THE GAME IS EVOLVING, IS YOUR STRATEGY?
Sonofzim@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
Baseball is still a game built on power, whether it is 95mph fastball or a 450ft homerun. But if you look closer at the Post-PED era, we are seeing a trend of fewer runs per game and a clearer emphasis on speed, defense and pitching. So what does that mean to fantasy owners?
Dexter Fowler - Icon SMI
Well, homeruns are still abundant especially if you own Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder, but there are fewer players breaking the 30 homerun mark then there were five or ten years ago. Only five players hit 40 homeruns this year: Pujols (47), Fielder (46), Howard (45), Mark Reynolds (44) and Adrian Gonzalez (40). 19 others hit 30 or more. In 2000, 47 players hit 30 or more homeruns which meant if you missed out on the big boys there was plenty of depth to be found. Nowadays, you need to invest in your sluggers early or you will be left out riding the pine. This looks like the trend for the foreseeable future.
On the flip side, in the year 2000 only 20 starters had an ERA under 4.00. Last year 42 pitchers broke the 4.00 threshold. Runs per game have been trending downward three years in a row.
|
Year |
Runs per Game |
|
4.61 |
|
|
4.65 |
|
|
4.8 |
|
|
4.86 |
It is clear that pitchers are dominating in today’s game and although depth is greater than it was a decade ago, owning a Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke or Felix Hernandez is equivalent to having Barry Bonds or Sammy Sosa in their steroid heydays. There are made fantasy “experts” that will tell you to not draft pitching early. They are dead wrong. Drafting a solid ace is just as important as getting that middle of the order bat. ALL players are risks. That is part of the game. A smart owner will be able to rebound from bad luck and injuries and find ways to stay competitive.
Another interesting trend is the reemergence of the stolen base. In 2005, 27 players stole 20 or more bases, but in 2009, 46 guys hit that mark. That is nearly double! There will always be the Michael Bourn‘s and Jacoby Ellsbury‘s who can carry your steals category on their own, but grabbing Denard Span and Dexter Fowler late can save your need for speed if you miss out on the stolen base run in your draft.
There is more than one way to skin a cat nowadays. Almost gone are the days of mashing your way to a title. Sure, it can still be done, but not nearly as easily as ten years ago. Pitchers are ruling the day especially in head to head leagues where two starts can dominate and players in general are becoming more athletic, utilizing their speed to generate runs as opposed to their bulging biceps. Total Bases will become more valuable a statistic than ever when evaluating talent heading into draft day. Fantasy is not all about homeruns anymore…
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Maybe a little bit more explanation is due here.
You open by detailing how HRs are way down and quality power bats are much harder to find than ever. Then you talk about abundant quality depth of pitching.
With power becoming more scarce and “pitching dominating today’s game,” how does it make sense to give up drafting a power bat in the first couple rounds to draft an ace when more pitchers are putting up ERAs under 4 with much more frequency.
Seems to me like the numbers are screaming to draft that 40 HR bat or the 30 HR bat first and worry about pitching, which is plentiful, later…
Thanks for the comment Sean. As you see I agree with you in the piece “Nowadays, you need to invest in your sluggers early or you will be left out riding the pine.”
My point about picthing is that like Bonds and Big Mac used to slug 60 homers in a seeason and dominate a league so too are guys like Lincecum by striking out 260 batters nowadays.
Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Reynolds though 40 homer guys are not what I would build a team around especially if you have a late first rounder. Hope this clears up the questions. Thanks again for reading!
If you “hit” on an ace, they are every bit as helpful as the power hitter. There is just more risk on a Linceum than there is a Pujols just because this may be the year Linceum blows his arm out due to his funky delivery.
Yes I would take Linceum over Gonzalez due to the depth at the 1B posiition.
I made the mistake of taking Hamels too early last year but luckily it didn’t bit me since I snagged Tommy Hanson late (NL Only league)
Is February over yet?
I agree. I think you need to draft the power before the pitching because there aren’t many HR hitters as there were in the PEDs era. However, I would not wait too long on pitching. I like to grab a stud SP by round 5 depending upon how the draft is shaping up. Have to be flexible. Writing down lists are good such as who you consider that top 10 SP that you want as the anchor to your staff. I had Halladay anchor my team for the 5-years I was able to keep him. Before that, it was Pedro BoSox days (AL-Only league). One stud makes up for a lot.