Fantasy Baseball Geeks

doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

In the article below I will make observations regarding recent mock draft results of relief pitchers.  I will be using the current ADP results from our friends over at www.mockdraftcentral.com as a guide for my rambling analysis in this report.

Jonathan Broxton - Icon SMI

Relief Pitchers: Top 5

There is an argument that Mariano Rivera (#2) should be drafted ahead of Jonathan Papelbon (#1), but for me it makes some sense to take Pap.  It is a fact that no player is going to pitch in a dominating fashion forever and Mo is at some point going to decline.  Playing 2010 at age 40 is a risk whether anyone wants to admit it or not.  Papelbon did see his walks increase to a career high 24 last season, but his other stats remained stellar.  You really cannot go wrong here, but DD feels the drafters got this right and Pap should be ahead of Rivera.  The Ox Jonathan Broxton (#3) will challenge for #1 status without question this season as he continues to evolve and mature.  He has had some minor durability issues that are a reason to worry, but 117 strikeouts in 76 innings are filthy.  That K stat for me makes him a legit contender to be the #1 Closer on the fantasy market and I would not hesitate to draft him as such.  Joe Nathan (#4) is a red flag Closer for DD this season.  Nathan had a more mortal second half of the year as he posted a 2.88 ERA after the break as opposed to a 1.31 ERA during the first half.  There was a noticeable drop in velocity as well.  Consider that to be strike 1.  I personally watched the Yankees dismantle him in the playoffs on TV.  That type of implosion can stick with a player even one with a lot of experience like Nathan.  Strike 2.  During the offseason he has surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow.  Strike 3.  Nobody is talking about this or hedging their bets on him as he is atop the rankings lists and I for one would be very wary of taking him too early.

Picks 6-10: Heath Bell (#7) is a major risk due to the high likelihood that he gets traded from the Padres this season and ends up being a set-up man for a contender.  Bell has been terrific as a Closer, but the chances of him being dealt at some point being close to 100% make this too high a price to pay for him on draft day.  Brian Fuentes (#9) must feel like he needs eyes in the back of his head.  He is not a prototypical closer with electric stuff, so his struggles last season should come as no surprise.  The Angels are paying him a lot of money, but Fernando Rodney is lurking should he falter.  Then the discussion will turn to who is next in line once Rodney implodes, which will also happen.

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Articles, Double Down Billy Wagner, Brian Fuentes, Chad Qualls, Chris Perez, David Aardsma, Drew Storen, Fernando Rodney, Heath Bell, J.J. Putz, J.P. Howell, Jason Motte, Jim Johnson, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Broxton, Jonathan Papelbon, Kerry Wood, LaTroy Hawkins, Mariano Rivera, Mike Adams, Rafael Soriano, Ryan Franklin, Takashi Saito

birdman@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Welcome back to the Revolving Door!  I decided to hold off on my column from a couple weeks ago until the trade deadline passed.  Figured it’s not fair telling you to pick up a player, only to have them traded.

Joe Nathan - Icon SMI

Anyway, enough chit-chat., here’s the latest news you need to pick up saves.

Who’s Hot

Huston Street, Colorado Rockies…The Rockies’ closer has pitched 4 innings and notched 4 saves the past couple weeks, giving up only one hit while striking out 6.  No offense to Huston, but it’s a big surprise he’s pitched this well after some not-so-great times in Oakland.  I’m guessing his owners aren’t complaining though.

Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees…He just doesn’t ever seem to slow down, does he?  5.1 innings, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts and 5 saves in the past two weeks.  The cut fastball master continues to roll along this year, and is rolling along towards another 40-save season.

C.J. Wilson, Texas Rangers…The man who replaced Frank Francisco in Texas is giving his team no reason to switch back.  Wilson has struck out 12 in 7.2 innings the past couple weeks, saving 5 games for the Rangers.  The lefty is proving last year’s 24 saves weren’t a fluke.

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Articles, Birdman Bobby Jenks, Brian Fuentes, C.J. Wilson, Frank Francisco, George Sherrill, Huston Street, Jason Frasor, Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Scott Downs

Hello followers of the Geeks! I apologize for the delay in Revolving Door columns. See, the thing is…I got stuck in a revolving door. Ironic, huh? That’s what ironic means, doesn’t it? Hello?

Mariano Rivera - Icon SMI

Anyway, this is the way things will work now…I’ll bring you fine readers a new column every two weeks. We’ll go over who’s hot, not, hurt, healing, in and out…you know, the usual closer-related stuff. I’ll also provide you a top 30 list of relievers. The list will be based on how I believe the pitchers will perform the rest of the season.

Here’s the thing: This column is for you guys. So if there’s a certain angle you want me to take, just say the word. Other than the outstanding salary I get paid (just closed on my 4 th beach house this week), I write for you guys (and girls).

But enough about me…here’s the new and improved Revolving Door!

Who’s Hot (past 2 weeks)

Mariano Rivera – Someone new and different, right? Mo’s been lights out for the Yankees, saving 6 games the past two weeks, with a WHIP of .17. I’ve had BAC’s higher than that! Give me a challenge Mariano!

Joe Nathan – Another constant on the list…the Twins’ closer has also saved 6 games the past fortnight, striking out 12 batters while giving up only one hit and one walk. Expect more of the same from Nathan the rest of the year.
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Articles, Birdman Brian Fuentes, David Aardsma, Frank Francisco, Joe Nathan, Kerry Wood, Mariano Rivera, Matt Lindstrom

raven@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Never before have the “don’t spend big draft picks/dollars on closers” advocates been more prominent in their outspoken prognostications about the increasingly volatile end game role. In the past, I felt closers were somewhat similar to starting pitchers - a handful warranted a high draft pick based on very consistent, high level performance, while quite a few would be seen as “likely to do well” and finding value in the others who appeared poised to fall into opportunity would separate the league winners from the also-rans.

Joakim Soria - Icon SMI

In 2009, MLB teams have become even more guarded in their public disclosure of injuries and/or internal discussions involving bullpen roles, and the list of walking wounded has exploded to grudgingly expose risky closer jobs on a majority of teams. Given this trend in the game, being aware of the most volatile situations, and more importantly, being aware of the best options, is of paramount importance.

Let’s take a look at a few current closers, status going forward, and how to protect yourself if the worst occurs…

B.J. Ryan (Toronto) - He will get the save chances when he’s right, but he hasn’t been right all year. His velocity was down but improved at the expense of his command which has now resulted in a trip to the DL. The DL trip is likely to be more mechanics-related than due to an actual injury so I would expect to see him back sooner rather than later. It’s not time to write him off, but some protection is in order.

Protect yourself with: Scott Downs is the obvious choice to fill in for Ryan and will get the majority of the saves until he returns. Jason Frasor and even Brandon League could get the odd save, but Ryan owners really need Downs.

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Articles, Raven Maniac B.J. Ryan, Brandon League, Brandon Morrow, Brian Fuentes, Chris Ray, David Aardsma, Fernando Rodney, George Sherrill, Jason Frasor, Joakim Soria, Joel Zumaya, Jose Arredondo, Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth, Ryan Perry, Scott Downs, Sean Kelley

phattybo@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

The season is young and it’s hard to get into anything really substantial with statistical analysis given the small sample size but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a lot to be learned from these early season games.  I have watched every game I can so far, thanks in good part to the supreme tease that is the MLB Extra Innings free preview on Direct TV.  This experience was

Nick Adenhart - Icon SMI

illuminating on a number of levels, being able to watch at least pieces of all games with my crazy multiple TV setup made my eyes tired by the end of the day. What grabbed my attention as much as anything was the crazy regional commercials that were played on each telecast.  I have to share with you some of my favorites, as I am constantly humming the theme song of the first one.  Even when I think of it now, it makes me laugh.  My top 3 would be #1, Jack in the Box and the mini sirloin burger which features midgets herding miniature cows. (Video here) #2 some sort of sandwich delivery place called Jimmy John’s giving us something truly tasteless and mildly funny involving car accidents (Video here).  Also deserving mention is the Pittsburgh Pirates ad, selling ticket packages with a guy talking and acting like the Sham-Wow guy, “We can’t do this all day folks… here’s how to order.”  Relax buddy, the Pirates aren’t running out of available seats anytime soon.

Players that have had slow starts that I am worried about include…

Pablo Sandoval was a trendy draft pick, really scuffling so far…

Lastings Milledge is going to be in danger of losing playing time to Elijah Dukes if he keeps playing well and Milledge keeps struggling…(Editor’s Note:  On Tuesday Milledge was sent to AAA, so Dukes’ playing time should be safe for now)

Ricky Nolasco certainly hasn’t started off like his owners wanted.

J.J. Hardy led the Cactus league in hitting and had 2 hits in 22 AB’s in week 1.  Just another reminder to me to stop looking at spring stats for anything…

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Articles, PhattyBo B.J. Ryan, Brian Fuentes, Carlos Gomez, Chris Davis, David Ortiz, Edinson Volquez, J.J. Hardy, Jason Motte, Justin Upton, Lastings Milledge, Manny Parra, Mike Gonzalez, Nick Adenhart, Pablo Sandoval, Randy Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Russell Martin

phattybo@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Chocolate covered bacon.  Now there are two things I’m very fond of right there, but put together, No thank you, sir.  No, I didn’t dream up that concoction myself; I’m not quite that gluttonous.  In fact, this instant heart attack was peddled at the Florida State Fair this year…no, I don’t know if they still have the deep fried Oreos that were featured last year.  Gross.  Screw that, bring on the baseball food!  The Hot Dogs, Italian Sausage, peanuts, obligatory cracker jacks, damn I’m making myself hungry, well… It’s almost here boys.  Can you feel the excitement?  The season begins in a little over a week and I’m finally done with research and ready to move into the next phase of the season.  Can you sense it in the air?  Can you smell the fresh popped hot buttered upside of Matt Wieters or David Price?  Salivating over the chocolate covered goodness of Yovani Gallardo’s predicted breakout season?  Grab yourself a heaping handful of fresh baked Nelson Cruz hot out of the oven, with a side of Andre Either and a heaping slice of Lastings Milledge with whipped topping for dessert and dig in, baseball is back.  Now these players mentioned above are among so many players I DO want on my teams this year, but I wanted to take an opportunity to talk about those who when they come up on my draft board I respectfully say

Joey Votto - Icon SMI

… No Thank You, Sir.

Russell Martin, C Los Angeles Dodgers:  Why am I avoiding the 2^nd ranked Catcher?  A number of reasons come to mind.  First and foremost both his power and speed were down last year.  Only 13 HR and 70 RBI, I could practically get that from C. Snyder, R. Hernandez, or D. Navarro, who goes undrafted.  Martin will still add you about 12-15 steals at C, which no one else can, but I’d rather get my steals cheaper.  He doesn’t do enough in the other categories for me to roster him at an ADP of 53; he is very expensive for his returns.  No Thank You, Sir.

Joey Votto, 1B Cincinnati Reds:  I have never been a big fan of Joey’s but I didn’t really know why.  It took some research due to the fact that a lot of his indicators look pretty good.  He’s coming off a great 2^nd half last year that saw his BB rate climb 2% and his contact rate rise to a respectable 83%.  This would normally be a stat trend I’d be all over, but a closer look and you see that most of his accumulated stats occurred in September when he was red hot in games that didn’t matter.  He hit 9 of his 24HR in that month and I think that skews his stats.  I just wonder if we were looking at a stat line of .275 16HR 75RBI instead of .297 24HR 84, would he be a consideration at an ADP of 80?  I think the average will be there this year but I wonder about the power so I’m staying away.  No Thank You, Sir.

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Articles, PhattyBo B.J. Ryan, Brian Fuentes, Carlos Zambrano, Dan Uggla, Delmon Young, Derek Jeter, Joey Votto, Rich Harden, Russell Martin, Scott Baker, Troy Percival, Vernon Wells, Vlad Guerrero

commish@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

The 2009 fantasy baseball season is in full swing and our long awaited position-by-position rankings are finally here.  The following rankings are based on a standard mixed-league 5X5 rotisserie format.

Potential Busts:  Bobby Jenks, Chicago White Sox…Somewhere along the way from 2005 - 2008, Jenks turned into a “pitch to contact” type pitcher.  Back in 2005 when he burst on the scene to help lead the White Sox to a World Series title, Jenks was a pure power pitcher with a fastball that averaged 97 MPH.  In 2008, his average fastball was down to less than 94 MPH and he relied more upon a slider and cutter.  As a result, Jenks’s K/9 has decreased every year since 2005 - 11.44, 10.33, 7.75 & 5.55.  The 5.55 in 2008 is by far the lowest K/9 rate of any of the presumed closers in 2009.  While strikeouts do not make the closer, missing bats is a skill set that is of great assistance to any pitcher that is repeatedly placed in high-pressure situations.   The White Sox infield defense also looks below average, so that is another strike against Jenks as a top 10 closer.  His current ADP is #97 overall and #7 for closers.  If I am going to pay the price for a closer in the Top 100/Top 10, I need someone who is going to get saves and K’s.

Other Bust Candidates:  Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets…If it wasn’t for his bloated save numbers, K-Rod would have been looked at as a mediocre closer in 2008.  Draft him in the Top 10; not the Top 3.  Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs…If you have an early March draft, do not assume that he is going to be the everyday closer for the Cubs.  They do have Kevin Gregg in the bullpen with him and just because we in the fantasy world believe he should be the closer, does not mean that Sweet Lou will automatically anoint him as such. 

Potential Sleepers:  Kerry Wood, Cleveland Indians…Sure he has been an injury risk throughout his major league career but Wood’s numbers in 2008 show just how dominant he was in first shot at closing full time.  Wood possesses the type of peripheral numbers that I want in an elite closer:  K/9 over 10 (11.4) and BB/9 under 3 (2.44).  His 6 Blown Saves and slightly high 3.26 ERA in 2008 are marks against him, but if you can get Wood in his current ADP of #14 closer, then you are getting a steal.  Many people have been burned by Wood in the past, but I think 2008 was the beginning of Wood’s reinvention as one of the best closers in the game.

Other Sleeper Candidates:  Heath Bell, San Diego Padres…There is no reason to think that Bell can’t muster up 30 saves or so; even on a team that is likely to be as putrid as the Padres look today.  His average numbers over the past 2 seasons have been very good:   WHIP - 1.072, ERA - 2.73, K/9 8.97, BB/9 3.01.  Throw 28-33 saves on top of that and you have a Top 15 closer.  Frank Francisco, Texas Rangers…Frankie Two Times is the only Rangers pitcher I am even studying this off season.  Another closer with nice strikeout numbers (11.79 K/9) on a bad team.  He was perfect converting save chances from August 27^th on, and C.J. Wilson & Eddie Guardado should not present too much competition.

Best Bet to Jump into the Top 10 a year from now: Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers

Best Bet to Fall from the Top 10 a year from now:  Brian Fuentes, Los Angeles Angels

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Articles 2009 fantasy rankings, Bobby Jenks, Brad Lidge, Brian Fuentes, bust, Carlos Marmol, Francisco Rodriguez, Frank Francisco, Heath Bell, Joe Nathan, Joey Devine, Jonathan Papelbon, Kerry Wood, Mariano Rivera, sleeper

SonofZim@fantasybaseballgeeks.com - 01/17/09

One of the most underrated keys to winning a fantasy league is VALUE. Everyone knows that drafting players late who make a big impact will separate you in the standings. However, taking big risks like drafting David Price as your #1 starter in the 3^rd round is setting yourself up for failure. Even though Price could be a top ten pitcher he has yet to prove it in the big leagues. Price as a #3 or 4, then you are looking at tremendous potential value.

Icon SMI

Let’s go position by position and take a look at some players who will potentially give you great returns on a minimal investment:

C PABLO SANDOVAL: San Francisco GIANTS
For the first time in many years there are actually some offensive catchers worth investing in. Mauer, McCann, Martin and Soto will go relatively early in most drafts as they should. But, keep in mind catchers will have fewer at-bats in a season and after these big four I would avoid a backstop for the first 10 rounds of any draft. Catcher is a great position to really take a risk since so many catchers are offensively below average anyway. Pablo Sandoval is the best type to grab. Slated to play a corner infield slot next year he may qualify at catcher in your league (11 games in 2008) and will rack up a much larger number of plate appearances over a full season. Sandoval had an OPS of 1.126 in the Venezuelan Winter League, over .900 in the minors last year and .847 in a 41 game sample for the San Francisco Giants at the end of ‘08. Now he will not hit .345 as he did at then end of last season, but he will have a guaranteed spot in the middle of the order and has great power potential.

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Articles, Son of Zim Adam Wainwright, Alex Gordon, Brian Fuentes, Chris Davis, Denard Span, Heath Bell, Josh Johnson, Matt Cain, Orlando Cabrera, Pablo Sandoval, Placido Polanco, Ryan Ludwick, Vernon Wells