Fantasy Baseball Geeks

DoubleDown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Week 21 is almost completed and we have some things to discuss for the week ahead. Let’s review the players seeing their fantasy ownership on the move.

Most Added:

Omar Infante is a fantasy goldmine down the stretch as he is on fire and is eligible almost everywhere depending on your leagues rules (possibly 2B, SS, 3B, and OF).  Infante is now officially an everyday player following a sizzling July where he hit .429 for the month.  He has not slowed down torching August with a .362 AVG, 5 HR, 10 RBI, and 3 SB’s.  Infante is legit and should be added in all formats.  Owners should love the versatility to plug him into your lineups wherever you have a need.

Omar Infante - Icon SMI

Coco Crisp always looked like a 20/20 candidate, but it has just never happened.  It probably never will, but he is healthy again and providing solid production of late.  In July he delivered a weak AVG, but chipped in 10 SB’s.  In August he is hitting .322 with 3 HR and 9 SB’s.  He is a must in AL only and would be a fine 5^th OF in deeper mixed formats while he is rolling.

Yuniesky Betancourt is on fire this month whacking 6 jacks with a .324 AVG.  DD actually has no interest in recommending him in anything other than AL only.  This is the type of situation where all of the good he is capable of has just occurred, so you will be picking him up for the regression to his mean…which is mediocrity.

Chase Headley is currently a nice value play in NL only with 3B and OF eligibility.  DD really likes him as a breakout in 2011.  His stats this season have been solid as he is on pace for 13 HR, 20 SB’s, and 92 R.  At just 26 years of age his best years are right in front of him and I still expect him to press 20/20 with room for even more power by 2012.

Wilson Betemit is a decent enough player, but he is a lot like Betancourt.  At this point you just missed the good stuff he provided and now he will revert back to the mean of being a below league average option at 3B.  Take a pass people.

Rich Harden is one of those guys with nasty stuff and a DL record to make you nauseous.  He recently returned from the DL with shoulder tendinitis.  DD likes him in AL only on the road, but is he now a 5 inning pitcher throwing in a hitter’s paradise.  His stats on the season are also weak.  Harden is a definite mixed league streamer, but if he is facing a good lineup at home you might be in for the old cornhole.

Eric Young, Jr. is healthy and forcing his way into the Rockies lineup.  DD would add him in all formats as a 2B or MI because of his prolific speed.  EY2 is an absolute burner who over the course of a full season could challenge for the SB crown.

Ivan Nova is a great name.  Sounds like either a superhero or adult movie star.  Sometimes it is tough to distinguish between the two.  Nova is likely getting a spot start against the White Sox on Sunday for the Yankees.  DD would certainly add him in AL only, but everyone should temper expectations and be careful as he has an inconsistent minor league record and does not project as a top of the line starter.

Koji Uehara finds himself in the closer committee in Baltimore and has notched 2 of them thus far.  The team is atrocious and he does not have the official manager endorsement, so you had better be pretty desperate for saves to have him active.  If you are the Closer on a team that features Ty Wiggington as your #3 hitter you are in for a long season waiting for saves.

Cameron Maybin fits the DD mold to a T.  He was a prospect that was in the eyes of many in front of both Andrew McCutchen and Dexter Fowler in the toolsy CF pecking order.  Flash forward a couple of years and he has lost some of his luster.  Maybin is loaded with tools, however, and the Fish will run him out there on most days for the remainder of this season.  He has speed, power, will be hitting leadoff, and gets my endorsement for NL only and very deep mixed leagues.  DD will be all over him as a 2011 post hype sleeper.

Most Dropped:

Jeremy Hellickson was demoted to the minors to prepare to pitch in relief in September for the Rays.  This removes most of his value for this season, but he remains an elite pitching prospect to target on draft day 2011.

Edinson Volquez is potentially going to be out of the Reds rotation as he has been roughed up during his last couple of starts.  He had TJ surgery about a year ago and the trend is for pitchers to take closer to 2 years to come all the way back.  That would mean he will be a potential steal on draft day 2011.

Javier Vazquez was superb for Atlanta last season, but has stunk up the joint for the Bronx Bombers in his return to the Big Apple.  He is temporarily out of the rotation and his decreased velocity coupled with ineffectiveness make him a suspect option for the duration of 2010.

Whether you love me or hate me I am usually right.  Follow me on Twitter @DDGeek and keep the emails coming: doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Articles, Double Down Cameron Maybin, Chase Headley, Coco Crisp, Edinson Volquez, Eric Young, Ivan Nova, Javier Vazquez, Jeremy Hellickson, Jr., Koji Uehara, Omar Infante, Rich Harden, Wilson Betemit, Yuniesky Betancourt

DoubleDown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Week 16 is almost completed and we have some things to discuss.  Let’s review the players seeing their fantasy ownership on the move.

Most Added:

Chris Perez is back in the Closers saddle for the Indians and this time it might be for good.  Kerry Wood was placed on the DL and Perez is now in control.  He has not given up a run in 9 straight appearances and he has the stuff Closers are made of.  Perez is a big dude with “the look” and flashes the power repertoire to hold the job for years to come.  He stands at 6 foot 4 and from everything I have seen bathing appears optional in his world.  He should be added in all formats for owners looking for saves or body odor.

Gordon Beckham - Icon SMI

Gordon Beckham is a very good baseball player that had a very bad first half.  Typically the cream rises to the top eventually and that is exactly what is happening here.  Beckham is blistering hot since the All-Star break hitting an amazing .500 over 26 at bats.  The slump is behind him and DD expects that experience will actually sure up his future as an annual All-Star candidate.  He should be added in all formats…yes all of them.

Pedro Alvarez has been putting on a show for Pirates fans of late porking 7 jacks in July.  Alvarez is a big boy with a doughy soft frame that will not lead to any stolen base titles.  He has trouble dealing with left handed pitching and this issue does not seem to be isolated as he has struggled against them at all levels of professional ball.  The power is going to be there annually in the 30-35 jacks range, but his ability to make adjustments will determine whether he is can hit .290 or if he ends up closer to .260 with a crapload of strikeouts.  NL only he is a must and deep mixed leagues should run him out there before pitchers begin to exploit the holes in his swing.

Tommy Hunter is an amazing 7-0 on the season for the offensive juggernaut in Texas.  Before you go out and declare him a CY Young candidate…wait for it….wait for it….there are some serious signs that REGRESION is in the cards.  So why do you have to rain on our parade DD?  Sorry, but this reminds me of J.A. Happ last season or perhaps it reminds me of Tommy Hunter himself last season.  He was awesome in July, effective in August, and he got bent over in September.  Hunter has an unsustainable BABIP of .253 to go along with a strand rate of 86.2%.  Wow.  If you couple that with a hitter’s ballpark and DD sees the potential for him to abuse your ratios.  This is a stern warning to be careful.

JJ Putz and Matt Thornton are now both in line for save opportunities for the White Sox as Ozzie Guillen has had it with Bobby Jenks.  Everyone seems to be unified on Team Thornton, but DD wonders if the experience of Putz when paired with a 1.50 ERA and a 10.5 K/9 makes him the likely winner of this duel.  Stay tuned and add them both if you can until Guillen sorts this situation out.

Edinson Volquez is a year away from being what we expect or want him to be.  I mean this is pretty much the standard.  TJ surgery, followed by an inconsistent year, and then the payoff.  See Liriano if you don’t believe me.  We all wanted him (Liriano) to be great last season, but it took a year of lumps to get him close to what he once was.  DD would be very careful running Volquez out there as people learned in his last outing.  He will forever wear the PED tattoo as well.  I maintain that he should be forgiven and allowed to tattoo the phrase D-Bag right over the PED tattoo. 

Most Dropped:

Erik Bedard is likely done for the season.  Anyone who listened to the WWL knows they loved him this year.  That is why you are smart to be reading this and not their self massaging pop culture laden rubbish.  DD does not see a partnership or hostile takeover of the Geeks site in the near future apparently.

Jamie Moyer may have taken it a step further and might be done for his career following the recent elbow issues.  He’s got more wins than he’s got grey hairs and that’s a lot because he’s got his share.  Love the Beasties.

Carlos Silva surprised family members and anyone with amnesia by reminding them that he in general stinks.  Hope you enjoyed the lucky start because this finish will make a billy goat puke.

Whether you love me or hate me I am usually right.  Follow me on Twitter @DDGeek and keep the emails coming: doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Articles, Double Down Carlos Silva, Chris Perez, Edinson Volquez, Erik Bedard, Gordon Beckham, J.J. Putz, Jamie Moyer, Matt Thornton, Pedro Alvarez, Tommy Hunter

SonofZim@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Cincinnati Reds

Joey Votto’s 20 homers and 60 RBI at the break have him in the hunt for the NL MVP. He will continue to hit for an average over .315 and should be considered a keeper in many formats. Brandon Phillips is on pace for another 20/20 season and is a great roto choice at 2B. His .290 average is a surprise so expect some regression there. The Scott Rolen renaissance can’t last so start planning for the future accordingly. Ditto with Jonny Gomes. 8-2 Johnny Cueto has been the ace of the staff, while Bronson Arroyo (on pace for 12+wins yet again) has been the backbone. Rookie Mike Leake has hit the wall, as expected. Move him in a deal and try to redraft him in 2011. Travis Woodand Edinson Volquez will have some good moments down the stretch but they are both spot starters. Francisco Cordero should not be your closer in points leagues. He can destroy a week with one of his hallmark implosions.

St. Louis Cardinals

Be grateful Matt Holliday did not advance in the home run derby. His swing is right where it should be and he is poised for another huge 2nd half. If you are disappointed in Albert Pujols’season, you are spoiled. He is still on pace for a 35/110 season and is due to have some monstrous weeks this summer. Colby Rasmus needs to find some more consistency, but he is showing his 25/25 potential already. He is still a better roto format player at this stage in his career since the totals will be there in the end. When they come is anyone’s guees. Adam Wainwright is the best all around National League pitcher you can own. He has a great offense, he pitches deep into games, posts great ERA and WHIP numbers, as well as a fantastic K/BB ratio of  127/35. He is my Cy Young right now. Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia are great buy lows right now. I think Garcia will continue to be solid despite reaching a career high in innings and Carpenter has had a few bad outings which just proves he is human. See if you can pry him away before he becomes super human again.

Aramis Ramirez - Icon SMI

Chicago Cubs

Alfonso Soriano has become useful once again (15/44). Aramis Ramirez nearly doubled his production from the entire season last week with four homers in seven games. I like him down the stretch, he is an RBI machine and could find himself in Anaheim by year’s end. Derrek Lee (.233 BA) is finally done. Starlin Castro is a nice young player, but not a useful fantasy one yet. Don’t look now but Geovany Soto is on a hot streak. Catcher is weak and if he is available in your league he is worth the shot. Carlos Silva is 9-3 with an ERA of 3.45. He has never been this good, so don’t stick around for the bottom to fall out. Tom Gorzelanny is a second half sleeper and should never have been out of the rotation to begin with. Carlos Zambrano will be gone by the deadline. Same with Ted Lilly and Ryan Dempster. Sean Marshall will break into the rotation by Sept 1st.

Milwaukee Brewers

Casey McGehee cambe back to earth as expected and Prince Fielder rose from the ashes. Fileder is still in my mind just outside the elite first basemen due to the fact he goes dormant for a few scoring periods at a time. Ryan Braun is having his usual summer swoon, and is being dealt far too much in leagues everywhere. He is still the #1 fantasy outfielder in my book. Corey Hart’s 22 dingers are nearly a career high (and the season is only half over). The smart money is on him not being quite so good after the break. Yovani Gallardo’s injury should not be a concern. He has shown glimpes of being a fantasy ace, now he needs to rattle off a dominant 2nd half to earn his ace credentials. John Axford looks like a nice waiver wire saves guy going forward.

Houston Astros

Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman are doing their best to play their way out of Houston and I would take a chance on both. They can still hit and their dry spells are already past them for 2010. Hunter Pence could be left standing alone in that lineup and that is not a good thing. Roy Oswat should also be headed out soon and on a contender he could be an elite option once again. He is 6-10, but has pitched like 10-6 (ERA of 3.04).

Pittsburgh Pirates

Andrew McCutchen is vastly undervalued in fantasy leagues. He has power (8HR) and speed (20SB). See if you can pry him away from another owner. Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez and Brad Lincoln are all now part of the big club and none are ready to help your fantasy season, with the possible exception of Walker.

Articles, Son of Zim Adam Wainwright, Albert Pujols, Alfonso Soriano, Andrew McCutchen, Aramis Ramirez, Brandon Phillips, Bronson Arroyo, Carlos Lee, Carlos Silva, Carlos Zambrano, Casey McGehee, Chris Carpenter, Colby Rasmus, Corey Hart, Derrek Lee, Edinson Volquez, Francisco Cordero, Geovany Soto, Hunter Pence, Jaime Garcia, Joey Votto, John Axford, Johnny Cueto, Jonny Gomes, Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday, Neil Walker, Prince Fielder, Roy Oswalt, Ryan Braun, Ryan Dempster, Scott Rolen, Sean Marshall, Starlin Castro, Ted Lilly, Tom Gorzelanny, Travis Wood, Yovani Gallardo

DoubleDown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Week 11 is almost completed and we have some things to discuss.  Let’s review the players seeing their fantasy ownership on the move.

Most Added:

Jonathon Niese has strung together 3 solid outings in a row going 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA in June thus far.  Niese is a back of the rotation arm with fringy stuff, so please temper your expectations before anointing him a contender to Ubaldo’s upcoming Cy Young crown.  He is worth streaming in deep mixed leagues and should get the weekly start in NL only.

Pedro Alvarez is going to hit a whole bunch of long home runs during his career.  He is also going to strikeout quite a bit and struggle against left handed pitching.  Alvarez is deserving of some hype based on his light tower power and batting practice displays that you should pay admission to witness.  If Alvarez can keep his conditioning in check and at least be adequate against lefties he will be a 3B monster for years to come in the 35 HR a year neighborhood.  DD could see him jacking 15 this year with a .275 AVG, so act accordingly.

Sean Rodriguez was a preseason sleeper who ended up hibernating a bit.  Jason Bartlett’s injury gave him additional playing time, which he took full advantage of.  Now the problem is two fold.  First Bartlett is back and despite his struggles still has a leash.  Second is the emergence of Reid Brignac who I personally prefer in terms of the bat.  Rodriguez is also 0-8 in the last two games, so his role as a utility player looks to be returning.

Aubrey Huff - Icon SMI

Aaron Heilman became essentially the last man standing and has taken over for the battered Chad Qualls as the Closer of the D-Backs.  Heilman could string together a David Aardsma type Cinderella season (doubt that) or he will implode and give way to the recently acquired Sam Demel (don’t doubt this).  For now he should be added in all formats, but if you expect him to keep the role all season you might be suffering from ED.  DD would advise you to check with your Doctor.

Trevor Cahill looked lined up to be the Robin to Brett Anderson’s Batman, but the Anderson injury put a halt to that.  Maybe Cahill will move right past and be the real superhero instead of the sidekick or in this case #2 on the staff.  Cahill is not overpowering, but he does have a potent arsenal and with a 3.23 ERA and 6 wins you have to take notice.  AL only for sure, deep mixed league streamer, and keeper leagues flag him as a future #2.  Locked and loaded.

Edinson Volquez is recovering from offseason TJ surgery as well as completing his 50 game PED suspension.  Sounds like a character guy to me.  More like a D-bag looking for an edge, but whatever.  He has looked fine in his minor league starts, but the recovery from this is typically something that requires a bridge season.  Meaning this year he will take his lumps and next season will be the time to buy low on him.  See Liriano.

Aubrey Huff has done a fine job for the Giants as he has porked 11 HR and has a nifty .305 AVG.  Huff is notoriously streaky, but his scorching May and June are tremendous signs.  DD loves to see a second half hitter snap in the first half because that means value….I’ll Huff and I’ll puff and I’ll blow your house down.  Not by the hair on Pat Burrell’s chinny chin chin.

Most Dropped:

John Ely enjoyed a longer than normal honeymoon period IMO.  This is a #5 that was producing like a #2.  The ERA stands at 4.15 and the beatings are set to continue.  Proceed with caution.

Rich Harden was always good for strikeouts despite the guarantee for a DL stint.  Now the K/9 is down, we still get the DL stint, and he pitches in Texas.  Ouch. AL only should stash, but everyone else should run.

Chad Qualls should claim he is hurt even if he is healthy because there is no excuse for an 8.46 ERA and 4 blown saves.  Aaron Heilman has the keys now and Sam Demel is a sniper waiting in the wings.  I think they have you by the Qualls my friend.

Whether you love me or hate me I am usually right.  Follow me on Twitter @DDGeek and keep the emails coming: doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Articles, Double Down Aaron Heilman, Aubrey Huff, Chad Qualls, Edinson Volquez, John Ely, Jonathon Niese, Pedro Alvarez, Rich Harden, Sean Rodriguez, Trevor Cahill

Unclecharlie@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

The Cincinnati Reds are quietly assembling a roster filled with incredible young talent. A roster that is eerily following the same path as the Tampa Bay Rays a few years ago–the Rays supplied the blueprint and the Reds have taken detailed notes. The blueprint consists of two basic principles, build a dominant starting rotation and fill your lineup with speed and power.

Joey Votto - Icon SMI

On paper the Reds are shaping up nicely (when healthy) from a dominating starting rotation of Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto and now Aroldis Chapman to a starting lineup full of great bats like Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs.

The Reds are tired of hosting the fire sales – tired of shipping away proven talent for prospects who never seem to figure it out. The Reds have now become the aggressor. They beat out the likes of the Red Sox, Yanks, Mets, A’s and Blue Jays in the sweepstakes for Cuban flame thrower Aroldis Chapman.  The Reds signed Chapman to a deal worth six years and $30.25M, a great bargain for a guy whose fastball has been clocked as high as 102 MPH.

The rest of the NL Central better be prepared for the new and improved Reds because their talent level is slowly reaching a boiling point.

Breakout: Joey Votto, 1B

Votto is the spark plug to this team’s offense. Only Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer and Prince Fielder topped Votto’s .981 OPS last year. So how can Votto be considered a breakout candidate this year when you could argue Votto already broke out in 2009? Votto will slip in drafts this year due to the 31 games he missed last season dealing with a personal tragedy. The at bats he lost while suffering from depression and anxiety as a result of the death of his father in 2008 ended up dropping him to the lower tier at the crowded first base position. If healthy, Votto will get 100 more AB’s which could translate into his first 30+ home run season. Take advantage of Votto’s discounted draft value.

Honorable mentions: Homer Bailey, Aroldis Chapman, Drew Stubbs

Read more…

Articles, Uncle Charlie Aaron Harang, Aroldis Chapman, Drew Stubbs, Edinson Volquez, Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, Juan Francisco, Orlando Cabrera, Todd Frazier

doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Most Added

Brian Matusz is the latest arrival from the Orioles horde of solid young arms in the minors. The big lefty earned a victory in his first start against the Tigers going 5 innings, striking out 5, walking 3, and scattered 6 hits. Matusz has a straight low 90’s fastball, so his control and command are going to be a critical element to his long term success. His off-speed pitches are filthy and should lead to plenty of strikeouts. In 2 stops in the minors this season his K/9 stood at an impressive 9.6. This is a player to take a flyer on in all formats and DD would spot start him against weak AL teams.

Derek Holland - Icon SMI

Derek Holland is a smaller left hander in terms of physical stature than Matusz, but his repertoire might actually be better. Mid 90’s fastball – check. Excellent command – check. Solid change-up – check. That is 3 big checks for Holland. His career minor league K/9 stands at 9.9, so there is a ton to like here. Like any young pitcher he will not be an immediate success as evidenced by his last outing where he was beaten by the unassuming Oakland A’s. He should be rostered in all formats and owners should spot start him.

Jason Frasor has value once again as the “on again” Closer in Toronto. He has experience in the role and has been having an outstanding season posting a 2.09 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. He has improved his control this year with a BB% (Percentage of all plate appearances ending in a BB) of 6.8% down from 15.4% in ’08. He should be added by anyone needing saves for the final push.

Read more…

Articles, Double Down Adrian Beltre, Brandon Webb, Brian Matusz, Derek Holland, Edinson Volquez, Jason Frasor, Jason Schmidt, Justin Masterson, Kyle Blanks, Neftali Feliz, Orlando Cabrera, Rajai Davis, Scott Downs, Tom Gorzelanny

draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Dallas Braden - Icon SMI

April is officially in the books. There’s been one week surprises (Emilio Bonifacio), injuries to key players (Josh Hamilton, Brandon Webb) and flat out disappointments (Oliver Perez, Jhonny Peralta).  If you’ve been checking out the site on a regular basis, you have surely read some great analysis on the surprises/disappointments from the past month (If you haven’t been checking out the site, then it’s time to add it your favorites!).  Last week, I took a look at some of the best hitters of April 2008 and compared how they fared in April vs. the rest of the season. This week, I want to take a look at the ERA and Strikeout leaders from April 2008 and 2009 and see what players are primed to make an impact this year.

(Minimum 4 starts)

ERA:

*Smoltz only threw one inning the remainder of season (one start in June)

Read more…

Articles, Draft Guru Cliff Lee, Dallas Braden, Dan Haren, Edinson Volquez, Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vazquez, Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, Wandy Rodriguez, Zack Greinke

phattybo@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

The season is young and it’s hard to get into anything really substantial with statistical analysis given the small sample size but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a lot to be learned from these early season games.  I have watched every game I can so far, thanks in good part to the supreme tease that is the MLB Extra Innings free preview on Direct TV.  This experience was

Nick Adenhart - Icon SMI

illuminating on a number of levels, being able to watch at least pieces of all games with my crazy multiple TV setup made my eyes tired by the end of the day. What grabbed my attention as much as anything was the crazy regional commercials that were played on each telecast.  I have to share with you some of my favorites, as I am constantly humming the theme song of the first one.  Even when I think of it now, it makes me laugh.  My top 3 would be #1, Jack in the Box and the mini sirloin burger which features midgets herding miniature cows. (Video here) #2 some sort of sandwich delivery place called Jimmy John’s giving us something truly tasteless and mildly funny involving car accidents (Video here).  Also deserving mention is the Pittsburgh Pirates ad, selling ticket packages with a guy talking and acting like the Sham-Wow guy, “We can’t do this all day folks… here’s how to order.”  Relax buddy, the Pirates aren’t running out of available seats anytime soon.

Players that have had slow starts that I am worried about include…

Pablo Sandoval was a trendy draft pick, really scuffling so far…

Lastings Milledge is going to be in danger of losing playing time to Elijah Dukes if he keeps playing well and Milledge keeps struggling…(Editor’s Note:  On Tuesday Milledge was sent to AAA, so Dukes’ playing time should be safe for now)

Ricky Nolasco certainly hasn’t started off like his owners wanted.

J.J. Hardy led the Cactus league in hitting and had 2 hits in 22 AB’s in week 1.  Just another reminder to me to stop looking at spring stats for anything…

Read more…

Articles, PhattyBo B.J. Ryan, Brian Fuentes, Carlos Gomez, Chris Davis, David Ortiz, Edinson Volquez, J.J. Hardy, Jason Motte, Justin Upton, Lastings Milledge, Manny Parra, Mike Gonzalez, Nick Adenhart, Pablo Sandoval, Randy Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Russell Martin

commish@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Let me start by asking a question.  Is it a good sign or a bad sign that two of my first four pick were the picks that I liked least?  As I prepared for the draft knowing that I had the #11 overall pick I had previously figured that I would be picking Chase Utley at #11 and then Carlos Beltran when my pick came back around at #14.  I was not however planning on 2 starting pitchers to be taken before I picked and was thus shocked when Mark Teixeira was still sitting there at 11.  So, as the clock wound down I kept going back and forth between Utley & Tex and ultimately decide to take the injured 2B over the 1B who is in the middle of the deepest lineup on the planet.  I basically convinced myself that Utley would be ready a week into the season at the latest and that Tex would have a typical Tex year and not make the jump that many predict him to.  I probably could have taken Tex and then hoped Utley fell to me in the 2^nd round, but the 90 seconds was not enough time to explore that avenue any further.

Ichiro Suzuki - Icon SMI

The other high draft pick that I made that I am not in love with was taking Ichiro Suzuki in the 4^th round at #38.  I have basically been letting Ichiro slide past me in other drafts that I have participated in, however for some reason I decided to grab him this time.  I actually have Alex Rios and Matt Kemp (both selected immediately after Ichiro) ranked higher and I also really like Curtis Granderson & Jacoby Ellsbury around this spot in the draft, but for some reason I was in a batting average loving mood on draft night.  I have also noticed that I have turned in to a stolen base fiend, so since those 2 categories define Ichiro I guess that is why he ended up on my team.  For the record, I see Ichiro losing some of his value in 2009, or worse yet after averaging 688 AB’s over the last 5 years he will probably get hurt, making me hate this pick even more.

As for my philosophy going into the draft, I decided to see how long I could wait to pull the trigger on any kind of pitching, either starting or closing.  By doing this I would presumably assemble a prolific offense, thus annihilating the rest of the league in the 5 hitting categories.  I also wanted to focus on grabbing hitters that were valuable for 2009.  That may seem obvious, but I have a tendency to focus on upside/youth when I draft so I didn’t want to avoid the players in their early to mid 30′s who still have a lot of talent over the 25 year old who has the ability to be as good or better than the already established player:  maybe that helps explain Ichiro.  I would save the youth/upside picks for my pitching staff.  If you wait as long as I did to take pitching you are going to need some wild cards to come up Aces for you.

Here is how it went down:

Read more…

Articles, FBG Writer's League Aramis Ramirez, Chase Utley, Corey Hart, Edinson Volquez, Gavin Floyd, Ichiro Suzuki, Javier Vazquez, John Maine, Josh Hamilton, Kevin Slowey, Matt Cain, Wandy Rodriguez

draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Every spring fantasy owners sift through spring training statistics in order to gauge whether a certain player is going to make a difference in the fantasy world in the upcoming season. It’s often mentioned that spring training stats really don’t matter- that you can’t judge a player’s abilities by using a sample size of 50 or so at-bats in a relaxed, often non-competitive, environment.  Every year there is a Mike Morse (0.492 last spring, only to miss the entire season due to shoulder surgery), Micah Hoffpauir (0.419, but only gets 73 AB for Cubs due to strength of depth) and Jose Cruz (led NL in RBI with 20 only to get released after hitting 0.122 in 49 AB for the Astros). On the flip side, there’s players who have good, or great, springs and parlay that into great seasons. Here are some of the players from last year whose surprise seasons we should have seen coming:

Brett Gardner - Icon SMI

Edinson Volquez, SP Cincinnati Reds:  After spending years in the Rangers farm system, he finally got some time in the bigs in 2007, posting a 7.68 K/9 ratio, but also with a 4.50 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. After an offseason trade to Cincinnati where he was given a chance to win a rotation spot, Volquez posted the second most strikeouts (26) in all of baseball last spring, with the 5^th best ERA in the NL (2.70). By no means did those numbers predict the season he had, but those numbers combined with the opportunity for a rotation spot and the massive amount of praise he received from the Reds staff, should have been a signal for a good upcoming season.

Josh Hamilton, OF Texas Rangers:  Yes, he had a great 2007 in which he finally made the big leagues and made a big splash (0.291, 19, 47, 52 and 3 in only 298 AB). The hype was there for a good year in 2008, but could anyone have predicted what he accomplished (0.305, 32, 130, 98, 9)? Judging by his spring numbers, maybe it wasn’t such a stretch. He was 4^th in the AL in average (0.435), tied for 2^nd in MLB in RBI (19 in 62 AB), 4^th in MLB in slugging (0.758) with an OBP of 0.470. He had an everyday job, in Texas, so there was no reason for him to not take the next step.

Andre Ethier, OF Los Angeles Dodgers:  Granted, he did not have a great 2008 (20, 77, 90, 0.305, 0.501 SLG), but it was a nice, steady improvement upon his 2007 season (13, 64, 50, 0.284, 0.452 SLG). During spring training, he hit 0.377 (9^th in NL), with 6 HR (tied for 1^st), 18 RBI (tied for 2nd) and an OBP of 0.490 (3^rd).  He didn’t necessarily have a job to start the year (with the Andruw Jones experiment still happening), but once he got his chance, he made it count, going on to hit 0.335 after the All-Star Break, putting up near identical numbers to Pre-All Star Break in about 90 less AB.

With only about half the games played so far, it’s still a little early to take much from spring training stats. However, by continuing to monitor specific players and teams, there could be value in taking a flier on a spring training stud.  Here are a few players to keep an eye who are having solid spring trainings thus far (stats as of 3/14):

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Articles, Draft Guru Andre Ethier, Brett Gardner, Edinson Volquez, Joe Mather, Jordan Schafer, Josh Hamilton