Fantasy Baseball Geeks

doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

In the article below I will make observations regarding recent mock draft results of relief pitchers.  I will be using the current ADP results from our friends over at www.mockdraftcentral.com as a guide for my rambling analysis in this report.

Jonathan Broxton - Icon SMI

Relief Pitchers: Top 5

There is an argument that Mariano Rivera (#2) should be drafted ahead of Jonathan Papelbon (#1), but for me it makes some sense to take Pap.  It is a fact that no player is going to pitch in a dominating fashion forever and Mo is at some point going to decline.  Playing 2010 at age 40 is a risk whether anyone wants to admit it or not.  Papelbon did see his walks increase to a career high 24 last season, but his other stats remained stellar.  You really cannot go wrong here, but DD feels the drafters got this right and Pap should be ahead of Rivera.  The Ox Jonathan Broxton (#3) will challenge for #1 status without question this season as he continues to evolve and mature.  He has had some minor durability issues that are a reason to worry, but 117 strikeouts in 76 innings are filthy.  That K stat for me makes him a legit contender to be the #1 Closer on the fantasy market and I would not hesitate to draft him as such.  Joe Nathan (#4) is a red flag Closer for DD this season.  Nathan had a more mortal second half of the year as he posted a 2.88 ERA after the break as opposed to a 1.31 ERA during the first half.  There was a noticeable drop in velocity as well.  Consider that to be strike 1.  I personally watched the Yankees dismantle him in the playoffs on TV.  That type of implosion can stick with a player even one with a lot of experience like Nathan.  Strike 2.  During the offseason he has surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow.  Strike 3.  Nobody is talking about this or hedging their bets on him as he is atop the rankings lists and I for one would be very wary of taking him too early.

Picks 6-10: Heath Bell (#7) is a major risk due to the high likelihood that he gets traded from the Padres this season and ends up being a set-up man for a contender.  Bell has been terrific as a Closer, but the chances of him being dealt at some point being close to 100% make this too high a price to pay for him on draft day.  Brian Fuentes (#9) must feel like he needs eyes in the back of his head.  He is not a prototypical closer with electric stuff, so his struggles last season should come as no surprise.  The Angels are paying him a lot of money, but Fernando Rodney is lurking should he falter.  Then the discussion will turn to who is next in line once Rodney implodes, which will also happen.

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Articles, Double Down Billy Wagner, Brian Fuentes, Chad Qualls, Chris Perez, David Aardsma, Drew Storen, Fernando Rodney, Heath Bell, J.J. Putz, J.P. Howell, Jason Motte, Jim Johnson, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Broxton, Jonathan Papelbon, Kerry Wood, LaTroy Hawkins, Mariano Rivera, Mike Adams, Rafael Soriano, Ryan Franklin, Takashi Saito

Birdman@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Another week, another episode of the Revolving Door!

Not too many closer controversies this week, as players are starting to nail down their roles. But give it a week, and I bet there will be plenty of roles up for grabs.

Brandon Morrow - Icon SMI

Seattle Mariners

Who’s In – Brandon Morrow

Who’s Out – David Aardsma

Morrow’s only appeared in two games in the past week, but he’s only given up a hit and two walks. Aardsma’s been great as well, but it seems manager Don Wakamatsu has relegated him to the set-up role. As long as Morrow and Aardsma continue their hot starts, Morrow’s the man in the 9^th.

Chicago Cubs

Who’s In – Kevin Gregg

Who’s Out – Carlos Marmol

Gregg has been unhittable the past week, only giving up one walk while striking out five. Marmol picked up a save, but he also blew one this week. Right now, it’s Gregg to close out games, but always keep an eye on the North Siders, as Marmol is definitely nipping at his heels.

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Articles, Birdman Brandon Morrow, Carlos Marmol, Chris Perez, David Aardsma, Jason Motte, Kevin Gregg, Ryan Franklin

doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Catcher

Most Added: Joe Mauer has been rehabbing his injured back and should begin seeing live action in the minors soon with a chance to return to big league action by the end of the month. He is a must add in all formats as a career .317 BA in the catcher slot should not be any waiver wire.

Most Dropped: A.J. Pierzynski has one of the more interesting stat lines I have seen so far this season: 29 AB, 0 Runs, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 SB, and a .275 BA. He has 8 hits, but none have resulted in anything of value other than the lonely SB. He is barely in my Top 20 catchers, so unless you are in AL only or require two backstops you can drop him. He is a first class jerk anyway.

Nick Swisher - Icon SMI

First Base

Most Added: Hopefully my readers have listened to what I have preached all preseason as well as in my column last week with regard to Nick Swisher. Swish is on fire hitting over .400 with 4 HR and 11 RBI. He has actually been hitting cleanup after Tex. Think about that people. This is a guy that went undrafted in many leagues that is hitting 4^th for the NY Yankees. The Xavier Nady injury solidifies his playing time making him a must add in all formats. He might end up hitting .250, but 30 HR and 100 RBI are very realistic expectations.

Most Dropped: Todd Helton is getting paid over 16 million dollars to play once in a while and hit for minimal power. He is plodding along with a .200 BA as I write this, but DD expects him to eventually hit .300 albeit in fewer AB’s than I would like. In deep leagues and NL only you have to stick with him.

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Articles, Double Down A.J. Pierzynski, Alex Gordon, B.J. Upton, Elijah Dukes, Emmanuel Burris, Ervin Santana, Fausto Carmona, Ichiro, Jarrod Washburn, Jason Motte, Joe Mauer, John Lackey, John Smoltz, Kosuke Fukudome, Lastings Milledge, Marco Scutaro, Mike Aviles, Nick Swisher, Nyjer Morgan, Orlando Hudson, Randy Johnson, Ryan Franklin, Todd Helton, Tommy Hanson, Trevor Hoffman, Troy Glaus, Xavier Nady, Zach Duke

phattybo@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

The season is young and it’s hard to get into anything really substantial with statistical analysis given the small sample size but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a lot to be learned from these early season games.  I have watched every game I can so far, thanks in good part to the supreme tease that is the MLB Extra Innings free preview on Direct TV.  This experience was

Nick Adenhart - Icon SMI

illuminating on a number of levels, being able to watch at least pieces of all games with my crazy multiple TV setup made my eyes tired by the end of the day. What grabbed my attention as much as anything was the crazy regional commercials that were played on each telecast.  I have to share with you some of my favorites, as I am constantly humming the theme song of the first one.  Even when I think of it now, it makes me laugh.  My top 3 would be #1, Jack in the Box and the mini sirloin burger which features midgets herding miniature cows. (Video here) #2 some sort of sandwich delivery place called Jimmy John’s giving us something truly tasteless and mildly funny involving car accidents (Video here).  Also deserving mention is the Pittsburgh Pirates ad, selling ticket packages with a guy talking and acting like the Sham-Wow guy, “We can’t do this all day folks… here’s how to order.”  Relax buddy, the Pirates aren’t running out of available seats anytime soon.

Players that have had slow starts that I am worried about include…

Pablo Sandoval was a trendy draft pick, really scuffling so far…

Lastings Milledge is going to be in danger of losing playing time to Elijah Dukes if he keeps playing well and Milledge keeps struggling…(Editor’s Note:  On Tuesday Milledge was sent to AAA, so Dukes’ playing time should be safe for now)

Ricky Nolasco certainly hasn’t started off like his owners wanted.

J.J. Hardy led the Cactus league in hitting and had 2 hits in 22 AB’s in week 1.  Just another reminder to me to stop looking at spring stats for anything…

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Articles, PhattyBo B.J. Ryan, Brian Fuentes, Carlos Gomez, Chris Davis, David Ortiz, Edinson Volquez, J.J. Hardy, Jason Motte, Justin Upton, Lastings Milledge, Manny Parra, Mike Gonzalez, Nick Adenhart, Pablo Sandoval, Randy Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Russell Martin

birdman@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Not every team is lucky enough to have a Mariano Rivera or a Joe Nathan; one of those closers that end the game pretty much the second they step on the mound.  Likewise, not every fantasy owner is fortunate enough to have these pitchers on their roster, and must check every single day to see if there is a closer available on the waiver wire.

Carlos Marmol - Icon SMI

So this, ladies and gentlemen, is the first edition of The Revolving Door.  Each week, I’ll update you on who’s in, who’s out, and who you should be watching.

Chicago Cubs

Who’s In - Kevin Gregg, Carlos Marmol

Who’s Out - Kevin Gregg, Carlos Marmol

No, that’s not a typo.  The Gregg Experiment went great…for one game.  The former Marlin blew a save on Friday…and on Saturday Marmol got the call to close out the game.  While Gregg is technically the closer for now, if you’ve got Marmol hold on to him, as it will only take one bad week from Gregg for the North Siders to call for his head.

Seattle Mariners

Who’s In - David Aardsma, Brandon Morrow

Who’s Out - David Aardsma, Brandon Morrow

Again, not a typo.  The Mariners have tapped both Aardsma and Morrow to close out games for the first week.  My money’s on Morrow being the closer for the majority of Seattle’s games.  However, if you’ve got an extra spot on your roster, go ahead and pick up Aardsma, not only for a backup plan, but if your league counts holds, then he’ll be good for those as well.

St. Louis Cardinals

Who’s In - Everyone in Tony La Russa’s bullpen

Who’s Out - Jason Motte, for now

Anyone who knows LaRussa knows the man loves tinkering with his team, ESPECIALLY with his bullpen.  So when Motte blew an Opening Day save opportunity, it gave LaRussa the excuse to determine the closer based on that night’s matchup.  Chris Perez and Jason Motte are still the best options to save games, but the former is in Triple-A, and the latter hasn’t gotten a save opportunity since Opening Day.

Here are the current options to close out games in the Gateway City: Kyle McClellan, Dennys Reyes, Ryan Franklin, Josh Kinney

Detroit Tigers

Who’s In - Fernando Rodney

Who’s Out - Brandon Lyon

Lyon blew his first chance in the 2^nd game of the season, and Jim Leyland has responded by handing the ball over to Rodney for two straight save opportunities.  My money says Rodney won’t last the whole season, as he’s got control issues, but for right now, he’s the man in the Motor City.  Lyon owners shouldn’t get rid of him just yet, as Rodney could implode any minute.

Atlanta Braves

Who’s In - Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano

Who’s Out - Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano

Bobby Cox has a good problem on his hands with this double-barreled closing opportunity.  The closing abilities of both pitchers will allow Cox to play the matchups.  It might be maddening to those who have one or the other, but look at it this way…at least you’re getting saves from them.

Articles, Birdman Brandon Lyon, Brandon Morrow, Carlos Marmol, David Aardsma, Fernando Rodney, Jason Motte, Kevin Gregg, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano

doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com
Welcome back everyone. For owners in leagues that have weekly scoring the Sunday night game could lock your roster a day earlier than usual, so I hope you read this in time.

Catcher

Most Added: Chris Snyder has been getting some love on the waiver wire as owners hope his fractured nut is intact this season on his way to poking 20 jacks. He is worth a look in deeper leagues for sure.

Todd Helton - Icon SMI

Most Dropped: Jeff Clement was the latest victim of poor roster management as he was deported to AAA by the Mariners. Clement is 25 and more than willing to yank 20+ HR, but the Mariners are stuck with the laughable contract of Kenji Johjima behind the dish and the Safeco seat filler Ken Griffey, Jr. at DH. He is still an asset in long term keeper leagues, but you can cut him everywhere else. Johjima is actually a nice sleeper for fantasy, so this is more of an assault on his contract and blocking Clement than his potential value.

First Base

Most Added: Todd Helton appears healthy this Spring and has shown surprising power. His back will always be an issue, but if he gets 400 AB’s and hits over .300 you should consider him for a bench spot at the very least. Chad Tracy is seeing a slight increase in ownership, which I feel will continue to surge. Tracy is healthy, starting at 1B, and primed for a rebound season. Great value for deep mixed leagues and NL only as the guy hit over .300 with 27 HR in 2005 and will start this season at age 28.

Most Dropped: Gaby Sanchez entered Spring Training as the favorite to start at 1B for the Fish and now finds himself back in the minors after failing miserably to impress. It is safe to drop Gaby in all formats. He will soon be passed by über prospect Logan Morrison anyway, so you can punt.
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Articles, Double Down Blake DeWitt, Bobby Crosby, Brad Zeigler, Brett Anderson, Brett Gardner, Carlos Villanueva, Chad Tracy, Chris Perez, Chris Snyder, Daniel Murphy, David Freese, Dexter Fowler, Eric Byrnes, Felipe Lopez, Gaby Sanchez, Ian Snell, Jason Motte, Jeff Clement, Jordan Zimmermann, Kenshin Kawakami, Kevin Gregg, Khalil Greene, Scott Baker, Scott Downs, Todd Helton, Trevor Cahill, Trevor Hoffman, Troy Glaus

Q:  It’s prediction time!  Who do we think will be the Hitting MVP?  Pitching MVP?  Impact Rookie?  Biggest Sleeper?  Biggest Bust?

A:  Double Down: 

Hitting MVP:  Carlos Beltran, OF New York Mets…Beltran is a pretty steady producer, but something tells me we are going to see a dual fantasy and MLB MVP out of him in 2009.  He is not a bona fide 1st Rounder, but you should draft him like one.

Impact Rookie:  Matt Wieters, C Baltimore Orioles…and it is not even close.  It would be easy to get cute and not pick Wieters, but the guy is going to mash on Day 1 when he arrives and you can hand him the ROY trophy right now.  Snider will get votes, but he might lead the league in strikeouts.

Biggest Sleeper:  Adam Lind, OF Toronto Blue Jays…Lind is so underrated.  The guy can hit .300 with 25 HR pop and he has the DH job in the bag.  He sort of gets lost during drafts, but you should not forget about him.  Get him as a 5th OF and you will be a happy camper.
Biggest Bust:  Dustin Pedroia, 2B Boston Red Sox…The reigning AL MVP is my pick because I want everyone to hate me.  DD is not saying he is not going to be a very solid fantasy producer, but rather he not going to produce the same results as last season (SB’s, HR, RBI, or .320 BA all go down) making him a bust relative to his cost.  You can hate me and mock me if you want, but don’t come crying to me when I am right.

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Articles, Geeks Q & A Adam Jones, Adam Lind, Albert Pujols, Alex Rios, Alexei Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Brandon Wood, Cameron Maybin, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Lee, Chase Utley, Chris Carpenter, Chris Davis, Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, David Price, Dexter Fowler, Dustin Pedroia, Elijah Dukes, Felipe Lopez, Felix Hernandez, Francisco Liriano, Jake Peavy, Jason Motte, Johan Santana, Jonathan Papelbon, Jordan Zimmermann, Josh Beckett, Juan Rivera, Kevin Slowey, Khalil Greene, Manny Ramirez, Matt Cain, Matt Garza, Matt Holliday, Matt Kemp, Matt Wieters, Mike Jacobs, Prince Fielder, Robinson Cano, Shairon Martis, Shin-Soo Choo, Tim Lincecum, Tommy Hanson, Travis Snider, Vlad Guerrero, Yovani Gallardo

Q:  Which pitcher who currently does NOT have a closers job will be the most valuable reliever by the end of the season?

A:  Draft Guru:  Jose Arredondo, Los Angeles Angels…Heading into 2009, I expect Jose Arredondo to be the most valuable reliever who does not enter the year as the closer. First of all, the Angels signed Brian Fuentes, who lost his job as Rockies closer only to regain it, to serve as their closer, so there is saves potential for Arredondo. Secondly, in his first full season, Arredondo had nearly a strikeout per inning (55 in 61 innings), with a 1.62 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He also had 10 wins. His minor league numbers indicate that he has great potential and last year he proved he belongs in the majors. In 2009, he could end up with 70+ K’s with a sub 2.00 ERA and a WHIP around 1.00. That’s not taking into account the Holds and Wins he will rack up in middle relief, as well as any saves he picks up when/if Fuentes fails.

Takashi Saito - Icon SMI

A:  Raven:  Takashi Saito, Boston Red Sox…Closer value from pitchers who enter the season in some other role is always difficult to predict because a huge part of the equation is opportunity. If the current closer stays healthy and performs at least reasonably well, the other option might never get the chance. If you own Sherrill, obviously you want Chris Ray (who I think will return in a big way), and if you have Brad Ziegler, owning the much better option  Joey Devine is almost a must. But who could sneak into a value scenario with little or no obvious opportunity today? I’ll throw out Takashi Saito as someone to watch. He is behind Jonathon Papelbon who might be considered the best closer in the game. But there have been quiet hints that Papelbon may not be quite as durable as the Red Sox would hope - does signing a pitcher like Saito make sense unless you feel the need to pay very high insurance premiums? If Papelbon should struggle or go down, Saito would step easily into that gig and his value would skyrocket. And, if Papelbon does hold up, what would teams with extremely shaky closer situations who find themselves in the hunt pay for someone with Saito’s resume? Do you think Tony LaRussa might push to get someone like Saito? Sure, he’s a bit of a stretch, but Saito could give you very solid numbers without closing and *if* opportunity knocks … 

A:  Uncle Charlie:  Grant Balfour, Tampa Bay Rays… I think Percival has the best chance out of the active closers of getting hurt or losing his job. The Rays are a serious contender now and the save opportunities will be there all season. For some reason it seems Joe Maddon is not a believer of Balfour in the closer role but his 12.65 K/9, 1.54 ERA and 0.89 WHIP from a year ago suggests he deserves an opportunity to close out some games for the Rays. The signing of Jason Isringhausen throws this log jam into an even deeper complication but I think when it is all said and done Percival losses his job or gets hurt mid-season and Balfour steps in and closes at least 15-20 games out for the Rays. If he can mirror anything relatively close to last years stats, he becomes a top 5 closer come playoff time.

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Articles, Geeks Q & A Carlos Marmol, Chris Perez, Chris Ray, Grant Balfour, Hong-Chih Kuo, Jason Motte, Jose Arredondo, Jose Ceda, Kevin Gregg, Manny Corpas, Takashi Saito

draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Of all the positions to try to forecast for any upcoming baseball season, relief pitcher has to be the hardest. Last year 22 pitchers had at least 20 saves. Of these 22, 12 either spent time on the DL, did not start the year as closer or did not end the year as closer.  With such volatility in terms of saves, there are some stats that can be a good indicator of a relief pitcher’s potential. Let’s take a look at some of the strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) leaders of 2008 and how they can help your team in 2009.

Frank Francisco - Icon SMI

Using a minimum of 10 innings pitched, the league leader for K/9 for relief pitchers was Jason Motte (STL). A known commodity to only savvy fantasy owners, Motte is in line to compete with Chris Perez to become the Cardinals opening day closer. Motte posted a K/9 ratio of 13.09 (in 11 innings), nearly a half strikeout (0.43) more than the next player (Grant Balfour, 12.66), though Balfour did pitch 47 more innings. In 65 2/3 innings at AAA in 2008, Motte had 110 strikeouts (an absurd 15.08 K/9) with an ERA of 3.17, WHIP of 1.32 and 25 walks. Even if he does not win the closers job out-right, look for Motte to have a solid position in the bullpen and pick up some holds and saves along the way.

Another guy to keep an eye on is Frank Francisco of the Rangers. He boasted a K/9 ratio of 11.79, ranking ahead of names such as Carlos Marmol (11.75), Jonathan Broxton (11.48) and Kerry Wood (11.40). Though Broxton and Wood are solidified closers, Francisco seems to be the favorite for the closer’s role in Texas. Even though C.J. Wilson missed the last month of the season due to elbow surgery and is expected to ready by opening day, Francisco may have pitched himself into the closer’s role. Wilson had 24 saves in 2008, but he also had a 6.02 ERA with 41 K’s and 27 walks in 46 2/3 innings. In contrast, Francisco had 81 K’s and 26 walks in 63 1/3 innings. Francisco picked up 12 holds during the season, and once he ascended to the closer’s role, went 5 for his last 5 in save opportunities and did not give up a run in his last 13 appearances. Francisco is a great pick as a sleeper closer and can be a great source of K’s, regardless of his role.
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Articles, Draft Guru Chris Perez, Dan Wheeler, Frank Francisco, Jason Motte, K/9, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Perez, Scott Eyre