Fantasy Baseball Geeks

doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

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Brian Matusz is the latest arrival from the Orioles horde of solid young arms in the minors. The big lefty earned a victory in his first start against the Tigers going 5 innings, striking out 5, walking 3, and scattered 6 hits. Matusz has a straight low 90’s fastball, so his control and command are going to be a critical element to his long term success. His off-speed pitches are filthy and should lead to plenty of strikeouts. In 2 stops in the minors this season his K/9 stood at an impressive 9.6. This is a player to take a flyer on in all formats and DD would spot start him against weak AL teams.

Derek Holland - Icon SMI

Derek Holland is a smaller left hander in terms of physical stature than Matusz, but his repertoire might actually be better. Mid 90’s fastball – check. Excellent command – check. Solid change-up – check. That is 3 big checks for Holland. His career minor league K/9 stands at 9.9, so there is a ton to like here. Like any young pitcher he will not be an immediate success as evidenced by his last outing where he was beaten by the unassuming Oakland A’s. He should be rostered in all formats and owners should spot start him.

Jason Frasor has value once again as the “on again” Closer in Toronto. He has experience in the role and has been having an outstanding season posting a 2.09 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. He has improved his control this year with a BB% (Percentage of all plate appearances ending in a BB) of 6.8% down from 15.4% in ’08. He should be added by anyone needing saves for the final push.

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Articles, Double Down Adrian Beltre, Brandon Webb, Brian Matusz, Derek Holland, Edinson Volquez, Jason Frasor, Jason Schmidt, Justin Masterson, Kyle Blanks, Neftali Feliz, Orlando Cabrera, Rajai Davis, Scott Downs, Tom Gorzelanny

draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Dallas Braden - Icon SMI

April is officially in the books. There’s been one week surprises (Emilio Bonifacio), injuries to key players (Josh Hamilton, Brandon Webb) and flat out disappointments (Oliver Perez, Jhonny Peralta).  If you’ve been checking out the site on a regular basis, you have surely read some great analysis on the surprises/disappointments from the past month (If you haven’t been checking out the site, then it’s time to add it your favorites!).  Last week, I took a look at some of the best hitters of April 2008 and compared how they fared in April vs. the rest of the season. This week, I want to take a look at the ERA and Strikeout leaders from April 2008 and 2009 and see what players are primed to make an impact this year.

(Minimum 4 starts)

ERA:

*Smoltz only threw one inning the remainder of season (one start in June)

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Articles, Draft Guru Cliff Lee, Dallas Braden, Dan Haren, Edinson Volquez, Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vazquez, Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, Wandy Rodriguez, Zack Greinke

phattybo@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

The season is young and it’s hard to get into anything really substantial with statistical analysis given the small sample size but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a lot to be learned from these early season games.  I have watched every game I can so far, thanks in good part to the supreme tease that is the MLB Extra Innings free preview on Direct TV.  This experience was

Nick Adenhart - Icon SMI

illuminating on a number of levels, being able to watch at least pieces of all games with my crazy multiple TV setup made my eyes tired by the end of the day. What grabbed my attention as much as anything was the crazy regional commercials that were played on each telecast.  I have to share with you some of my favorites, as I am constantly humming the theme song of the first one.  Even when I think of it now, it makes me laugh.  My top 3 would be #1, Jack in the Box and the mini sirloin burger which features midgets herding miniature cows. (Video here) #2 some sort of sandwich delivery place called Jimmy John’s giving us something truly tasteless and mildly funny involving car accidents (Video here).  Also deserving mention is the Pittsburgh Pirates ad, selling ticket packages with a guy talking and acting like the Sham-Wow guy, “We can’t do this all day folks… here’s how to order.”  Relax buddy, the Pirates aren’t running out of available seats anytime soon.

Players that have had slow starts that I am worried about include…

Pablo Sandoval was a trendy draft pick, really scuffling so far…

Lastings Milledge is going to be in danger of losing playing time to Elijah Dukes if he keeps playing well and Milledge keeps struggling…(Editor’s Note:  On Tuesday Milledge was sent to AAA, so Dukes’ playing time should be safe for now)

Ricky Nolasco certainly hasn’t started off like his owners wanted.

J.J. Hardy led the Cactus league in hitting and had 2 hits in 22 AB’s in week 1.  Just another reminder to me to stop looking at spring stats for anything…

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Articles, PhattyBo B.J. Ryan, Brian Fuentes, Carlos Gomez, Chris Davis, David Ortiz, Edinson Volquez, J.J. Hardy, Jason Motte, Justin Upton, Lastings Milledge, Manny Parra, Mike Gonzalez, Nick Adenhart, Pablo Sandoval, Randy Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Russell Martin

commish@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Let me start by asking a question.  Is it a good sign or a bad sign that two of my first four pick were the picks that I liked least?  As I prepared for the draft knowing that I had the #11 overall pick I had previously figured that I would be picking Chase Utley at #11 and then Carlos Beltran when my pick came back around at #14.  I was not however planning on 2 starting pitchers to be taken before I picked and was thus shocked when Mark Teixeira was still sitting there at 11.  So, as the clock wound down I kept going back and forth between Utley & Tex and ultimately decide to take the injured 2B over the 1B who is in the middle of the deepest lineup on the planet.  I basically convinced myself that Utley would be ready a week into the season at the latest and that Tex would have a typical Tex year and not make the jump that many predict him to.  I probably could have taken Tex and then hoped Utley fell to me in the 2^nd round, but the 90 seconds was not enough time to explore that avenue any further.

Ichiro Suzuki - Icon SMI

The other high draft pick that I made that I am not in love with was taking Ichiro Suzuki in the 4^th round at #38.  I have basically been letting Ichiro slide past me in other drafts that I have participated in, however for some reason I decided to grab him this time.  I actually have Alex Rios and Matt Kemp (both selected immediately after Ichiro) ranked higher and I also really like Curtis Granderson & Jacoby Ellsbury around this spot in the draft, but for some reason I was in a batting average loving mood on draft night.  I have also noticed that I have turned in to a stolen base fiend, so since those 2 categories define Ichiro I guess that is why he ended up on my team.  For the record, I see Ichiro losing some of his value in 2009, or worse yet after averaging 688 AB’s over the last 5 years he will probably get hurt, making me hate this pick even more.

As for my philosophy going into the draft, I decided to see how long I could wait to pull the trigger on any kind of pitching, either starting or closing.  By doing this I would presumably assemble a prolific offense, thus annihilating the rest of the league in the 5 hitting categories.  I also wanted to focus on grabbing hitters that were valuable for 2009.  That may seem obvious, but I have a tendency to focus on upside/youth when I draft so I didn’t want to avoid the players in their early to mid 30’s who still have a lot of talent over the 25 year old who has the ability to be as good or better than the already established player:  maybe that helps explain Ichiro.  I would save the youth/upside picks for my pitching staff.  If you wait as long as I did to take pitching you are going to need some wild cards to come up Aces for you.

Here is how it went down:

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Articles, FBG Writer's League Aramis Ramirez, Chase Utley, Corey Hart, Edinson Volquez, Gavin Floyd, Ichiro Suzuki, Javier Vazquez, John Maine, Josh Hamilton, Kevin Slowey, Matt Cain, Wandy Rodriguez

draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Every spring fantasy owners sift through spring training statistics in order to gauge whether a certain player is going to make a difference in the fantasy world in the upcoming season. It’s often mentioned that spring training stats really don’t matter- that you can’t judge a player’s abilities by using a sample size of 50 or so at-bats in a relaxed, often non-competitive, environment.  Every year there is a Mike Morse (0.492 last spring, only to miss the entire season due to shoulder surgery), Micah Hoffpauir (0.419, but only gets 73 AB for Cubs due to strength of depth) and Jose Cruz (led NL in RBI with 20 only to get released after hitting 0.122 in 49 AB for the Astros). On the flip side, there’s players who have good, or great, springs and parlay that into great seasons. Here are some of the players from last year whose surprise seasons we should have seen coming:

Brett Gardner - Icon SMI

Edinson Volquez, SP Cincinnati Reds:  After spending years in the Rangers farm system, he finally got some time in the bigs in 2007, posting a 7.68 K/9 ratio, but also with a 4.50 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. After an offseason trade to Cincinnati where he was given a chance to win a rotation spot, Volquez posted the second most strikeouts (26) in all of baseball last spring, with the 5^th best ERA in the NL (2.70). By no means did those numbers predict the season he had, but those numbers combined with the opportunity for a rotation spot and the massive amount of praise he received from the Reds staff, should have been a signal for a good upcoming season.

Josh Hamilton, OF Texas Rangers:  Yes, he had a great 2007 in which he finally made the big leagues and made a big splash (0.291, 19, 47, 52 and 3 in only 298 AB). The hype was there for a good year in 2008, but could anyone have predicted what he accomplished (0.305, 32, 130, 98, 9)? Judging by his spring numbers, maybe it wasn’t such a stretch. He was 4^th in the AL in average (0.435), tied for 2^nd in MLB in RBI (19 in 62 AB), 4^th in MLB in slugging (0.758) with an OBP of 0.470. He had an everyday job, in Texas, so there was no reason for him to not take the next step.

Andre Ethier, OF Los Angeles Dodgers:  Granted, he did not have a great 2008 (20, 77, 90, 0.305, 0.501 SLG), but it was a nice, steady improvement upon his 2007 season (13, 64, 50, 0.284, 0.452 SLG). During spring training, he hit 0.377 (9^th in NL), with 6 HR (tied for 1^st), 18 RBI (tied for 2nd) and an OBP of 0.490 (3^rd).  He didn’t necessarily have a job to start the year (with the Andruw Jones experiment still happening), but once he got his chance, he made it count, going on to hit 0.335 after the All-Star Break, putting up near identical numbers to Pre-All Star Break in about 90 less AB.

With only about half the games played so far, it’s still a little early to take much from spring training stats. However, by continuing to monitor specific players and teams, there could be value in taking a flier on a spring training stud.  Here are a few players to keep an eye who are having solid spring trainings thus far (stats as of 3/14):

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Articles, Draft Guru Andre Ethier, Brett Gardner, Edinson Volquez, Joe Mather, Jordan Schafer, Josh Hamilton