Fantasy Baseball Geeks

DoubleDown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Week 21 is almost completed and we have some things to discuss for the week ahead. Let’s review the players seeing their fantasy ownership on the move.

Most Added:

Omar Infante is a fantasy goldmine down the stretch as he is on fire and is eligible almost everywhere depending on your leagues rules (possibly 2B, SS, 3B, and OF).  Infante is now officially an everyday player following a sizzling July where he hit .429 for the month.  He has not slowed down torching August with a .362 AVG, 5 HR, 10 RBI, and 3 SB’s.  Infante is legit and should be added in all formats.  Owners should love the versatility to plug him into your lineups wherever you have a need.

Omar Infante - Icon SMI

Coco Crisp always looked like a 20/20 candidate, but it has just never happened.  It probably never will, but he is healthy again and providing solid production of late.  In July he delivered a weak AVG, but chipped in 10 SB’s.  In August he is hitting .322 with 3 HR and 9 SB’s.  He is a must in AL only and would be a fine 5^th OF in deeper mixed formats while he is rolling.

Yuniesky Betancourt is on fire this month whacking 6 jacks with a .324 AVG.  DD actually has no interest in recommending him in anything other than AL only.  This is the type of situation where all of the good he is capable of has just occurred, so you will be picking him up for the regression to his mean…which is mediocrity.

Chase Headley is currently a nice value play in NL only with 3B and OF eligibility.  DD really likes him as a breakout in 2011.  His stats this season have been solid as he is on pace for 13 HR, 20 SB’s, and 92 R.  At just 26 years of age his best years are right in front of him and I still expect him to press 20/20 with room for even more power by 2012.

Wilson Betemit is a decent enough player, but he is a lot like Betancourt.  At this point you just missed the good stuff he provided and now he will revert back to the mean of being a below league average option at 3B.  Take a pass people.

Rich Harden is one of those guys with nasty stuff and a DL record to make you nauseous.  He recently returned from the DL with shoulder tendinitis.  DD likes him in AL only on the road, but is he now a 5 inning pitcher throwing in a hitter’s paradise.  His stats on the season are also weak.  Harden is a definite mixed league streamer, but if he is facing a good lineup at home you might be in for the old cornhole.

Eric Young, Jr. is healthy and forcing his way into the Rockies lineup.  DD would add him in all formats as a 2B or MI because of his prolific speed.  EY2 is an absolute burner who over the course of a full season could challenge for the SB crown.

Ivan Nova is a great name.  Sounds like either a superhero or adult movie star.  Sometimes it is tough to distinguish between the two.  Nova is likely getting a spot start against the White Sox on Sunday for the Yankees.  DD would certainly add him in AL only, but everyone should temper expectations and be careful as he has an inconsistent minor league record and does not project as a top of the line starter.

Koji Uehara finds himself in the closer committee in Baltimore and has notched 2 of them thus far.  The team is atrocious and he does not have the official manager endorsement, so you had better be pretty desperate for saves to have him active.  If you are the Closer on a team that features Ty Wiggington as your #3 hitter you are in for a long season waiting for saves.

Cameron Maybin fits the DD mold to a T.  He was a prospect that was in the eyes of many in front of both Andrew McCutchen and Dexter Fowler in the toolsy CF pecking order.  Flash forward a couple of years and he has lost some of his luster.  Maybin is loaded with tools, however, and the Fish will run him out there on most days for the remainder of this season.  He has speed, power, will be hitting leadoff, and gets my endorsement for NL only and very deep mixed leagues.  DD will be all over him as a 2011 post hype sleeper.

Most Dropped:

Jeremy Hellickson was demoted to the minors to prepare to pitch in relief in September for the Rays.  This removes most of his value for this season, but he remains an elite pitching prospect to target on draft day 2011.

Edinson Volquez is potentially going to be out of the Reds rotation as he has been roughed up during his last couple of starts.  He had TJ surgery about a year ago and the trend is for pitchers to take closer to 2 years to come all the way back.  That would mean he will be a potential steal on draft day 2011.

Javier Vazquez was superb for Atlanta last season, but has stunk up the joint for the Bronx Bombers in his return to the Big Apple.  He is temporarily out of the rotation and his decreased velocity coupled with ineffectiveness make him a suspect option for the duration of 2010.

Whether you love me or hate me I am usually right.  Follow me on Twitter @DDGeek and keep the emails coming: doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Articles, Double Down Cameron Maybin, Chase Headley, Coco Crisp, Edinson Volquez, Eric Young, Ivan Nova, Javier Vazquez, Jeremy Hellickson, Jr., Koji Uehara, Omar Infante, Rich Harden, Wilson Betemit, Yuniesky Betancourt

SonofZim@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

New York Yankees

Javier Vazquez has turned things around which is no surprise (3-0 2.57 ERA in June), so you have missed your buy low window. Alex Rodriguez is starting to break down and no scientific concoction will be able to save him. He should be ok for 2010, but I would shop him hard at the deadline in keeper leagues. We have seen what hip injuries did to Carlos Delgado. Phil Hughes has emerged as an ace and right now is the best fantasy starter on the staff. A great keeper in deep leagues. Brett Gardner has come back to earth but he will be an asset in formats that honor steals for the rest of the year. Nick Swisher seems to be shortening his slumps this season and is a respectable DH/UT/CI in all leagues. Jorge Posada continues to rake and be a godsend at a weak catcher position, the old man still has a bat!

David Ortiz - Icon SMI

Boston Red Sox

The Sox offense awoke against the Phillies despite the abscence of Jacoby Ellsbury and a patchwork outfield. Ellsbury is at best a 2nd half ony guy right now so only hang onto him if you have a lead in steals, otherwise move on. Kevin Youkilis is having a great season, but Dustin Pedroia (.263 BA) has not quite been himself. David Ortiz is back from the grave yet again and has a chance at a 30/100 season. Jon Lester(7-2 89K) is one of the top 5 starters in fantasy and Clay Buchholz is climbing the ladder quickly behind him (8-4 2.52ERA). Josh Beckett is fragile and overrated and I for one would deal him as soon as he gets back on the mound.

Tampa Bay Rays

Sean Rodriguez has shown why he was a sleeper in spring the last two weeks with Jason Bartlett out on the DL. If he gets regular at bats his power makes him a possible breakout after the break. Carlos Pena exploded with 6 homers in 6 games and should be his usual streaky self for the remainder of 2010. Shop him off this hot streak. B.J. Upton is still a disappointment (.239 BA) except for steals (20). The pitching staff has not been quite as good after a brilliant April/May. Garza, Shields, Price and Niemann are all middle rotation starters so don’t rely on them as aces, even though they might deliver #1 type performances from time to time. Jeremy Hellickson continues to dominate in AAA and could still crack the roatation if an injury strikes or Wade Davis implodes.

Toronto Blue Jays

Jose Bautista has 18 homers and if you still own him you are a fool. DEAL HIM NOW! He is simply not this good and someone will bite. Don’t demand too much either. Vernon Wells could deliver a rare 30/100 season if he continues this pace, but he too might be a trade piece considering his history. Adam Lind(.210) and Aaron Hill(.186) have bombed after career years. Both should can’t be this bad all year so I would take a flyer on both. The Jays continue to get great pitching from Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil and Shaun Marcum.  Marcum might wear down, but Romero and Cecil should be useful going forward. If Dustin McGowan makes a successful return, he is a nice arm to stash and use down the stretch.

Baltimore Orioles

Nick Markakis 3 homers. Matt Wieters .235 BA. Kevin winless on the year. Brain Matusz 4.95 ERA. What more is there to say? Please move on there is nothing to see here.

Check out more Joe Pisapia “aka” Son of Zim at http://fanhuddle.com/fantasybaseballhuddle

And the Podcast at www.big2show.com covering Fantasy Baseball and Football

Follow me on Twitter @JoePisapia17 for your fantasy news and updates

Articles, Son of Zim Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, B.J. Utpon, Brett Cecil, Brett Gardner, Brian Matusz, Carlos Pena, Clay Buchholz, David Ortiz, David Price, Dustin McGowan, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, James Shields, Jason Batlett, Javier Vazquez, Jeff Niemann, Jeremy Hellickson, Joash Beckett, Jon Lester, Jorge Posada, Jose Bautista, Kevin Millwood, Kevin Youkilis, Matt Garza, Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis, Nick Swisher, Phil Hughes, Ricky Romero, Sean Rodriguez, Shaun Marcum, Vernon Wells, Wade Davis

TheKnife@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Buenos dias, amigos di Cutlery. Welcome back to the cutting board. Little update in the life of Knife: we’ve discovered that we will be welcoming a baby girl to the household come this September. Though this temporarily derails my dream of siring the next Ryan Braun, it’s a huge blessing for which we are beyond grateful. That is, until I go broke from my wife buying $500 boots for a toddler. F!

The 2010 MLB season is but a month old – a wee toddler in its own right. Let’s stick a cold rectal thermometer into the ass of this young season and check its temperature, shall we? We’ll group players according to their similarity to the wonders of child-rearing:

IPAD-like: Less Skilled than Flying Poo

One of my best friends, Graeme, reported the other day that his newborn sprayed wet diarrhea ACROSS THE ROOM, leaving his mark (literally) on the nursery. Much to the chagrin of Steve Jobs, I decided that this will henceforth be known as I-PAD (Infant Projectile Airborne Diarrhea). These players have been positively IPAD-esque thus far:

Carlos Lee (OF) – Avg: .162; HR: 0; RBI 5; SB: 1

Carlos Lee - Icon SMI

The Horse – El Caballo – has looked more like what comes out of a caballo’s backside. Hey, he’s a team leader, and he’s probably just trying to fit in with the rest of his horrible team.

Call the adoption agency? No. Keep the little pony, I say. He’ll likely regroup to hit around .300 and give you about 25 HRs, as well. Just don’t put up any new wallpaper until mid-May, or if you do, make it brown.

Javier Vazquez (SP) – ERA: 9.00; WHIP: 1.80; W/L: 1-3

Don’t say I didn’t warn you. In my very 1^st article, I identified this individual as airborne poo of the highest order. This didn’t end well the first time around, and it’s not looking pretty again this go-round – with Javier getting booed each time out.

Call the adoption agency? I would.  If you are stuck with him, I’d find the nearest Yankee fan and see if you can offload him. The problem is most Yankees fans despised him before he threw his first pitch this year, so you probably have to hope he trusts his stuff and makes a bit of a comeback.

Freshly Soiled Diapers: Playing with the Skill of a Newly Pinched Loaf

Jason Bay (OF) – Avg: .269 HR: 0; RBI: 5 SB: 1

Bay is doing his best David Wright 2009 impersonation this year – potentially letting the high LF wall at Citi Field get in his head. However, the Mets’ fortunes are looking better these days, and Bay has the talent to help lead the way.

Call the adoption agency? No. Keep Jason around, and he’ll reward you. Too good of a hitter to look like this for much longer.

Chad Qualls (RP) – ERA: 9.00; WHIP: 2.11; SV: 5

Qualls has been part of a super-awful bullpen tandem along with Juan Gutierrez. Each of them appears to want the closer’s job as much as they want to dive between Cathy Bates’ legs. Despite his 5 saves, Chad hasn’t given you much this year save some heartburn.

Call the adoption agency? Don’t think so. His peripherals will recover, as they have in the past 2 seasons. Call yourself lucky that Gutierrez has been even worse, providing Qualls some much-needed job security.

Smooth as a Baby’s Butt: Early Standouts

Jose Guillen (OF) – AVG: .346 HR: 7; RBI: 18; SB: 1

He’s been on a tear since the 1^st game of the season, and if you own him, you probably picked him off the wire (nice work). He’s on the woeful Royals – once a fantasy wasteland but now squeezing such fantasy stalwarts as Zack Greinke, Billy Butler, and Guillen out of its fantasy womb.

Start saving for Princeton? Negative, ghostrider. Jose has a hard time staying upright, and I’m not talking about his skill with the ladies. The dude is hurt. A lot. I’d take the under on his reaching 500 Abs this season, and if he gets traded (likely), I’d be surprised if he’s an everyday player on the contender to whom he’s dealt.

David Price (SP) – ERA: 2.20; WHIP: 1.05; K: 26; W/L: 3-1

DP has been throwing absolute pellets so far in 2010. He looks borderline unhittable at times, and despite the (deserved) fanfare around Matt Garza, James Shields, and Jeff Niemann, Price has been one of the most consistently dominant starters in MLB (right there w/ Garza, who has identical numbers).

Start saving for Princeton? Definitely. This infant is a prodigy and going places fast. I don’t see a lot of tailoff coming for Price, who could be one of the big breakouts of this season.

Casey McGehee (3B, 2B) – AVG: .329 HR: 5; RBI: 18; SB: 0

Between the 09-10 seasons (134 games), Casey at the bat is hitting .306 with 21 HR’s and 84 RBI’s. Those are some impressive numbers for a guy with eligibility at two shallow fantasy positions.

Start saving for Princeton? Hope for an academic scholarship. If you can overlook the fact that Vlad Guerrero looks more comfortable running than this guy does, he is a really good hitter. Plus, he has no trade value, so remember “hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things.”

Like Tears of Joy after Her First Step: MegaStuds of 2010

Miguel Cabrera (1B) – AVG: .363 HR: 5; RBI: 24

Unlike the clear studs (i.e. Albert Pujols), Cabrera entered the season with a teeny bit of concern due to his recovering from alcoholism and new (but improved) body shape. Well, he’s dispelled any worries about any of that. He has started at a torrid RBI pace (averaging more than 1 RBI per game) and is putting everything in play (except for those over the fence).

Eligible for Toddler Sainthood? Yes. Cabrera is firmly rooted in the elite class and won’t be moving out of it this season. NOT a Sell High situation. Don’t let him near any beedie-eyed babysitters.

Roy Halladay (SP) – ERA: 1.80 WHIP: 0.98; K: 33; W/L: 4-1

Some are saying that Ol’ Roy (the good one; not like that pansy ass coach from Chapel Hill) could win 25 games. That’s largely left to chance, but the point is this: he’s good. Real good. With the move from the AL to the NL (the Anti-Vazquez), Halladay is taking his wicked repertoire to the hindsides of every lineup he sees, reaching at least 7 IP in all 5 starts and averaging almost a K per inning.

Eligible for Toddler Sainthood? Of course. He can do no wrong. Little Roy could liquid-crap through the air onto any wall, and people would call it “art.”

The Knife is in his 3^rd season of writing for FBG.com. He is widely regarded as the most talented cutlery item currently composing articles about fake baseball. He lives in New York City with his wife Kelley (The Spoon), who is expecting a baby daughter, certain to be both verbose and silver. To ask a question, write to theknife@fantasybaseballgeeks.com.

Articles, The Knife Carlos Lee, Casey McGehee, Chad Qualls, David Price, Jason Bay, Javier Vazquez, Jose Guillen, Miguel Cabrera, Roy Halladay

ThePoet@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Brandon Webb or Jake Peavy

To me there isn’t a doubt in my mind I take Peavy 100 times out of 100. Webb is a sinkerballer coming back from shoulder surgery and he’s even being taken before Peavy in just about every draft. When is the last time a sinkerballer came back remotely close to who he was before after shoulder problems? With Peavy, even being banged up most of last year and pitching in the WBC, he still had a sub 3.5 ERA with a 9.74 K/9.  In fact five of his last six seasons he has had a sub 3.5 ERA. Sure his new park isn’t nearly as pitching friendly but his velocity in ’09 was virtually identical to that of ’08 and you can’t say the same about Brandon Webb’s velocity right now. Peavy is a legit number 2 on your fantasy squad this year, if not a co-number 1 depending on your draft strategy; while Webb should be avoided like Brandon Wood’s career .192 batting average (some “experts” actually think he’s a sleeper).

Todd Helton - Icon SMI

Todd Helton or Chris Davis

Davis seems likely to put up .270/30/90 this year while Helton’s year will look like .310/15/80. For me the choice here is one of draft intelligence for your third corner infielder. Davis is fine and gives any team a solid power boost. However, if you take Helton and pair him with a guy like Adam Dunn he can offset Dunn’s poor BA so they can combine for a .280/55/180 line all while doing this in the later rounds. If you don’t happen to grab an elite first baseman in the early rounds, worry not my friends Todd Helton can help save your teams batting average if you fall in love with Dan Uggla on draft day. However, if previous picks in your draft have solid batting averages give the nod to Davis and his Jay Bruce like power potential.

Ubaldo Jimenez or Javier Vazquez

At first glance you probably didn’t think this was a contest because Javy is ranked higher by all the “experts” and he’s coming off a stellar season. Well the correct choice here is Ubaldo and you can get him two rounds later in the draft. See if you can answer these “True or False” statements correctly.

A) Javy has had an ERA north of 4.4 four of his last six years

B) Javy has been in the top 10 in HRs allowed six of his last eight years

C) Javy now plays at the new Yankee Stadium

If you guessed “True” to all three of these statements you would be right. Sure Javy is good for 180 K’s and 14 or 15 wins, but taking Ubaldo is safer this year especially when factoring in the ADP for these two.

Read more…

Articles, The Poet Andrew McCutchen, Brandon Webb, Chris Davis, Dexter Fowler, Jake Peavy, Javier Vazquez, Todd Helton, Ubaldo Jimenez

Sonofzim@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Every year we go into spring training with certain things we take for granted as locks. Brandon Webb will throw 200 innings, Carlos Beltran will threaten 30/30, Manny Ramirez will drive in 100 runs etc etc. But in the game of baseball, there are no “sure things” and fantasy owners must always prepare for the WHAT IF scenarios. Here are a few scenarios that might shock you now but would not surprise me in the least.

Jose Reyes - Icon SMI

The Yankee Rotation Falters

I know that the Yankees are the odds on favorite to repeat as champs and they should be. However, I can easily see the rotation falling off a cliff in a matter of weeks. Andy Pettitte is no spring chicken, A.J. Burnett usually spends time on the DL at some point, Javier Vazquez is a 4.50 ERA pitcher in the AL who is apt to surrender the long ball in the best homerun park I have seen in years and neither member of the Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes duo have yet to distinguish themselves as a starter or sustain a 200 inning season. Even C.C. Sabathia is known to be woeful in April during his career. I am not saying all of these things will happen or any of them, but there is a lot of room for error here and the wheels could come off. So fantasy owners, you are on notice.

The White Sox Win the AL Central

The Twins and Tigers battled to the last day of the season and then some, but this new look Sox squad is now built around pitching and primed for a run. Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd and John Danks give the Southsiders the deepest rotation in the division and if Carlos Quentin rebounds and Gordon Beckham takes another step forward they will be in the playoffs and offer some great fantasy options.

Josh Hamilton Disappoints

Just a gut feeling.

The Mets Make the Playoffs

Teams with a chip on their shoulder and zero expectations are dangerous. There is a lot to prove top to bottom here and stranger things have happened. They could develop that “us against the world” mentality and their outfield is much improved from 2009. Jose Reyes is the key and he could be the best fantasy value in 2010 based on his ADP even if he does hit 3^rd for the first few months of the season.

Read more…

Articles, Son of Zim A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Aroldis Chapman, Brandon Webb, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Quentin, CC Sabathia, Gavin Floyd, Gordon Beckham, J.D. Drew, Jake Peavy, Javier Vazquez, Jered Weaver, Joba Chamberlain, John Danks, Jose Reyes, Josh Hamilton, Kendry Morales, Manny Ramirez, Mark Buehrle, Mark Prior, Phil Hughes, Roy Oswalt, Stephen Strasburg

Theknife@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

March is in the air. The snow melts. The birds begin to chirp. Duke gets run off the floor in the Sweet 16 by – um…how do I put this? – a “more athletic” squad. As part of this annual ritual, we also begin to prepare for fantasy baseball, and that means a DRAFT – the best part about the best fantasy sport the human race has yet conjured.

David Wright - Icon SMI

In the past few years, the Knife has had varying levels of fantasy baseball success – winning a couple leagues and finishing near the cellar a couple times, as well. Like a disgraced politician who finds his past transgressions exposed to the public, I have a spin on this: “Hey, I’ve been there. Do you want to trust some loser who’s never taken any risks and is cleaner than Dakota Fanning’s opening? No, you want someone who’s taken a few risks and paid the price along the way.” And thus, with a reference to a child actor’s private parts, we kick off the Geeks column season, and what better way than a list of advisory tidbits for the coming season. Good luck to all!

1. Beware the fluff piece. You know what I’m talking about here. Every year, some reporter writes an article about how the ball just “sounds different” off the bat of Player A, or that Player B showed up to camp about 15 pounds slimmer. This can incite fantasy beer goggles and should be discounted appropriately. I’m not saying these players will suck; just that they won’t take huge leaps. Good examples this year: Andruw Jones, Miguel Cabrera, Aaron Rowand

2. Beware the mega-hyped rookie. Last year, Matt Wieters was pronounced the Second Coming of Jehovah. He was in the minors for a while and then came up to the Big Show and did….just OK. Teams are generally committed to bringing these rookies along slowly, so invest carefully in these guys. Good examples this year: Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, Buster Posey

3. Don’t ignore batting average. A few times, I’ve focused solely on power at the expense of batting average. Big mistake. Not only is BA nearly impossible to recover late in the season, but players with low BAs also don’t get on base a lot, and thus don’t score a lot. Double whammy. When in doubt between 2 players on draft day, take the average.

4. Chill out about Citi Field. People are freaking out on both sides of this. One, they lowered the fences in CF over the off-season so some people are now assuming we’ll have a nightly HR derby. Wrong. Two, other people have heard the hype from last season, attributed David Wright’s HR drought to his home field, and begun discounting players like Jason Bay (new addition to the Mets) wayyy too much. Check out Wright’s HR splits. He hit only 5 HRs in Citi Field, but when he escaped this Black Hole of Power and went on the road, he smashed a whopping…5 HRs. Citi Field was actually towards the middle of the pack HR-wise. Ignore it.

5. Going to El Rio Mexican restaurant – or any other tequila-serving establishment – and getting near black-out drunk (ok, black-out drunk) before your draft tends to lead to some questionable decisions. “How in the hell did I end up with Pedro Borbon!?”

Read more…

Articles, The Knife Aaron Rowand, Andruw Jones, Bengie Molina, Brett Anderson, Buster Posey, David Wright, Derrek Lee, Jason Bay, Jason Heyward, Javier Vazquez, Joe Morgan, Joel Pineiro, John Smoltz, Jonathan Sanchez, Kevin Slowey, Matt Holliday, Matt Wieters, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Cameron, Orlando Hudson, Placido Polanco, Rafael Soriano, Raul Ibanez, Rick Reilly, Roy Halladay, Stephen A. Smith, Stephen Strasburg, Wade Davis

OCDFantasy@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Over the past three decades, fantasy baseball championships have been dictated by Post-All Star Break play.  While I’m sure you have pitchers like CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, and Tim Lincecum on your mind, it’s important to keep your eye on the stealthy guy that stands on the mound.  I know, many owners got caught up in their preparations for their fantasy football draft and overlooked such impact players.  Since you happen to be reading this, I’m assuming you’re not one of them.  Remember: Fantasy Baseball leagues are won in the latter part of the season, not after draft day.  So keep your eyes peeled for those hidden gems that pay off big dividends for a championship run.  Here I’ve listed some of the top pitchers following the All-Star break and how they could impact your team come 2010:

Bronson Arroyo - Icon SMI

Bye-Bye Cornrows - Remember when Bronson Arroyo (SP, CIN) traded his cornrows for bleach upon his move from Boston to Cincinnati?  With those days long behind him, the longhaired beast went on a second half rampage, recording a 6-5 record while boasting a 2.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in just over 108 innings-pitched.  It took 15 starts but the 32-year-old Arroyo managed a 24/68 walk-to-strikeout ratio. For the season he had a 3.84 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, but his future success is contingent on how good the Reds want to be in 2010.  They have a solid lineup which features Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Scott Rolen, in addition to a legitimate closer option in Francisco Cordero.  Regardless of his second-half output, it would be wise to hold off on selecting Arroyo.  He’ll most likely be over-drafted in most formats by owners claiming they got a steal!

Thin Air? – Who said you can’t pitch in Colorado?  Ubaldo Jimenez (SP, COL) proved all critics wrong after the break, and fantasy owners reaped the benefits.  In 15 starts he carried a 3.08 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and 39/97 walk-to-strikeout ratio.  During the season the 25-year-old managed to put together a 15-12 record with a 198 K’s. Not too shabby for a youngster!  The opposition was only able to bat .229 against him, claiming ninth overall amongst National League pitchers. He’s got viable run support with the likes of Troy Tulowitzki on board, and if Huston Street falters, he’s got Taylor Buchholz to pick it up. From a fantasy perspective, the picture doesn’t get any prettier.  He’s got great upside and enough talent around him to perform at a tremendously high level. Select him, and you’ll be happy you did.

Read more…

Articles, OCDFantasy Adrian Gonzalez, Alfonso Soriano, Andrew Bailey, Aramis Ramirez, Atlanta Braves, A’s, Bill Wagner, Brian McCann, Brian Wilson, Bronson Arroyo, CC Sabathia, Chicago Cubs, Chipper Jones, Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies, Derrek Lee, Houston Astros, Huston Street, Jair Jurrjens, Jason Bay, Javier Vazquez, Joe Nathan, Jose Valverde, Kevin Correia, Kevin Gregg, Matt Holliday, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, Nate McClouth, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Prince Fielder, Roy Halladay, Ryan Braun, San Diego Padres, Scott Baker, Takashi Saito, Taylor Buchholz, Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum, Toronto Blue Jays, Trevor Hoffman, Troy Tulowitzki, Ubaldo Jimenez

sonofzim@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

“Strikeouts are boring. Besides they’re fascist.” – Crash Davis Bull Durham

From a real life baseball perspective this is probably true, but in fantasy I like my pitchers like Mussolini!! The more K’s the better! Some leagues value pitcher strikeouts more than others. One thing is clear if you own a top tier strikeout specialist (or 2) you are probably still in the hunt for a fantasy crown.

Pitchers like Justin Verlander and Tim Lincecum make their own good luck. They limit base runners, which reduces runs scored, which lowers ERA and ultimately leads to wins. Here is a list of the top MLB strikeout artists year-to-date:

Building your rotation around these types of powers arms will provide explosiveness in head-to-head leagues. A two-start Dan Haren or Zack Greinke week can be an automatic win for you. The surprising name on this list is Adam Wainwright who has really stepped up his game this year and become an elite starter. Felix Hernandez is turning into “The King” he was prophesized to be three years ago, while Jon Lester is taking a step closer to being the best lefty in the game. And lastly, Javier Vazquez has proven there is life after the American League.

Tim Lincecum - Icon SMI

The other great thing about strikeout pitchers is when they have an “off night” they still find a way to come out on the positive end when it comes to points. I have had several starts from Greinke since the all-star break that have resulted in a loss for the Royals, but double digit positive points for Zack.

What separates the best of the best is K/BB ratio. That is why Roy Halladay, Greinke, and Haren are so valuable and conversely why Chad Billingsley has had his ups and downs. Some strikeout pitchers tend to walk too many hitters because they want to strikeout the world, like Ubaldo Jimenez for instance. This will lead to increased pitch counts and shorter outings. Guess what happens then? The fate of your win rests in the hands of a bullpen. Verlander suffered from this plight last season, but in 2009 he has only 46BB in 159IP, making him a Cy Young contender.

We are seeing a rebirth of the dominant starter in the post-PED era. Fantasy owners must take heed and realize 50 homerun seasons are a thing of the past, but 300K seasons are on the comeback trail!

After Pujols and Hanley, gimme Timmy every time!

HELPFUL HINT: You can’t always control whether a pitcher comes away with a W when he deserves it. All you can do is monitor his secondary numbers. THAT is what makes a fantasy ace.

Articles, Son of Zim Adam Wainwright, Chad Billingsley, Dan Haren, Felix Hernandez, Javier Vazquez, Jon Lester, Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Ubaldo Jimenez, Zack Greinke

sonofzim@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Every year there are winning teams that have key players that were drafted late or undrafted all together that end up becoming integral pieces of a fantasy crown. Here are some players that have performed better than expected over the first few months of the season.

Shin-Soo Choo, OF Clevaland Indians…Many owners expected Choo to be a flash in the pan, but not the Zim. (check the record) Choo has a nice combination of speed and power with a good average and nice on base skills to boot. How many guys have an OPS over .850? Choo does. He is on pace for a quiet 100 RBI 100 R 30 SB season. Hmmm…sounds a lot like a Grady Sizemore stat line at a 1/3 of the cost.

Nelson Cruz - Icon SMI

Nelson Cruz, OF Texas Rangers…Cruz was starting to look like a perennial AAAA player, not good enough for the bigs and too good for AAA. Now he looks like a 40HR slugger with 25SB to go along with it. If there is one knock on Cruz it is that he is streaky, but when that wave rolls in you want to be on it. He also still struggles at times versus left-handed pitching (.721 OPS) but his obliteration of righties (.985) makes that point moot. Cruz is establishing himself as a top offensive talent and still many don’t even realize it.

Ben Zobrist, 2B/SS/OF Tampa Bay Rays…Maybe he is a late bloomer because Zobrist never showed this much ability in his minor league career. In a season where Rollins, Reyes and many other shortstops have been a disappointment, Zobrist has shined for the Rays. Granted he is probably due for a stat correction somewhere down the pipe, but he hasn’t cooled off yet clubbing at a .300 average with an OPS over 1.000. Yes, that high! With Iwamura out for the year, he might be working his way into being the starting second baseman for 2010.

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Articles, Son of Zim Ben Zobrist, Javier Vazquez, Kevin Slowey, Marco Scutaro, Mark DeRosa, Matt Cain, Nelson Cruz, Ryan Franklin, Shin-Soo Choo

draftguru@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

Beginning in little league, pitchers are taught many different strategies in terms of how to pitch effectively. By far, the biggest key to pitching effectively is getting a first pitch strike. By getting ahead in the count,

Kevin Slowey - Icon SMI

pitchers are able to put more pressure on the hitter and are able to mix and match pitches more effectively. The same principle applies to the big leagues. Pitchers that are able to consistently get ahead of hitters have more success and thus are more valuable to clubs and also to fantasy owners. First I want to take a look at the First Pitch Strike Percentage leaders from 2008, and then look at the league leaders thus far in 2009.

With the exception of Vazquez (who still won 12 games) and Sonnanstine, (11) all the other pitchers had either great or very good ERA’s. Wins can be heavily influenced by team play, in this case hurting Maddux even though his 4.22 ERA was below the league average.  Santana, Lee and Sonnanstine can be considered surprises based on their performances in 2008 vs. career numbers. While I only listed the Top 10, a few other pitchers with high First Pitch Strike ratios had very good 2008 numbers. Of course, CC Sabathia (63.9), Johan Santana (63.8) and Roy Halladay (63.4) ranked in the Top 20. However, Ricky Nolasco (63.6, 15 wins, 3.52) and Nick Blackburn (63.6, 11 wins, 4.05 ERA) also ranked in the Top 20. While there’s many factors that went into Nolasco’s recent demotion (his unrealistic 0.402 BABIP, an opponents batting average of 0.349, and his  increased BB/9 ratio – from 1.78 to 2.68), his inability to get ahead of hitters as he did last year could also a be factor (his FS% dropped from 63.6 to 59.9). Getting ahead of the hitter is not the end all, be all, but in fantasy baseball, as in real baseball, I’d take a pitcher who can get ahead of hitters. By getting ahead, he could limit his pitch count and pitch deeper into games, giving fantasy owners more opportunities to secure wins.

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Articles, Draft Guru Dan Haren, Gil Meche, Javier Vazquez, Johan Santana, Kevin Slowey, Koji Uehara, Ricky Nolasco, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Ubaldo Jimenez