Fantasy Baseball Geeks

sonofzim@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

“Strikeouts are boring. Besides they’re fascist.” - Crash Davis Bull Durham

From a real life baseball perspective this is probably true, but in fantasy I like my pitchers like Mussolini!! The more K’s the better! Some leagues value pitcher strikeouts more than others. One thing is clear if you own a top tier strikeout specialist (or 2) you are probably still in the hunt for a fantasy crown.

Pitchers like Justin Verlander and Tim Lincecum make their own good luck. They limit base runners, which reduces runs scored, which lowers ERA and ultimately leads to wins. Here is a list of the top MLB strikeout artists year-to-date:

Building your rotation around these types of powers arms will provide explosiveness in head-to-head leagues. A two-start Dan Haren or Zack Greinke week can be an automatic win for you. The surprising name on this list is Adam Wainwright who has really stepped up his game this year and become an elite starter. Felix Hernandez is turning into “The King” he was prophesized to be three years ago, while Jon Lester is taking a step closer to being the best lefty in the game. And lastly, Javier Vazquez has proven there is life after the American League.

Tim Lincecum - Icon SMI

The other great thing about strikeout pitchers is when they have an “off night” they still find a way to come out on the positive end when it comes to points. I have had several starts from Greinke since the all-star break that have resulted in a loss for the Royals, but double digit positive points for Zack.

What separates the best of the best is K/BB ratio. That is why Roy Halladay, Greinke, and Haren are so valuable and conversely why Chad Billingsley has had his ups and downs. Some strikeout pitchers tend to walk too many hitters because they want to strikeout the world, like Ubaldo Jimenez for instance. This will lead to increased pitch counts and shorter outings. Guess what happens then? The fate of your win rests in the hands of a bullpen. Verlander suffered from this plight last season, but in 2009 he has only 46BB in 159IP, making him a Cy Young contender.

We are seeing a rebirth of the dominant starter in the post-PED era. Fantasy owners must take heed and realize 50 homerun seasons are a thing of the past, but 300K seasons are on the comeback trail!

After Pujols and Hanley, gimme Timmy every time!

HELPFUL HINT: You can’t always control whether a pitcher comes away with a W when he deserves it. All you can do is monitor his secondary numbers. THAT is what makes a fantasy ace.

Articles, Son of Zim Adam Wainwright, Chad Billingsley, Dan Haren, Felix Hernandez, Javier Vazquez, Jon Lester, Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Ubaldo Jimenez, Zack Greinke

sonofzim@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Every year there are winning teams that have key players that were drafted late or undrafted all together that end up becoming integral pieces of a fantasy crown. Here are some players that have performed better than expected over the first few months of the season.

Shin-Soo Choo, OF Clevaland Indians…Many owners expected Choo to be a flash in the pan, but not the Zim. (check the record) Choo has a nice combination of speed and power with a good average and nice on base skills to boot. How many guys have an OPS over .850? Choo does. He is on pace for a quiet 100 RBI 100 R 30 SB season. Hmmm…sounds a lot like a Grady Sizemore stat line at a 1/3 of the cost.

Nelson Cruz - Icon SMI

Nelson Cruz, OF Texas Rangers…Cruz was starting to look like a perennial AAAA player, not good enough for the bigs and too good for AAA. Now he looks like a 40HR slugger with 25SB to go along with it. If there is one knock on Cruz it is that he is streaky, but when that wave rolls in you want to be on it. He also still struggles at times versus left-handed pitching (.721 OPS) but his obliteration of righties (.985) makes that point moot. Cruz is establishing himself as a top offensive talent and still many don’t even realize it.

Ben Zobrist, 2B/SS/OF Tampa Bay Rays…Maybe he is a late bloomer because Zobrist never showed this much ability in his minor league career. In a season where Rollins, Reyes and many other shortstops have been a disappointment, Zobrist has shined for the Rays. Granted he is probably due for a stat correction somewhere down the pipe, but he hasn’t cooled off yet clubbing at a .300 average with an OPS over 1.000. Yes, that high! With Iwamura out for the year, he might be working his way into being the starting second baseman for 2010.

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Articles, Son of Zim Ben Zobrist, Javier Vazquez, Kevin Slowey, Marco Scutaro, Mark DeRosa, Matt Cain, Nelson Cruz, Ryan Franklin, Shin-Soo Choo

draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Beginning in little league, pitchers are taught many different strategies in terms of how to pitch effectively. By far, the biggest key to pitching effectively is getting a first pitch strike. By getting ahead in the count,

Kevin Slowey - Icon SMI

pitchers are able to put more pressure on the hitter and are able to mix and match pitches more effectively. The same principle applies to the big leagues. Pitchers that are able to consistently get ahead of hitters have more success and thus are more valuable to clubs and also to fantasy owners. First I want to take a look at the First Pitch Strike Percentage leaders from 2008, and then look at the league leaders thus far in 2009.

With the exception of Vazquez (who still won 12 games) and Sonnanstine, (11) all the other pitchers had either great or very good ERA’s. Wins can be heavily influenced by team play, in this case hurting Maddux even though his 4.22 ERA was below the league average.  Santana, Lee and Sonnanstine can be considered surprises based on their performances in 2008 vs. career numbers. While I only listed the Top 10, a few other pitchers with high First Pitch Strike ratios had very good 2008 numbers. Of course, CC Sabathia (63.9), Johan Santana (63.8) and Roy Halladay (63.4) ranked in the Top 20. However, Ricky Nolasco (63.6, 15 wins, 3.52) and Nick Blackburn (63.6, 11 wins, 4.05 ERA) also ranked in the Top 20. While there’s many factors that went into Nolasco’s recent demotion (his unrealistic 0.402 BABIP, an opponents batting average of 0.349, and his  increased BB/9 ratio - from 1.78 to 2.68), his inability to get ahead of hitters as he did last year could also a be factor (his FS% dropped from 63.6 to 59.9). Getting ahead of the hitter is not the end all, be all, but in fantasy baseball, as in real baseball, I’d take a pitcher who can get ahead of hitters. By getting ahead, he could limit his pitch count and pitch deeper into games, giving fantasy owners more opportunities to secure wins.

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Articles, Draft Guru Dan Haren, Gil Meche, Javier Vazquez, Johan Santana, Kevin Slowey, Koji Uehara, Ricky Nolasco, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Ubaldo Jimenez

draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Dallas Braden - Icon SMI

April is officially in the books. There’s been one week surprises (Emilio Bonifacio), injuries to key players (Josh Hamilton, Brandon Webb) and flat out disappointments (Oliver Perez, Jhonny Peralta).  If you’ve been checking out the site on a regular basis, you have surely read some great analysis on the surprises/disappointments from the past month (If you haven’t been checking out the site, then it’s time to add it your favorites!).  Last week, I took a look at some of the best hitters of April 2008 and compared how they fared in April vs. the rest of the season. This week, I want to take a look at the ERA and Strikeout leaders from April 2008 and 2009 and see what players are primed to make an impact this year.

(Minimum 4 starts)

ERA:

*Smoltz only threw one inning the remainder of season (one start in June)

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Articles, Draft Guru Cliff Lee, Dallas Braden, Dan Haren, Edinson Volquez, Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vazquez, Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, Wandy Rodriguez, Zack Greinke

birdman@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Everyone knows about CC Sabathia, Francisco Rodriguez, and Adam Dunn all changing teams this offseason, but there are some signings or trades that will make a big difference even though they didn’t make the front page.

Brad Penny, SP

Old Team - Los Angeles Dodgers

New Team - Boston Red Sox

Penny, when healthy, is downright nasty.  Remember the 2006 All-Star Game in Pittsburgh, when he struck out Ichiro, Jeter and Big Papi in the 1^st inning?  Boston’s hoping he can be that kind of pitcher.  However, there’s a chance he could be the oft-injured hurler and just be a $5 million ornament on the DL.  Right now, he’s slated to be the 5^th starter (according to ESPN’s depth chart), so he could give you 12-13 wins and hopefully a bunch of K’s.

Ivan Rodriguez, C

Old Team - Detroit Tigers/New York Yankees

New Team - Houston Astros

It’s almost unfathomable that a 14-time All-Star catcher couldn’t find employment until the middle of March, but that’s where Pudge Rodriguez found himself while suiting up for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic.  Now with the Astros, he immediately becomes the starter behind the plate.  He also might be able to provide his owner with 2B eligibility.  If he can provide a line of .280/15/75, he’s an excellent option for an owner in a deep league and looking for another option at catcher and maybe even second base.

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Articles, Birdman Brad Penny, Ivan Rodriguez, Jason Isringhausen, Javier Vazquez, Ken Griffey, Rocco Baldelli

commish@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Let me start by asking a question.  Is it a good sign or a bad sign that two of my first four pick were the picks that I liked least?  As I prepared for the draft knowing that I had the #11 overall pick I had previously figured that I would be picking Chase Utley at #11 and then Carlos Beltran when my pick came back around at #14.  I was not however planning on 2 starting pitchers to be taken before I picked and was thus shocked when Mark Teixeira was still sitting there at 11.  So, as the clock wound down I kept going back and forth between Utley & Tex and ultimately decide to take the injured 2B over the 1B who is in the middle of the deepest lineup on the planet.  I basically convinced myself that Utley would be ready a week into the season at the latest and that Tex would have a typical Tex year and not make the jump that many predict him to.  I probably could have taken Tex and then hoped Utley fell to me in the 2^nd round, but the 90 seconds was not enough time to explore that avenue any further.

Ichiro Suzuki - Icon SMI

The other high draft pick that I made that I am not in love with was taking Ichiro Suzuki in the 4^th round at #38.  I have basically been letting Ichiro slide past me in other drafts that I have participated in, however for some reason I decided to grab him this time.  I actually have Alex Rios and Matt Kemp (both selected immediately after Ichiro) ranked higher and I also really like Curtis Granderson & Jacoby Ellsbury around this spot in the draft, but for some reason I was in a batting average loving mood on draft night.  I have also noticed that I have turned in to a stolen base fiend, so since those 2 categories define Ichiro I guess that is why he ended up on my team.  For the record, I see Ichiro losing some of his value in 2009, or worse yet after averaging 688 AB’s over the last 5 years he will probably get hurt, making me hate this pick even more.

As for my philosophy going into the draft, I decided to see how long I could wait to pull the trigger on any kind of pitching, either starting or closing.  By doing this I would presumably assemble a prolific offense, thus annihilating the rest of the league in the 5 hitting categories.  I also wanted to focus on grabbing hitters that were valuable for 2009.  That may seem obvious, but I have a tendency to focus on upside/youth when I draft so I didn’t want to avoid the players in their early to mid 30’s who still have a lot of talent over the 25 year old who has the ability to be as good or better than the already established player:  maybe that helps explain Ichiro.  I would save the youth/upside picks for my pitching staff.  If you wait as long as I did to take pitching you are going to need some wild cards to come up Aces for you.

Here is how it went down:

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Articles, FBG Writer's League Aramis Ramirez, Chase Utley, Corey Hart, Edinson Volquez, Gavin Floyd, Ichiro Suzuki, Javier Vazquez, John Maine, Josh Hamilton, Kevin Slowey, Matt Cain, Wandy Rodriguez

Here is a little primer to get you reacquainted with MLB 09. Looking at it quickly, here’s what peeked my fantasy interests team by team for the coming season. These interests will change and grow as the season nears as things become clearer through spring training. Everyone knows that finding the gems that exceed their draft potential is a key to winning and now is the time to begin getting some knowledge, figuring out who is in a good situation to succeed, and making first fantasy rankings. This is just an overview, a starting place. Here we go.

Diamondbacks: Youth…Potential…does a Hill of beans make? I’m not so sure. A healthy Byrnes moves Cojack back to 1B, making Tracy the odd man out it seems. The addition of Felipe Lopez could add stability, he’s a pro. Qualls as closer could be an issue.

Matt Holliday - ICON SMI

Braves: The addition of Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez will help a starting rotation that needed some but…it’s a pretty weak lineup that doesn’t really scare anyone in the NL East. The starting OF right now is Brandon Jones, Gregor Blanco, and Jeff Francoeur.

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Articles, PhattyBo Adam Jones, Carlos Gonzalez, Cliff Lee, Derek Lowe, Felipe Lopez, Felix Pie, Huston Street, Javier Vazquez, Jeff Francoeur, Milton Bradley