by scouts and many other baseball wizards, but how many guys really contribute across the board….hit for average, hit for power, steal bases, field and throw. Now of course the last two tools tend to not mean much to fantasy players, but a player’s ability to field his position well does have a lot to do with them staying in the lineup during slumps and not being pulled for a defensive replacement late in games. Ken Griffey Jr. was the best I ever saw of the 5 Tool prophecies…maybe Barry Bonds if you believe in his enhanced power. When you really knuckle down and look at the numbers, the Mystical 5 Tool Player with the capability of producing .300 25 HR 20 SB is harder to find than a healthy J.D. Drew season.
Hanley Ramirez - Icon SMI
There are players nowadays who bring you Henderson-like steal totals like Carl Crawford or Jacoby Ellsbury, but neither is likely to hit twenty homers in a season. Then there are the Carlos Pena/Adam Dunn prototypes good for enormous power but no speed or average. Ichiro does everything above average except lift line drives over the fence.
On pure talent, Jose Reyes is just short of the status but could inch closer as he matures and grows some pop (he has yet to eclipse the 20 homer mark in a season). As of now consider him a solid 4 out of 5. Once upon a time Derek Jeter was close, but now his range is becoming an issue as he ages and a position change could affect his plate performance in the seasons ahead. Even so, Jeter never hit 25 dingers in a season so he would be considered second tier on the 5 Tool Scale. Jimmy Rollins was right there from 2006-2007 with 25+ homeruns, 35+ steals and an average around .280 all while playing an above average shortstop. Now, Rollins is having trouble keeping his average above the Mendoza-line. So where does that leave us in 2009?
Ryan Braun is a flat out stud with massive power and good speed. The trouble is he is an average defender at best. No fantasy owner in their right mind should care about that, but I would also not be surprised if his stolen bases start to vanish as his career progresses. David Wright looked like a 5 Tool lock as a 30/30 gold glove third basemen, but this year he has only 4 home runs to his credit. Yes…4! Grady Sizemore has all the right moves but he remains a .270 career hitter. A healthy Sizemore though should reach .300 soon enough. Matt Kemp is another star on the rise capable of reaching this status if he stays on pace in the power department this year. And then there is Alex Rodriguez who was probably the next best 5 Tooler to Griffey when you look over his career numbers, but with his hip surgery it is clear his running days are behind him. (Only 2 SB since his return)
That leaves only five players in my mind that can be considered 5 Tool: Carlos Beltran, Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler and my new favorite Justin Upton.
Until his recent injury, Carlos Beltran was having a stellar season posting an average above .330 and a slugging percentage over .520 despite playing half his games in Citi Field. He has stolen 20 or more bases seven times in his career and is the all time leader (YES ALL TIME!) in stolen base percentage at a staggering .881 rate, which basically means he never gets thrown out. He is also the only one of the five mentioned to reach the 40 homerun plateau not to mention his brilliant center field play to boot. If his season is cut short this year it will be a flat out shame.
Now some will argue that Hanley Ramirez is a butcher in the field and they would be exaggerating. His fielding percentage in 2008 (.967) is only a few points lower than the “far superior” Reyes at .974. For fantasy owners as long as he stays at short his value is infinitely higher. Ramirez is a lock for 30/30 every season with a .300 average to go along. He is still only 26 and one can only imagine if the Red Sox had held onto him what sort of stats he could produce in that lineup. I am sure Sox fans appreciate Josh Beckett and their two titles though, but it is still fun to fantasize about Hanley and the Monster.
Ian Kinsler and Chase Utley have it all and at second base there is no one better than this duo. Utley is steady with 30 homerun power and 15 SB every season and with a healthy hip he is on pace for 20 SB. Ian Kinsler’s average should rebound to match his career .280 mark but with 35/35 potential we can cut him some slack. He is beginning to blossom into an elite player.
The last and perhaps most intriguing of all is Justin Upton. He is only 21 years old, halfway into his second full season and is on pace to finish with:
| Year | Team |
AB |
R |
H |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
| On Pace | ARI |
570 |
103 |
181 |
30 |
97 |
21 |
0.3175 |
0.3975 |
0.5754 |
Wow! Where do you go from there? The Griffey comparisons might start sooner than expected. His brother B.J. is a fine athlete as well, but not in the same class as his younger brother Justin when it comes to raw power. In fact, Upton might even have the chance to battle for some all-time records someday since he is producing so well at such a tender age. Oh yeah, he also plays a great RF and has a cannon for an arm.
Yes, it is very early to put Upton in this kind of conversation. Then again ask the question: What would I give to have him on my team right now? Many have dazzled before fizzling, but Upton has the pedigree and pure talent to back it up. Not to mention a healthy sibling rivalry to keep him motivated.
And don’t look now but the “All World” Albert Pujols is on pace for 18 steals in 2009, which would be the highest total of his career. Just when you thought he couldn’t get any better…
HELPFUL HINT: All around good players are a key to being successful in roto leagues. If everyone on your team hit 15-20 homers and stole 10-20 bases you would end up at the top of the heap. It isn’t all about getting the “one guy” who does one thing really well. Versatile talents will serve you better over the marathon that is the major league baseball season.
-SoZ
I think another just miss is Andre Ethier.
I am a big, big believer in the Upton brothers. Amazing how much talent one family can produce.
Now c’mon, even if you don’t believe in his enhanced power Bonds was hitting for solid 30+ HR power before the HGH expanded his head.
Oh you were saying “the best,” nevermind I am an idiot!
I am a big believer in Justin Upton at least. This year he’s added steals to his game too. He’s pretty great already and he’s so young.