Free Agent Trends – Week 14
doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
Catcher
Most Added: Ryan Doumit who has been out since late April with a broken wrist is heading to AAA this weekend to begin a rehab assignment. He is a player to target in all formats as he has ample power and should provide a great second half spark if the wrist holds up. Doumit is at least a couple of weeks away from returning to the Pirates.
Ricky Romero - Icon SMI
Most Dropped: Rod Barajas had a good power month in June belting 4 HR, but he managed to only hit .224. He has been dealing with some hamstring issues that led to this decrease in ownership. His current BA stands at .267, which is above his career mark of .243. Barajas has a career BABIP of .260 while his ’09 number stands at .283 meaning he could see some regression. He is a solid option in AL only, but mixed leagues should look elsewhere.
First Base
Most Added: Adam LaRoche is finding his groove again as he hit .334 for the month of June. He is on pace for 24 HR and 79 RBI, but he is a notoriously good second half player making those numbers a little low. He has a career HR percentage (HR/plate appearances) of 4.2% and his current rate is sitting at 3.5% meaning the pop is likely to happen more frequently in the months ahead. LaRoche is a great option in NL only and should be a good value in deep mixed formats for the second half.
Most Dropped: Nick Johnson is sinking further away from being a useable option as his BA continues to plummet. His average is down to .295 and with a BABIP of .339 he has actually been a little lucky, so it could get worse. Johnson should be left for NL only and the deepest of mixed formats. I’m sorry who are you again? I’m Frieda’s boss. Whose Frieda? My secretary.
Second Base
Most Added: Martin Prado has been stealing at bats from the struggling Kelly Johnson in Atlanta. Bobby Cox seems frustrated enough with Johnson to almost hand over the job to Prado on a more full time basis. Over the course of his 470 career at bats he is hitting .306, so there has to be at least a little intrigue in this development for NL only owners. Prado hit .359 in June and is blazing hot in July hitting .429. DD is watching this situation very closely.
Most Dropped: The Adam Kennedy love fest seems to be coming to a close in Oakland. He is still getting regular playing time, but his BA has dipped to .286 after snapping in the month of May. Kennedy is an AL only option as he does have a little speed and won’t kill you anywhere. Mike Aviles was a surprise breakout star in ’08 and is now a mega bust in ’09. Aviles dribbled out one HR and 8 RBI over his 120 at bats before having Tommy John surgery on his elbow ending his dreadful season.
Shortstop
Most Added: Maicer Izturis had a great month of June hitting .338 with 2 HR and 12 RBI. He is going to steal some bases for you, but he is best left for deep AL only leagues as an MI. I’ll have a Bloody Mary, a steak sandwich, and a steak sandwich….charge it to Underhill.
Most Dropped: Khalil Greene is a tough story to cover. He seemed to be showing signs of snapping out of his funk and getting his anxiety demons under control, but that was short lived. Greene quickly reverted back to his old ways and was 0 for his last 14 before landing on the DL again. The acquisition of Mark DeRosa pretty much puts an end to any remaining value Greene may have had. Time to cut him and hope he can straighten himself out.
Third Base
Most Added: Jake Fox is getting plenty of at bats in the absence of Aramis Ramirez at 3B for the Cubs and has delivered poking 3 HR with 12 RBI while hitting at a .316 clip. He has very good pop, but his playing time is set to take a major hit with Ramirez due back as soon as Monday. Ramirez becomes and instant hitter to pick up and the Cubs hope he can be a catalyst to get the offense more consistent. If Ramirez has a setback Fox will continue to have value. Monitor this situation closely over the weekend.
Most Dropped: Adrian Beltre has been shut down and had surgery this week to remove bone spurs from his shoulder. Couple points to ponder here as the suggested recovery time is up to 8 weeks. Now normally you would say drop him, but remember that Beltre is a free agent and will do everything in his power to get back on the field to showcase himself before the season is through. Dead presidents are what this game is all about and this is probably his last big payday. I feel like a hundred dollars. Oh and by the way….F-you Atkins. 0 for 6 this week you freaking weasel.
Outfield
Most Added: Brett Gardner has made the most of his opportunities when he gets to play for the Yankees delivering a five hit effort on 6/26. Problem is he is really only a decent bat and his main asset (SPEED) can only provide value you if you play frequently and get on base. Franklin Gutierrez is a player DD has tracked closely for a couple of years always expecting him to drop a 20/20 at some point. He is on pace to hit 16 HR with 10 SB’s, so maybe next year is it when he will be in his peak at age 27. Nate Schierholtz is now seeing everyday playing time and has been taking advantage of the situation. He is hitting .307 with 3 HR and 12 RBI. Schierholtz is sporting a rather lucky .353 BABIP, so expect him to have some potential regression as things revert back to the mean.
Most Dropped: Xavier Nady was so close to returning and then had a setback, which has resulted in an upcoming Tommy John surgery. Drop him in all formats. Elijah Dukes played himself back to the minors by hitting .243 for the season. He is still an intriguing bat that could have a bright future if he can stay out of trouble off the field. Juan Pierre is a consummate professional and has been nothing short of awesome since the Manny Ramirez suspension. Manny is due back today, so Pierre’s value does take a hit as his playing time will decrease. Joe Torre will find him at bats, but this does hurt owners who got used to having him for 6 or 7 games a week. Ever seen a spleen that large? No, not since breakfast.
Starting Pitcher
Most Added: Ricky Romero has been amazing posting a 6-3 record with 61 strikeouts, a 2.85 ERA, and a 1.24 WHIP. The stuff is there for him to be a darn good fantasy asset, so all formats should be rostering him. If he can improve his command and keep the walks down he has great potential. Kevin Correia had a nice stretch of starts going 4-2 in June with a 3.08 ERA and 34 K’s. He got everyone all excited and then dropped a stink bomb out there yesterday coughing up 6 ER over 5 innings before the swarm of bees arrived. Correia is a spot starter and match-up play, so next weeks potential 2 starts make him attractive once again.
Most Dropped: Jonathan Sanchez looked to be a breakout candidate entering this season, but instead he has been a monster disappointment. His stuff does not seem to translate to a 5.45 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP, but if you fall behind and give up walks your raw talent does not matter much. Sanchez is now working out of the bullpen, so his value has been flushed down the toilet.
Relief Pitcher
Most Added: Leo Nunez is healthy and nailed down a couple of saves this week for the Marlins. He has not been officially anointed the Closer, but the writing is on the wall. He is a must add in all formats.
Most Dropped: Chad Qualls blew yesterday. I was going to say he blew another save, but I stopped short and just said he flat out blew. Qualls has complained in the past of forearm stiffness and he is also always mentioned as a potential trade candidate. DD added Tony Pena recently for what it’s worth. I have a hunch that one way or another Qualls will not be closing out games for the Snakes within the next couple of weeks. Just a hunch….
Flip That Two Start Pitcher
The rules are simple: Find SP’s with two starts in the upcoming scoring period that are generally available in 50% or more leagues. Our goal is to maximize value for the coming week and then dump him for next week’s choice. Flips can be a risky proposition and should only be completed with the assistance of Double Down or under close supervision of another Fantasy Baseball Geek.
Jason Hammel is this weeks FT2SP and it was not even close. Hammel has been on fire going 4-0 in June and then threw 8 innings of one run ball taking a tough luck loss against the Dodgers on 7/1. Factor in that the Rockies are the hottest team in baseball and we have ourselves a solid flip kids. Start #1 will be at home against the Washington Nationals and Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann has been great over the last month, so this one is going to be a donnybrook. Start #2 will be at home against Javier Vasquez and the Atlanta Braves. The current Braves batters have had 32 career plate appearances against Hammel and have accumulated zero HR. Todd Helton has eaten Vasquez for dinner over his career hitting .300 with 2 jacks. A ll of the evidence presented to you should tell you to check out my article in the current edition of the USA Today Sports Weekly (shhhhhh..my real name is Kevin O’Donnell) and to Flip That Two-Start Pitcher.
Whether you love me or hate me I am usually right. Keep the emails coming: doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
Pierre hit .264/.319/.628 in June, pay attention.